maraphon-app/tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyOutcomeEvaluatorTests.cs

using FluentAssertions;
using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;

namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.AnomalyDetection;

/// <summary>
/// Unit tests for <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator"/> covering the join with
/// <see cref="EventResult"/> for hit / miss / unresolved verdicts.
/// </summary>
public sealed class AnomalyOutcomeEvaluatorTests
{
    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
    private static readonly EventId DefaultEventId = new("12345678");

    private const string ThreeWayFlipJson = """
        {
          "suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
          "preSuspension": {
            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
            "p1": 0.55, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.25,
            "rate1": 1.8, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 4.0
          },
          "postSuspension": {
            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:02:30+03:00",
            "p1": 0.25, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.55,
            "rate1": 4.0, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 1.8
          }
        }
        """;

    private static Anomaly MakeAnomaly(string evidenceJson, decimal score = 0.5m) =>
        new(
            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
            EventId: DefaultEventId,
            DetectedAt: new DateTimeOffset(2026, 5, 10, 18, 5, 0, MoscowOffset),
            Kind: AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip,
            Score: score,
            EvidenceJson: evidenceJson);

    private static EventResult MakeResult(Side winner, int s1 = 1, int s2 = 1) =>
        new(DefaultEventId, s1, s2, winner, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportHit_When_PostFlipFavourite_Wins()
    {
        // Post-flip favourite = Side2; result = Side2 wins → Hit.
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson, score: 0.65m);
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side2, s1: 0, s2: 2);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(6), result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit);
        verdict.PreFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
        verdict.Sport!.Value.Should().Be(6);
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportMiss_When_PostFlipFavourite_Loses()
    {
        // Post-flip favourite = Side2; result = Side1 wins → Miss (detector wrong).
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson);
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side1, s1: 2, s2: 0);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(11), result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss);
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_KindIsNonDirectional()
    {
        // SuspensionFreeze is informational (the favourite did not change) — it must NOT be
        // graded hit/miss even when a result exists, or its base favourite-win rate would
        // pollute the calibration. Favourites are still surfaced for display.
        var anomaly = new Anomaly(
            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
            EventId: DefaultEventId,
            DetectedAt: new DateTimeOffset(2026, 5, 10, 18, 5, 0, MoscowOffset),
            Kind: AnomalyKind.SuspensionFreeze,
            Score: 0.9m,
            EvidenceJson: ThreeWayFlipJson);
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side2, s1: 0, s2: 2);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(6), result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportMiss_When_DrawOccurred_AndPostFlipFavouriteIsNotDraw()
    {
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson);
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Draw, s1: 1, s2: 1);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, null, result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss);
        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Draw);
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_ResultIsNull()
    {
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(22723), result: null);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().BeNull();
        // Pre/post favourites still computed for display.
        verdict.PreFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_EvidenceJsonIsMalformed()
    {
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly("{malformed");
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side1);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, null, result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved,
            "evidence cannot be parsed so we cannot judge the prediction");
        verdict.PreFlipFavourite.Should().BeNull(
            "fabricated favourites would mislead any consumer that reads the unresolved branch");
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().BeNull();
        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Side1, "the result side is still known and surfaced");
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportHit_For_TwoWayTennis_When_PostFlipFavouriteWins()
    {
        const string twoWayJson = """
            {
              "suspensionGapSeconds": 75,
              "preSuspension": {
                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
                "p1": 0.70, "p2": 0.30, "rate1": 1.4, "rate2": 3.3
              },
              "postSuspension": {
                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:30+03:00",
                "p1": 0.30, "p2": 0.70, "rate1": 3.3, "rate2": 1.4
              }
            }
            """;
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(twoWayJson, score: 0.55m);
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side2, s1: 0, s2: 2);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(22723), result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit);
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_TwoWayMarket_Has_DrawWinner()
    {
        // Tennis cannot draw — if the result is Draw the data is inconsistent
        // with the evidence and we refuse to grade rather than silently miss-classify.
        const string twoWayJson = """
            {
              "suspensionGapSeconds": 75,
              "preSuspension": {
                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
                "p1": 0.70, "p2": 0.30, "rate1": 1.4, "rate2": 3.3
              },
              "postSuspension": {
                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:30+03:00",
                "p1": 0.30, "p2": 0.70, "rate1": 3.3, "rate2": 1.4
              }
            }
            """;
        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(twoWayJson, score: 0.55m);
        var result = MakeResult(Side.Draw);

        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(22723), result);

        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Draw);
        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2,
            "favourite is still computed for display, just not graded");
    }

    [Fact]
    public void Should_Throw_When_AnomalyIsNull()
    {
        var act = () => AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(null!, null, null);
        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentNullException>();
    }
}