Commit Graph

2 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
alexei.dolgolyov 115872aad0 feat(anomaly): overround-compression detector
Adds the 4th IAnomalyDetector: flags a sharp drop in the bookmaker's
overround (raw implied-probability sum / margin) over a continuous live
window. Informational/non-directional — excluded from outcome grading
and backtest staking via AnomalyKind.IsDirectional().

- OverroundCompressionDetector: sliding-window scan mirroring SteamMove,
  score = min(1, compression / 0.10 reference), suspension-gap aware.
- MatchWinEvidence.Probabilities gains Overround (pre-normalisation
  margin); evidence JSON shape unchanged.
- Wired into DetectAnomaliesUseCase fan-out; AnomalyOptions + appsettings
  (window 120s, threshold 0.02); en/ru resx + KindLabel arms.
- 11 detector tests incl. score saturation/scaling, inclusive threshold
  boundary, and a three-way (draw-leg) overround case.
2026-05-29 01:46:56 +03:00
alexei.dolgolyov 2b1025cae3 feat(anomaly): IAnomalyDetector seam + steam-move detector
- Introduce IAnomalyDetector; the existing flip detector implements it.
- Extract MatchWinEvidence so every detector writes the identical pre/post
  evidence shape — the UI parser and outcome evaluator handle new kinds with no
  branching (steam moves get hit-rate calibrated for free).
- Add SteamMoveDetector: flags a rapid one-directional implied-probability rise
  over a short CONTINUOUS window (no suspension gap inside it), so it never
  double-flags the same interval as the suspension-flip detector.
- DetectAnomaliesUseCase fans out over both detectors; dedup keys on EventId+Kind
  so flip and steam signals persist independently. Add AnomalyKind.SteamMove +
  SteamMove window/threshold options. 8 detector tests.
2026-05-28 22:59:12 +03:00