Adds a background forward-test engine that records flat-stake "paper" bets
for directional anomalies as they fire and settles them when results arrive,
measuring the detector's live, out-of-sample edge — the antidote to backtest
overfitting. The results UI is a follow-up.
- Domain: PaperBet entity (Rate>1 / Stake>0 invariants, Open factory,
SettleAgainst — Won pays stake x rate, else Lost) + AnomalyEvidenceSide.RateFor.
- Application: OpenPaperBetsUseCase (directional + score gate, dedups by
AnomalyId, picks the post-flip favourite and its locked-in rate) and
SettlePaperBetsUseCase (Won when pick == winner else Lost; ungraded events
stay open; batched result lookup).
- Infrastructure: PaperBetEntity + config (TEXT decimals, unique AnomalyId index,
Outcome index), repository, mapping, additive AddPaperBets migration, and
PaperTradingWorker (config-gated, baseline since-marker, open+settle per cycle).
- Config: PaperTradingOptions / appsettings PaperTrading (Enabled:false default).
- 25 tests: domain settlement, both use cases, and a real-SQLite round-trip
incl. the unique-AnomalyId double-open backstop.
Persist named backtest-strategy presets so a staking config (bankroll,
min-score, stake rule, flat/percent/Kelly params) can be saved, listed,
loaded back into the form, and deleted. The per-run date range is not
part of a preset.
- Domain: SavedStrategy record (name trimmed + bounded to 80 chars,
Create() factory) wrapping the pure BacktestStrategy.
- Persistence: SavedStrategyEntity + config (TEXT decimals, unique
case-insensitive NOCASE index on Name), repository, mapping, and a
hand-trimmed AddSavedStrategies migration (additive — only the new
table). Case-insensitive names mean save-by-name overwrites instead of
creating near-duplicates.
- Application: SaveStrategyUseCase (upsert by name, keeps Id+CreatedAt) +
DeleteStrategyUseCase.
- UI: presets panel on the Backtest page (load/save/delete) + service
methods; fraction<->percent round-trip; en/ru resx.
- Fix: pin Sports.Code as ValueGeneratedNever — it is the bookmaker's
natural sport id, not an autoincrement surrogate. Corrects long-standing
model-snapshot drift; the snapshot is regenerated to match the DB.
- 25 tests across all four layers: domain validation, real-SQLite
round-trip incl. case-insensitive lookup/uniqueness, the upsert use
case, and the service percent mapping.
Adds a manual bet-tracking journal that turns the analyzer into an actual
bet tracker. Users record wagers; the journal auto-grades them when event
results land and computes per-bet Closing-Line-Value against the latest
pre-match snapshot — the strongest long-run indicator of betting skill.
Domain:
- PlacedBet entity (reuses Bet vocabulary for Scope/Type/Side/Value/Rate)
with stake, placed-at, outcome, and notes. Derived GrossReturn / NetProfit.
- BetOutcome enum (Pending / Won / Lost / Void).
- BetOutcomeResolver: pure function grading any Match-scope bet against an
EventResult. Handles 1X2, draws, handicap (incl. push), and totals.
Period-scope bets stay manual since EventResult only carries full-time.
Application:
- IPlacedBetRepository abstraction.
- ClosingLineValueCalculator: pure CLV math (implied-probability delta) +
snapshot-matching predicate by Scope/Type/Side/Value.
- BetJournalReport + BetJournalStats records.
- Four use cases: Record / ResolvePending / BuildReport / Delete.
- New ISnapshotRepository.GetLatestPreMatchAsync pushes the closing-line
pick into a single SQLite query rather than materialising the 30-day
window in memory per event.
- ROI turnover excludes Void stakes — pushes are not real turnover and
including them would dilute the user's edge.
Infrastructure:
- PlacedBetEntity / Configuration / Repository / Mapping helpers.
- 20260516 migration adding the PlacedBets table with EventCode and
Outcome indices. Intentionally NO foreign key to Events — the journal
is user data and must survive snapshot-retention pruning. Covered by an
explicit round-trip test.
UI:
- Pages/MyBets/Journal.razor: hero header, 4-card KPI strip (ROI / strike
rate / avg CLV / net profit, tinted by tone), inline add-bet form with
the same invariants as the Bet record, drill-down table with per-row
outcome pills, CLV percentage-points column, P&L, notes underline, and
inline-confirm delete. RU + EN i18n.
- Nav entry under Analysis.
Tests: +55 across Domain / Application / Infrastructure (resolver math
including handicap push and total push boundaries, PlacedBet invariants
and derived properties, CLV math + null-handling, four use cases under
NSubstitute, EF round-trip including survives-event-deletion). All 379
tests pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
alexei.dolgolyov