fix(journal): stop bet edits silently un-settling graded bets

A stake/notes-only edit re-graded from Pending, which un-settled a won/lost
bet once its result row had been pruned by snapshot retention (the journal is
FK-free and outlives results). Now only re-grade when the selection or event
actually changed, or the bet is still Pending — mirroring RecordPlacedBet.

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/UpdatePlacedBetUseCase.cs

@@ -55,23 +55,33 @@ public sealed class UpdatePlacedBetUseCase
                 "The event must already be present in the scrape store.");
         }
 
-        // Preserve the original entry time; re-grade from Pending so a changed
+        // Only the selection or the event affects grading. When neither changed (e.g. a
-        // selection/event settles against the current result.
+        // stake/notes-only edit) keep the existing outcome — re-grading from Pending here
+        // would SILENTLY UN-SETTLE a won/lost bet whose result row has since been pruned by
+        // snapshot retention (the journal is FK-free and outlives result pruning). A
+        // still-Pending bet is always (re)graded, mirroring RecordPlacedBetUseCase.
+        var gradingInputChanged = !existing.EventId.Equals(eventId)
+                               || !existing.Selection.Equals(selection);
+        var regrade = gradingInputChanged || existing.Outcome == BetOutcome.Pending;
+
         var toPersist = new PlacedBet(
             Id: id,
             EventId: eventId,
             Selection: selection,
             Stake: stake,
             PlacedAt: existing.PlacedAt,
-            Outcome: BetOutcome.Pending,
+            Outcome: regrade ? BetOutcome.Pending : existing.Outcome,
             Notes: notes);
 
-        var result = await _results.GetAsync(eventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        if (regrade)
-        if (result is not null)
         {
-            var graded = Marathon.Domain.Betting.BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(toPersist.Selection, result);
+            var result = await _results.GetAsync(eventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
-            if (graded is not null)
+            if (result is not null)
-                toPersist = toPersist.WithOutcome(graded.Value);
+            {
+                var graded = Marathon.Domain.Betting.BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(toPersist.Selection, result);
+                if (graded is not null)
+                    toPersist = toPersist.WithOutcome(graded.Value);
+            }
         }
 
         await _bets.UpdateAsync(toPersist, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/UpdatePlacedBetUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -82,4 +82,40 @@ public sealed class UpdatePlacedBetUseCaseTests
             Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
         await _bets.Received(1).SaveChangesAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
     }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task NotesOnlyEdit_PreservesSettledOutcome_EvenWhenResultPruned()
+    {
+        var id = Guid.NewGuid();
+        var eid = new EventId("evt-1");
+        var sameSelection = Selection(side: Side.Side1, rate: 2.0m);
+        var settledWon = new PlacedBet(id, eid, sameSelection, 50m, PlacedAt, BetOutcome.Won, "old");
+        _bets.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(settledWon);
+        _events.GetAsync(eid, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(Ev(eid));
+        // Result row has been pruned by retention.
+        _results.GetAsync(eid, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns((EventResult?)null);
+
+        // Same selection/event — only the note changes.
+        var updated = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(id, eid, sameSelection, stake: 50m, notes: "new note");
+
+        updated.Outcome.Should().Be(BetOutcome.Won);  // NOT silently reset to Pending
+        updated.Notes.Should().Be("new note");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task ChangedSelection_WithNoResult_ResetsToPending()
+    {
+        var id = Guid.NewGuid();
+        var eid = new EventId("evt-1");
+        var settledWon = new PlacedBet(id, eid, Selection(side: Side.Side1, rate: 2.0m), 50m, PlacedAt, BetOutcome.Won, "old");
+        _bets.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(settledWon);
+        _events.GetAsync(eid, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(Ev(eid));
+        _results.GetAsync(eid, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns((EventResult?)null);
+
+        // Selection changed (Side1 → Side2) but no result to grade against → must be Pending,
+        // never the now-stale Won.
+        var updated = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(id, eid, Selection(side: Side.Side2, rate: 3.0m), stake: 50m, notes: "old");
+
+        updated.Outcome.Should().Be(BetOutcome.Pending);
+    }
 }