feat(my-bets): personal bet journal with CLV tracking

Adds a manual bet-tracking journal that turns the analyzer into an actual
bet tracker. Users record wagers; the journal auto-grades them when event
results land and computes per-bet Closing-Line-Value against the latest
pre-match snapshot — the strongest long-run indicator of betting skill.

Domain:
- PlacedBet entity (reuses Bet vocabulary for Scope/Type/Side/Value/Rate)
  with stake, placed-at, outcome, and notes. Derived GrossReturn / NetProfit.
- BetOutcome enum (Pending / Won / Lost / Void).
- BetOutcomeResolver: pure function grading any Match-scope bet against an
  EventResult. Handles 1X2, draws, handicap (incl. push), and totals.
  Period-scope bets stay manual since EventResult only carries full-time.

Application:
- IPlacedBetRepository abstraction.
- ClosingLineValueCalculator: pure CLV math (implied-probability delta) +
  snapshot-matching predicate by Scope/Type/Side/Value.
- BetJournalReport + BetJournalStats records.
- Four use cases: Record / ResolvePending / BuildReport / Delete.
- New ISnapshotRepository.GetLatestPreMatchAsync pushes the closing-line
  pick into a single SQLite query rather than materialising the 30-day
  window in memory per event.
- ROI turnover excludes Void stakes — pushes are not real turnover and
  including them would dilute the user's edge.

Infrastructure:
- PlacedBetEntity / Configuration / Repository / Mapping helpers.
- 20260516 migration adding the PlacedBets table with EventCode and
  Outcome indices. Intentionally NO foreign key to Events — the journal
  is user data and must survive snapshot-retention pruning. Covered by an
  explicit round-trip test.

UI:
- Pages/MyBets/Journal.razor: hero header, 4-card KPI strip (ROI / strike
  rate / avg CLV / net profit, tinted by tone), inline add-bet form with
  the same invariants as the Bet record, drill-down table with per-row
  outcome pills, CLV percentage-points column, P&L, notes underline, and
  inline-confirm delete. RU + EN i18n.
- Nav entry under Analysis.

Tests: +55 across Domain / Application / Infrastructure (resolver math
including handicap push and total push boundaries, PlacedBet invariants
and derived properties, CLV math + null-handling, four use cases under
NSubstitute, EF round-trip including survives-event-deletion). All 379
tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-05-16 17:45:42 +03:00
parent 292223174c
commit 1ad896b07e
36 changed files with 3315 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -347,4 +347,67 @@
<data name="Insights.Action.Refresh"><value>Refresh</value></data>
<data name="Insights.Action.OpenAnomaly"><value>Open</value></data>
<data name="Insights.Bucket.NotApplicable"><value>—</value></data>
<data name="Nav.MyBets"><value>My bets</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Kicker"><value>Journal</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Title"><value>Your bets and CLV</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Lede"><value>Every wager you've recorded, graded against final results and scored against the closing line. Positive CLV is the leading indicator that says you're consistently beating the market.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.Roi"><value>ROI</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.Roi.Hint"><value>Net profit ÷ total staked.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.StrikeRate"><value>Strike rate</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.StrikeRate.Hint"><value>Wins ÷ (wins + losses).</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.AvgClv"><value>Avg CLV</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.AvgClv.Hint"><value>Mean closing-line implied-probability gain.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.NetProfit"><value>Net profit</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.NetProfit.Hint"><value>Returns minus stakes (resolved bets).</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.TotalBets"><value>Total bets</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.Pending"><value>Pending</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.Won"><value>Won</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.Lost"><value>Lost</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Stat.Void"><value>Void</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Section.Add"><value>Record a bet</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Section.List"><value>Bet journal</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Action.Refresh"><value>Refresh</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Action.Resolve"><value>Resolve pending</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Action.Submit"><value>Record bet</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Action.Delete"><value>Delete</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Action.Confirm"><value>Confirm</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Action.Cancel"><value>Cancel</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.EventId"><value>Event ID</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.EventId.Hint"><value>Numeric ID from the event detail URL.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Type"><value>Bet type</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Side"><value>Side</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Value"><value>Threshold</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Value.Hint"><value>Handicap or total line (e.g. -1.5, 2.5).</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Rate"><value>Taken rate</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Stake"><value>Stake</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Notes"><value>Notes</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Field.Notes.Placeholder"><value>Strategy tag, bookmaker, or anything you want to remember…</value></data>
<data name="Journal.BetType.Win"><value>Win</value></data>
<data name="Journal.BetType.Draw"><value>Draw</value></data>
<data name="Journal.BetType.WinFora"><value>Handicap</value></data>
<data name="Journal.BetType.Total"><value>Total</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Side.Side1"><value>Side 1</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Side.Side2"><value>Side 2</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Side.Draw"><value>Draw</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Side.Less"><value>Under</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Side.More"><value>Over</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Outcome.Pending"><value>Pending</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Outcome.Won"><value>Won</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Outcome.Lost"><value>Lost</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Outcome.Void"><value>Void</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.PlacedAt"><value>Placed</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Match"><value>Match</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Selection"><value>Selection</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Stake"><value>Stake</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Rate"><value>Rate</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Profit"><value>P&amp;L</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Clv"><value>CLV</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Column.Outcome"><value>Outcome</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Empty.None"><value>No bets recorded yet. Use the form above to log a wager — once the event finishes the journal will auto-grade it and compute closing-line value against the latest pre-match snapshot.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Empty.NotApplicable"><value>—</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Error.Generic"><value>Failed to save bet — check the event ID and try again.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Resolve.None"><value>No pending bets needed grading.</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Resolve.Done"><value>Graded {0} pending bet(s).</value></data>
<data name="Journal.Confirm.Delete"><value>Delete this bet permanently?</value></data>
</root>