feat(my-bets): personal bet journal with CLV tracking
Adds a manual bet-tracking journal that turns the analyzer into an actual bet tracker. Users record wagers; the journal auto-grades them when event results land and computes per-bet Closing-Line-Value against the latest pre-match snapshot — the strongest long-run indicator of betting skill. Domain: - PlacedBet entity (reuses Bet vocabulary for Scope/Type/Side/Value/Rate) with stake, placed-at, outcome, and notes. Derived GrossReturn / NetProfit. - BetOutcome enum (Pending / Won / Lost / Void). - BetOutcomeResolver: pure function grading any Match-scope bet against an EventResult. Handles 1X2, draws, handicap (incl. push), and totals. Period-scope bets stay manual since EventResult only carries full-time. Application: - IPlacedBetRepository abstraction. - ClosingLineValueCalculator: pure CLV math (implied-probability delta) + snapshot-matching predicate by Scope/Type/Side/Value. - BetJournalReport + BetJournalStats records. - Four use cases: Record / ResolvePending / BuildReport / Delete. - New ISnapshotRepository.GetLatestPreMatchAsync pushes the closing-line pick into a single SQLite query rather than materialising the 30-day window in memory per event. - ROI turnover excludes Void stakes — pushes are not real turnover and including them would dilute the user's edge. Infrastructure: - PlacedBetEntity / Configuration / Repository / Mapping helpers. - 20260516 migration adding the PlacedBets table with EventCode and Outcome indices. Intentionally NO foreign key to Events — the journal is user data and must survive snapshot-retention pruning. Covered by an explicit round-trip test. UI: - Pages/MyBets/Journal.razor: hero header, 4-card KPI strip (ROI / strike rate / avg CLV / net profit, tinted by tone), inline add-bet form with the same invariants as the Bet record, drill-down table with per-row outcome pills, CLV percentage-points column, P&L, notes underline, and inline-confirm delete. RU + EN i18n. - Nav entry under Analysis. Tests: +55 across Domain / Application / Infrastructure (resolver math including handicap push and total push boundaries, PlacedBet invariants and derived properties, CLV math + null-handling, four use cases under NSubstitute, EF round-trip including survives-event-deletion). All 379 tests pass. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,172 @@
|
||||
using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
|
||||
using Marathon.Application.Betting;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
|
||||
using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
|
||||
using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Builds a <see cref="BetJournalReport"/>: every persisted bet paired with its
|
||||
/// Closing-Line-Value, plus aggregate <see cref="BetJournalStats"/>.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
/// <remarks>
|
||||
/// <para>
|
||||
/// Closing-line lookup: for each distinct event in the journal, this use case
|
||||
/// queries pre-match snapshots within a window that ends at the event's
|
||||
/// <see cref="Event.ScheduledAt"/> and picks the latest snapshot whose
|
||||
/// <see cref="OddsSnapshot.CapturedAt"/> is still before kickoff. That snapshot
|
||||
/// is the "close" for CLV purposes.
|
||||
/// </para>
|
||||
/// <para>
|
||||
/// If the snapshot store has nothing within the lookback window, the bet
|
||||
/// receives a null CLV. Stats then exclude it from the average.
|
||||
/// </para>
|
||||
/// </remarks>
|
||||
public sealed class BuildBetJournalReportUseCase
|
||||
{
|
||||
private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
|
||||
private readonly IEventRepository _events;
|
||||
private readonly ISnapshotRepository _snapshots;
|
||||
private readonly ILogger<BuildBetJournalReportUseCase> _logger;
|
||||
|
||||
public BuildBetJournalReportUseCase(
|
||||
IPlacedBetRepository bets,
|
||||
IEventRepository events,
|
||||
ISnapshotRepository snapshots,
|
||||
ILogger<BuildBetJournalReportUseCase> logger)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
|
||||
_events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
|
||||
_snapshots = snapshots ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(snapshots));
|
||||
_logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
public async Task<BetJournalReport> ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken ct = default)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var bets = await _bets.ListAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
if (bets.Count == 0)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation("BuildBetJournalReportUseCase: no bets — empty report");
|
||||
return new BetJournalReport(BetJournalStats.Empty, Array.Empty<BetJournalRow>());
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
var distinctEventIds = bets.Select(b => b.EventId).Distinct().ToList();
|
||||
|
||||
// Resolve closing snapshot per event using a single-row repo call —
|
||||
// pushes the ORDER BY / LIMIT 1 down to SQLite rather than materialising
|
||||
// every snapshot in a 30-day window.
|
||||
var closingByEvent = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, OddsSnapshot?>(distinctEventIds.Count);
|
||||
foreach (var eventId in distinctEventIds)
|
||||
{
|
||||
ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
|
||||
|
||||
var ev = await _events.GetAsync(eventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
if (ev is null)
|
||||
{
|
||||
closingByEvent[eventId] = null;
|
||||
continue;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
var closing = await _snapshots
|
||||
.GetLatestPreMatchAsync(eventId, ev.ScheduledAt, ct)
|
||||
.ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
|
||||
closingByEvent[eventId] = closing;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
var rows = new List<BetJournalRow>(bets.Count);
|
||||
foreach (var bet in bets)
|
||||
{
|
||||
ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
|
||||
closingByEvent.TryGetValue(bet.EventId, out var closing);
|
||||
|
||||
var clv = ClosingLineValueCalculator.TryCompute(
|
||||
takenRate: bet.Selection.Rate.Value,
|
||||
placedSelection: bet.Selection,
|
||||
closingSnapshot: closing);
|
||||
|
||||
rows.Add(new BetJournalRow(bet, clv));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
rows.Sort((a, b) => b.Bet.PlacedAt.CompareTo(a.Bet.PlacedAt));
|
||||
|
||||
var stats = ComputeStats(rows);
|
||||
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation(
|
||||
"BuildBetJournalReportUseCase: report built — {Total} bets, {Resolved} resolved, ROI={Roi:0.##}%",
|
||||
stats.TotalBets, stats.ResolvedCount, stats.RoiPercent ?? 0m);
|
||||
|
||||
return new BetJournalReport(stats, rows);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static BetJournalStats ComputeStats(IReadOnlyList<BetJournalRow> rows)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (rows.Count == 0) return BetJournalStats.Empty;
|
||||
|
||||
var pending = 0;
|
||||
var won = 0;
|
||||
var lost = 0;
|
||||
var voided = 0;
|
||||
// Industry-standard ROI excludes pushes from turnover — staking on a Void
|
||||
// bet returns the stake and is functionally a no-op, so counting it as
|
||||
// turnover dilutes the ROI denominator and understates the user's edge.
|
||||
// Only Won + Lost contribute to TotalStaked / TotalReturned.
|
||||
var totalStaked = 0m;
|
||||
var totalReturned = 0m;
|
||||
decimal clvSum = 0m;
|
||||
var clvCount = 0;
|
||||
|
||||
foreach (var row in rows)
|
||||
{
|
||||
switch (row.Bet.Outcome)
|
||||
{
|
||||
case BetOutcome.Pending: pending++; break;
|
||||
case BetOutcome.Won: won++; break;
|
||||
case BetOutcome.Lost: lost++; break;
|
||||
case BetOutcome.Void: voided++; break;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (row.Bet.Outcome is BetOutcome.Won or BetOutcome.Lost)
|
||||
{
|
||||
totalStaked += row.Bet.Stake;
|
||||
totalReturned += row.Bet.GrossReturn ?? 0m;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (row.ClvProbabilityDelta is { } clv)
|
||||
{
|
||||
clvSum += clv;
|
||||
clvCount++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
var netProfit = totalReturned - totalStaked;
|
||||
var winLoss = won + lost;
|
||||
|
||||
decimal? roi = totalStaked > 0m
|
||||
? Math.Round((netProfit / totalStaked) * 100m, 2)
|
||||
: null;
|
||||
decimal? strikeRate = winLoss > 0
|
||||
? Math.Round(((decimal)won / winLoss) * 100m, 2)
|
||||
: null;
|
||||
// CLV inputs are already 6-decimal-rounded by ClosingLineValueCalculator;
|
||||
// round the mean only at the display boundary to avoid compounding bias.
|
||||
decimal? avgClv = clvCount > 0
|
||||
? clvSum / clvCount
|
||||
: null;
|
||||
|
||||
return new BetJournalStats(
|
||||
TotalBets: rows.Count,
|
||||
PendingCount: pending,
|
||||
WonCount: won,
|
||||
LostCount: lost,
|
||||
VoidCount: voided,
|
||||
TotalStaked: totalStaked,
|
||||
TotalReturned: totalReturned,
|
||||
NetProfit: netProfit,
|
||||
RoiPercent: roi,
|
||||
StrikeRatePercent: strikeRate,
|
||||
AverageClvProbabilityDelta: avgClv);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
|
||||
using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
|
||||
using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Removes a <see cref="Marathon.Domain.Entities.PlacedBet"/> from the journal
|
||||
/// by its identifier. Silent no-op when the id does not exist.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public sealed class DeletePlacedBetUseCase
|
||||
{
|
||||
private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
|
||||
private readonly ILogger<DeletePlacedBetUseCase> _logger;
|
||||
|
||||
public DeletePlacedBetUseCase(
|
||||
IPlacedBetRepository bets,
|
||||
ILogger<DeletePlacedBetUseCase> logger)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
|
||||
_logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
public async Task ExecuteAsync(Guid betId, CancellationToken ct = default)
|
||||
{
|
||||
await _bets.DeleteAsync(betId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
await _bets.SaveChangesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation("DeletePlacedBetUseCase: removed bet {BetId}", betId);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
|
||||
using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
|
||||
using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
|
||||
using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Records a new <see cref="PlacedBet"/> entered manually via the Journal UI.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
/// <remarks>
|
||||
/// <para>
|
||||
/// The use case validates that the referenced event exists, then persists the
|
||||
/// bet. If the event already has a final result the bet is graded on the spot
|
||||
/// via <see cref="Marathon.Domain.Betting.BetOutcomeResolver"/> — saves the
|
||||
/// user a round-trip to the resolver page when entering historical wagers.
|
||||
/// </para>
|
||||
/// </remarks>
|
||||
public sealed class RecordPlacedBetUseCase
|
||||
{
|
||||
private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
|
||||
private readonly IEventRepository _events;
|
||||
private readonly IResultRepository _results;
|
||||
private readonly ILogger<RecordPlacedBetUseCase> _logger;
|
||||
|
||||
public RecordPlacedBetUseCase(
|
||||
IPlacedBetRepository bets,
|
||||
IEventRepository events,
|
||||
IResultRepository results,
|
||||
ILogger<RecordPlacedBetUseCase> logger)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
|
||||
_events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
|
||||
_results = results ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(results));
|
||||
_logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Persists <paramref name="bet"/>. Returns the bet as stored — if the
|
||||
/// event already has a result, the returned instance reflects the graded
|
||||
/// <see cref="BetOutcome"/>.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
/// <exception cref="InvalidOperationException">
|
||||
/// The bet references an unknown event. The journal does not allow free-form
|
||||
/// event codes — wagers must be on events the scraper has captured so the
|
||||
/// CLV calculator can compare against the closing snapshot.
|
||||
/// </exception>
|
||||
public async Task<PlacedBet> ExecuteAsync(PlacedBet bet, CancellationToken ct = default)
|
||||
{
|
||||
ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(bet);
|
||||
|
||||
// Confirm the event exists in the local store.
|
||||
var ev = await _events.GetAsync(bet.EventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
if (ev is null)
|
||||
{
|
||||
throw new InvalidOperationException(
|
||||
$"Cannot record a bet on unknown event '{bet.EventId.Value}'. " +
|
||||
"The event must already be present in the scrape store.");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
var toPersist = bet;
|
||||
|
||||
// Auto-grade if a result is already available.
|
||||
if (bet.Outcome == BetOutcome.Pending)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var result = await _results.GetAsync(bet.EventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
if (result is not null)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var graded = Marathon.Domain.Betting.BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet.Selection, result);
|
||||
if (graded is not null)
|
||||
{
|
||||
toPersist = bet.WithOutcome(graded.Value);
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation(
|
||||
"RecordPlacedBetUseCase: bet {BetId} on event {EventId} auto-graded as {Outcome}",
|
||||
toPersist.Id, ((DomainEventId)toPersist.EventId).Value, graded.Value);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
await _bets.AddAsync(toPersist, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
await _bets.SaveChangesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation(
|
||||
"RecordPlacedBetUseCase: persisted bet {BetId} on event {EventId} stake={Stake} rate={Rate}",
|
||||
toPersist.Id, ((DomainEventId)toPersist.EventId).Value, toPersist.Stake, toPersist.Selection.Rate.Value);
|
||||
|
||||
return toPersist;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
|
||||
using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Betting;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
|
||||
using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
|
||||
using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
|
||||
using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Sweeps the journal for <see cref="BetOutcome.Pending"/> bets whose events
|
||||
/// have been graded, and updates them in bulk via
|
||||
/// <see cref="BetOutcomeResolver"/>.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
/// <remarks>
|
||||
/// Called on demand from the Journal page's "Resolve pending" button. The
|
||||
/// design is idempotent — bets that cannot be auto-graded (period-scope, or
|
||||
/// no result yet) are left untouched and surface again on the next pass.
|
||||
/// </remarks>
|
||||
public sealed class ResolvePendingBetsUseCase
|
||||
{
|
||||
private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
|
||||
private readonly IResultRepository _results;
|
||||
private readonly ILogger<ResolvePendingBetsUseCase> _logger;
|
||||
|
||||
public ResolvePendingBetsUseCase(
|
||||
IPlacedBetRepository bets,
|
||||
IResultRepository results,
|
||||
ILogger<ResolvePendingBetsUseCase> logger)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
|
||||
_results = results ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(results));
|
||||
_logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Returns the number of bets that were transitioned out of Pending in this pass.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public async Task<int> ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken ct = default)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var pending = await _bets.ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome.Pending, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
if (pending.Count == 0)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation("ResolvePendingBetsUseCase: no pending bets");
|
||||
return 0;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Cache results per event so we do not re-query for each bet on the same event.
|
||||
var resultCache = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, EventResult?>();
|
||||
var resolvedCount = 0;
|
||||
|
||||
foreach (var bet in pending)
|
||||
{
|
||||
ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
|
||||
|
||||
if (!resultCache.TryGetValue(bet.EventId, out var result))
|
||||
{
|
||||
result = await _results.GetAsync(bet.EventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
resultCache[bet.EventId] = result;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (result is null) continue;
|
||||
|
||||
var graded = BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet.Selection, result);
|
||||
if (graded is null) continue;
|
||||
|
||||
var updated = bet.WithOutcome(graded.Value);
|
||||
await _bets.UpdateAsync(updated, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
resolvedCount++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Save before logging — if the batch fails, an exception bubbles out and
|
||||
// the success-count log is never emitted; we never report a graded count
|
||||
// that was rolled back.
|
||||
if (resolvedCount > 0)
|
||||
await _bets.SaveChangesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
|
||||
|
||||
_logger.LogInformation(
|
||||
"ResolvePendingBetsUseCase: graded {Resolved} of {Pending} pending bets",
|
||||
resolvedCount, pending.Count);
|
||||
|
||||
return resolvedCount;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user