feat(phase-7-backend): implement anomaly detection — SuspensionFlip detector, use case, poller, and tests
- AnomalyDetector (pure domain): detects odds-flip pattern from live snapshot timelines using implied-probability vectors (p=1/rate, normalised), flip score = max(|p_post−p_pre|), gated by both threshold AND favourite-changed test - SuspensionInterval record: typed pair of (pre, post) OddsSnapshot bracketing a gap - AnomalyOptions POCO (Application layer): bound to Anomaly:* config section with four fields (SuspensionGapSeconds=60, OddsFlipThreshold=0.30, MinSnapshotCount=3, DetectionIntervalSeconds=60) - DetectAnomaliesUseCase: iterates all events, loads last-24h live snapshots, runs detector, persists new anomalies with 1-minute dedup window - AnomalyDetectionPoller: BackgroundService polling every DetectionIntervalSeconds, gated by WorkerOptions.AnomalyDetectionEnabled (default true) - DI wiring: DetectAnomaliesUseCase registered Scoped in ApplicationModule; AnomalyOptions bound + AnomalyDetectionPoller hosted in InfrastructureModule - WorkerOptions.AnomalyDetectionEnabled added; appsettings.json updated - 13 domain tests + 4 application tests; total 245/245 passing (no regression)
This commit is contained in:
@@ -101,6 +101,44 @@ with scraping research, no implementation.
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## Implementation Notes
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### Phase 7 Backend (Anomaly detection, 2026-05-05)
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- **`AnomalyDetector` is pure domain — no I/O, no DI.** Constructor takes three ints/decimals
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from `AnomalyOptions`; the caller (use case) materialises it per cycle.
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The UI evidence panel can reconstruct the same probabilities from `EvidenceJson` without
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needing to re-invoke the detector.
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- **Implied probability formula:** `p_i = 1 / rate_i`, then normalise so all `p_i` sum to 1
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(divorcé of the bookmaker's margin). This is the standard European odds conversion.
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- **Flip score** = `max(|p_post[i] − p_pre[i]|)` over Match-Win sides (p1, pDraw?, p2).
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Score is clamped to `[0, 1]` before constructing `Anomaly` (domain invariant enforces ≤1).
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- **Two-part gate** — an anomaly requires BOTH: (a) `flipScore ≥ OddsFlipThreshold` AND
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(b) `argmax(p_pre) != argmax(p_post)`. This prevents spurious detections when one side's
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probability shifts a lot but it was never the favourite.
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- **Tennis / 2-way markets** — `pDraw` is `null` when no `BetType.Draw` bet is present.
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The detector and `EvidenceJson` gracefully handle this (JSON field is omitted when null via
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`DefaultIgnoreCondition.WhenWritingNull`).
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- **`EvidenceJson` uses `System.Text.Json` with custom `JsonPropertyName` attributes** on
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sealed nested records (`EvidencePayload`, `SnapshotEvidence`). Source generation was not
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used at this scale — the payload is small and created infrequently.
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- **`DetectAnomaliesUseCase` loads all events + last-24-h live snapshots per cycle.**
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This is a deliberate simplification; a future optimisation is to track `last_run_at` per
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event. Documented as 🟡 in the handoff.
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- **Dedup strategy:** two anomalies are considered duplicates if they share `EventId`, `Kind`,
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and their `DetectedAt` values fall within a 1-minute window. This prevents the same
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suspension triggering re-insertion on consecutive detection cycles while the gap snapshot
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pair remains in the 24-hour window.
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- **`AnomalyOptions` placed in `Marathon.Application/Configuration/`** (not Infrastructure).
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The `AnomalyDetector` itself is in `Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/` but requires no
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options binding — it takes plain constructor parameters.
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- **`AnomalyDetectionPoller` reads `IOptionsMonitor<AnomalyOptions>` per cycle** so that
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hot-reload of `DetectionIntervalSeconds` takes effect without a restart. Same pattern as
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`LiveOddsPoller` reading `WorkerOptions`.
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- **`Workers:AnomalyDetectionEnabled`** added to `WorkerOptions` (default `true`) and
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`appsettings.json`. UI agent must add a Settings toggle for this flag.
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- **New test count: +17** (13 domain + 4 application). Total: 245/245 passing.
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- **Test note:** rates 1.5/2.5 produce a flip score of ~0.25 — BELOW the 0.30 threshold.
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Always use 1.3/4.0 (flip score ~0.51) or steeper to guarantee detection in tests.
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### Phase 6 (Event browsing UI, 2026-05-05)
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- **Plotly.Blazor pinned to 5.4.1.** v7.x exists but introduces breaking changes;
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@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ parameter configurable.
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| Phase 4: Application + Workers | backend | ✅ Done | ⚠️ Pass with notes (Sonnet) | ✅ Build OK + 202/202 tests | ✅ 2acbaa5 |
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| Phase 5: Host + Theme + i18n | frontend | ✅ Done | ⚠️ Pass with notes (Sonnet, combined batch) | ✅ Build OK + 11/11 UI tests | ✅ batch (e4d8476…686550d…+) |
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| Phase 6: Event browsing UI | frontend | ✅ Done | ⚠️ Pass with notes (Sonnet) | ✅ Build OK + 228/228 tests | ✅ 553db2b |
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| Phase 7: Anomaly detection | fullstack | ⬜ Not Started | ⬜ | ⏭️ Big Bang | ⬜ |
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| Phase 7: Anomaly detection | fullstack | 🔨 Backend done | ⬜ | ✅ Build OK + 245/245 tests | ⬜ |
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| Phase 8: Results loader | fullstack | ⬜ Not Started | ⬜ | ⏭️ Big Bang | ⬜ |
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| Phase 9: Packaging + polish | fullstack | ⬜ Not Started | ⬜ | ⬜ | ⬜ |
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@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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# Phase 7: Anomaly Detection (Suspension + Flip)
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**Status:** ⬜ Not Started
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**Status:** 🔨 Backend Done — Awaiting Frontend (Opus)
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**Parent plan:** [PLAN.md](./PLAN.md)
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**Domain:** fullstack
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**Implementer:** Sonnet (backend portion) + Opus (UI portion, with frontend-design)
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@@ -14,42 +14,63 @@ and surface them in a dedicated UI feed page so the user can act on them.
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## Tasks
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### Backend (Sonnet)
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### Backend (Sonnet) ✅ COMPLETE
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- [ ] Implement `Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetector.cs`:
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- [x] Implement `Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetector.cs`:
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- Pure domain logic — takes `IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot>` for an event, returns
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`IReadOnlyList<Anomaly>`
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- Detect suspension intervals: gaps between snapshots > `SuspensionGapSeconds`
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(configurable)
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- For each suspension, compute pre-suspension and post-suspension implied
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probability vectors `(p1, pDraw, p2)` from Win-1/Draw/Win-2 rates
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- Compute flip score: `max(|p_post[i] - p_pre[i]|)` across i ∈ {1, draw, 2}
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- If flip score ≥ `OddsFlipThreshold` AND the favorite changed (argmax differs),
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- Compute flip score: `max(|p_post[i] − p_pre[i]|)` across i ∈ {1, draw, 2}
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- If flip score ≥ `OddsFlipThreshold` AND the favourite changed (argmax differs),
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emit an `Anomaly(Kind=SuspensionFlip, Score, EvidenceJson)` where `EvidenceJson`
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contains the snapshots bracketing the suspension
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- [ ] Add `AnomalyOptions` POCO bound to `Anomaly:*`:
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- [x] Add `AnomalyOptions` POCO bound to `Anomaly:*` (in `Marathon.Application/Configuration/`):
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```csharp
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public sealed class AnomalyOptions {
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public int SuspensionGapSeconds { get; init; } = 60;
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public decimal OddsFlipThreshold { get; init; } = 0.30m;
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public int MinSnapshotCount { get; init; } = 3;
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public int DetectionIntervalSeconds { get; init; } = 60;
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}
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```
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- [ ] Implement `DetectAnomaliesUseCase` in `Marathon.Application/UseCases/`:
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- Iterate over events with new snapshots since last detection run
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- [x] Implement `DetectAnomaliesUseCase` in `Marathon.Application/UseCases/`:
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- Iterate over all events and load snapshots from last 24 h
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- Invoke `AnomalyDetector` per event
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- Persist new anomalies via `IAnomalyRepository`
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- [ ] Implement `AnomalyDetectionPoller : BackgroundService` in
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- Persist new anomalies via `IAnomalyRepository` with dedup logic
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- [x] Implement `AnomalyDetectionPoller : BackgroundService` in
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`Marathon.Infrastructure/Workers/`:
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- Runs every `Anomaly:DetectionIntervalSeconds` (default 60s)
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- Calls `DetectAnomaliesUseCase`
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- [ ] Backend tests in `Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/`:
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- Synthetic snapshot timeline with no flip → 0 anomalies
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- Snapshot timeline with suspension + small odds shift → 0 anomalies (below threshold)
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- Snapshot timeline with suspension + large flip (favorite ↔ underdog) → 1 anomaly
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- Score calculation matches expected value
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- Gated by `Workers:AnomalyDetectionEnabled` (default `true`)
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- [x] Add `WorkerOptions.AnomalyDetectionEnabled` (default `true`)
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- [x] Register `DetectAnomaliesUseCase` as Scoped in `ApplicationModule`
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- [x] Bind `AnomalyOptions` and register `AnomalyDetectionPoller` in `InfrastructureModule`
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- [x] Update `appsettings.json` — add `Workers:AnomalyDetectionEnabled: true`
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(all 4 `Anomaly:*` keys already existed from Phase 5)
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- [x] Backend tests in `Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetectorTests.cs` (10 tests):
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- Empty snapshot list → 0 anomalies ✓
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- Below `minSnapshotCount` → 0 anomalies ✓
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- Pre-match-only snapshots → 0 anomalies ✓
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- No suspension (regular intervals) → 0 anomalies ✓
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- Suspension but odds shift below threshold → 0 anomalies ✓
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- Suspension + favourite flip (2-way) → 1 anomaly ✓
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- Score calculation correct for known inputs ✓
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- Tennis (no draw) → 1 anomaly ✓
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- Multiple suspensions → multiple anomalies ✓
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- EvidenceJson contains pre/post probability vectors and rates ✓
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- Determinism: same input → same output ✓
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- 3-way market flip (draw becomes favourite) → 1 anomaly ✓
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- Mixed pre-match + live snapshots → only live analysed ✓
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- [x] Application tests in `Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/DetectAnomaliesUseCaseTests.cs` (4 tests):
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- Iterates events, calls detector, persists new anomalies ✓
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- Skips already-persisted anomalies (dedup logic) ✓
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- Tolerates per-event failures (one event throwing doesn't abort the cycle) ✓
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- Returns count of new anomalies ✓
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### Frontend (Opus + frontend-design)
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### Frontend (Opus + frontend-design) ⬜ NOT STARTED
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- [ ] Create `Marathon.UI/Pages/Anomalies/AnomalyFeed.razor`:
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- List of anomalies sorted by `DetectedAt` descending
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@@ -62,30 +83,49 @@ and surface them in a dedicated UI feed page so the user can act on them.
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information hierarchy.
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- [ ] Add navigation entry to `MainLayout` drawer with notification badge showing
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unread anomaly count.
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- [ ] Localize all strings in RU + EN.
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- [ ] Create `Marathon.UI/Services/IAnomalyBrowsingService.cs` + `AnomalyBrowsingService.cs`
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+ `AnomalyBrowsingState.cs` + `AnomalyViewModels.cs`
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- [ ] Append localization keys to `SharedResource.ru.resx` and `SharedResource.en.resx`
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- [ ] Add Settings UI binding for `AnomalyDetectionEnabled` worker flag (see handoff)
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- [ ] Frontend tests in `Marathon.UI.Tests/Pages/Anomalies/`:
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- bUnit: anomaly card renders evidence timeline
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- bUnit: filter narrows the list correctly
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## Files to Modify/Create
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- `src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetector.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/SuspensionInterval.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/DetectAnomaliesUseCase.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.Application/Configuration/AnomalyOptions.cs` (or in Infra)
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- `src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Workers/AnomalyDetectionPoller.cs`
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### Backend (done)
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- `src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetector.cs` ✅ created
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- `src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/SuspensionInterval.cs` ✅ created
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- `src/Marathon.Application/Configuration/AnomalyOptions.cs` ✅ created
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- `src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/DetectAnomaliesUseCase.cs` ✅ created
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- `src/Marathon.Application/ApplicationModule.cs` ✅ modified (added `DetectAnomaliesUseCase` registration)
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- `src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Workers/AnomalyDetectionPoller.cs` ✅ created
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- `src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Configuration/WorkerOptions.cs` ✅ modified (added `AnomalyDetectionEnabled`)
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- `src/Marathon.Infrastructure/InfrastructureModule.cs` ✅ modified (added `AnomalyOptions` binding + poller)
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- `src/Marathon.Hosts.WpfBlazor/appsettings.json` ✅ modified (added `Workers:AnomalyDetectionEnabled`)
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- `tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetectorTests.cs` ✅ created (13 tests)
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- `tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/DetectAnomaliesUseCaseTests.cs` ✅ created (4 tests)
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### Frontend (UI agent owns)
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Anomalies/AnomalyFeed.razor`
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Components/AnomalyCard.razor`
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- `tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetectorTests.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Services/IAnomalyBrowsingService.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyBrowsingService.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyBrowsingState.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyViewModels.cs`
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Resources/SharedResource.ru.resx` (append new keys)
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- `src/Marathon.UI/Resources/SharedResource.en.resx` (append new keys)
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- `src/Marathon.UI/MainLayout.razor` or `NavBody.razor` (anomaly nav entry)
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- `tests/Marathon.UI.Tests/Pages/Anomalies/**`
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## Acceptance Criteria
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- Compiles (Big Bang).
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- `AnomalyDetector` is a pure function — no I/O, no DI dependencies.
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- Configurable thresholds via `appsettings.json` (visible in Settings page).
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- UI clearly distinguishes high/medium/low severity anomalies.
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- Evidence timeline shows the actual snapshots that triggered the detection.
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- [x] Compiles (Big Bang).
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- [x] `AnomalyDetector` is a pure function — no I/O, no DI dependencies.
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- [x] Configurable thresholds via `appsettings.json`.
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- [ ] Visible in Settings page (UI agent must wire `AnomalyDetectionEnabled`).
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- [ ] UI clearly distinguishes high/medium/low severity anomalies.
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- [ ] Evidence timeline shows the actual snapshots that triggered the detection.
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## Notes
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@@ -96,12 +136,144 @@ and surface them in a dedicated UI feed page so the user can act on them.
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## Review Checklist
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- [ ] Detector is deterministic and pure
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- [ ] Score calculation correct (verify against hand-computed example)
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- [ ] No false positives on synthetic "normal" timelines
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- [x] Detector is deterministic and pure
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- [x] Score calculation correct (verified against hand-computed example in test comments)
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- [x] No false positives on synthetic "normal" timelines
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- [ ] UI evidence timeline matches stored `EvidenceJson`
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- [ ] All strings localized
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## Handoff to Next Phase
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<!-- Filled by Phase 7 implementer. -->
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### Handoff to Phase 7 Frontend (UI) Agent
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> **Read this section first.** The backend is fully implemented. You own all `Marathon.UI`
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> files listed above. Do NOT touch any backend files.
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---
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#### What the backend provides
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**`DetectAnomaliesUseCase.ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken)`**
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- Returns `Task<int>` (count of new anomalies persisted this cycle).
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- Called automatically by `AnomalyDetectionPoller` every 60 s (default).
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- You do NOT call this from the UI — it is worker-driven.
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- The UI only reads from `IAnomalyRepository`.
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**`AnomalyDetector` — detection formula (for rendering evidence)**
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- Implied probability: `p_i = (1 / rate_i)` for each win side.
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- Normalisation: divide each `p_i` by the sum of all raw `p_i` values → they sum to 1.
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- Flip score: `max(|p_post[i] − p_pre[i]|)` over i ∈ {p1, pDraw?, p2}.
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- Favourite-changed test: `argmax(p_pre) != argmax(p_post)`.
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- An anomaly is emitted only if BOTH conditions hold: score ≥ threshold AND favourite changed.
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**`IAnomalyRepository`** — the UI service should call:
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- `ListAsync(CancellationToken)` — all anomalies for the feed page (paginate client-side).
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- `GetAsync(Guid id, CancellationToken)` — single anomaly for a detail view.
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- There is no `ListByEventAsync` on `IAnomalyRepository` (only on `ISnapshotRepository`).
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If you need anomalies for a specific event, filter the full list by `EventId`.
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**`Anomaly` entity** — fields available to the UI:
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```csharp
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Guid Id // GUID primary key
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EventId EventId // bookmaker event code (e.g. "26456117")
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DateTimeOffset DetectedAt // Moscow TZ (UTC+3)
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AnomalyKind Kind // currently always SuspensionFlip
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decimal Score // normalised [0, 1] — the largest implied-prob delta
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string EvidenceJson // see shape below
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```
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**`Anomaly.EvidenceJson` shape:**
|
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```json
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{
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"suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
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"preSuspension": {
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"capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
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"p1": 0.755,
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"pDraw": null,
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"p2": 0.245,
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"rate1": 1.3,
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"rateDraw": null,
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"rate2": 4.0
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},
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"postSuspension": {
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"capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:30+03:00",
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"p1": 0.245,
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"pDraw": null,
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"p2": 0.755,
|
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"rate1": 4.0,
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"rateDraw": null,
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"rate2": 1.3
|
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}
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}
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```
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- `pDraw` / `rateDraw` are `null` for 2-way markets (tennis, etc.).
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- Use `System.Text.Json.JsonDocument.Parse(anomaly.EvidenceJson)` to deserialise in the UI.
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Or define a `EvidenceDto` record in `AnomalyViewModels.cs` and use `JsonSerializer.Deserialize<EvidenceDto>`.
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|
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**Recommended severity buckets** (for color-coding):
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| Severity | Score range | MudBlazor color suggestion |
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|----------|-------------|---------------------------|
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| Low | 0.30–0.45 | `Color.Warning` |
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| Medium | 0.45–0.60 | `Color.Error` |
|
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| High | 0.60+ | deep red / `Color.Error` + pulsing badge |
|
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|
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---
|
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|
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#### Settings page addition (UI agent must wire)
|
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|
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`Workers:AnomalyDetectionEnabled` (`bool`, default `true`) was added to `WorkerOptions`
|
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and `appsettings.json`. The Phase 5 Settings page needs a toggle for it.
|
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The existing pattern is the same as `LivePollerEnabled` and `UpcomingPollerEnabled`.
|
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|
||||
---
|
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|
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#### Localization keys to add
|
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|
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Append these to both `SharedResource.ru.resx` and `SharedResource.en.resx`:
|
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|
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| Key | EN value | RU value |
|
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|------------------------------|------------------------------|------------------------------------|
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| `Anomaly.Title` | Anomaly Feed | Лента аномалий |
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| `Anomaly.Severity.Low` | Low | Низкая |
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| `Anomaly.Severity.Medium` | Medium | Средняя |
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| `Anomaly.Severity.High` | High | Высокая |
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| `Anomaly.Card.DetectedAt` | Detected at | Обнаружено |
|
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| `Anomaly.Card.Score` | Score | Оценка |
|
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| `Anomaly.Card.Kind.SuspensionFlip` | Suspension Flip | Переворот после паузы |
|
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| `Anomaly.Card.GapSeconds` | Suspension gap | Длительность паузы |
|
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| `Anomaly.Evidence.PreSuspension` | Before suspension | До паузы |
|
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| `Anomaly.Evidence.PostSuspension` | After suspension | После паузы |
|
||||
| `Anomaly.Evidence.Probability` | Implied prob. | Вероятность |
|
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| `Anomaly.Evidence.Rate` | Rate | Коэффициент |
|
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| `Anomaly.Filter.Severity` | Min severity | Минимальная важность |
|
||||
| `Anomaly.Filter.Sport` | Sport | Вид спорта |
|
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| `Anomaly.Filter.DateRange` | Date range | Диапазон дат |
|
||||
| `Anomaly.Empty` | No anomalies detected yet. | Аномалии пока не обнаружены. |
|
||||
| `Settings.AnomalyDetection` | Anomaly detection | Обнаружение аномалий |
|
||||
| `Settings.AnomalyDetectionEnabled` | Enable anomaly detection | Включить обнаружение аномалий |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
#### Integration pattern for the UI service
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the same split as `EventBrowsingService` (Scoped) + `EventBrowsingState` (Singleton)
|
||||
documented in CONTEXT.md Phase 6 notes. Specifically:
|
||||
- `AnomalyBrowsingState` (Singleton): holds current filter settings + fires `OnChange`.
|
||||
- `AnomalyBrowsingService` (Scoped): resolves `IAnomalyRepository` from the DI scope,
|
||||
loads anomalies, and maps to view-models (`AnomalyListItem`, `AnomalyDetail`).
|
||||
- `AnomalyListItem` view-model should include `Severity` (computed from `Score`),
|
||||
pre-rendered display strings, and the parsed `EvidenceDto`.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
#### 🟡 Known gaps / deferred items
|
||||
|
||||
- **No "last detection run" tracking.** The use case currently loads the last 24 h of
|
||||
snapshots for ALL events on every cycle. A Phase 8/9 optimisation: track last-run
|
||||
timestamp per event to limit the snapshot window. Flag this in the UI as "best-effort
|
||||
coverage window: last 24 h".
|
||||
- **`Settings.razor` AnomalyDetectionEnabled toggle** — backend option exists, UI wiring
|
||||
is the UI agent's responsibility.
|
||||
- **No read API for "unread anomaly count"** — the nav badge will need to read from
|
||||
the full list and maintain a "last seen" timestamp in `AnomalyBrowsingState`.
|
||||
Consider using `LocalStorage` via Blazor interop (same as any SPA pattern).
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user