feat(settings): validate BaseUrl + cron on save, add BaseUrl hint

- Reject a non-absolute / non-http(s) BaseUrl and an implausible (not 5- or
  6-field) cron expression before the section is written to disk, mirroring the
  existing storage-path validation (snackbar + early return).
- Add a hint to the BaseUrl field. Cron check is a lightweight UI guard; the
  worker still does the authoritative Cronos parse at startup.

src/Marathon.Application/Abstractions/IAnomalyRepository.cs

@@ -5,4 +5,22 @@ namespace Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
 /// <summary>
 /// Repository for <see cref="Anomaly"/> domain entities.
 /// </summary>
-public interface IAnomalyRepository : IRepository<Guid, Anomaly>;
+public interface IAnomalyRepository : IRepository<Guid, Anomaly>
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Server-side count of anomalies detected strictly after <paramref name="since"/>.
+    /// Backs the unread badge without materialising the table.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<int> CountSinceAsync(DateTimeOffset since, CancellationToken ct = default);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Anomalies whose <see cref="Anomaly.DetectedAt"/> falls in the inclusive
+    /// [<paramref name="from"/>..<paramref name="to"/>] window (either bound may be
+    /// null for open-ended), ordered newest-first. Pushes the temporal filter to SQL;
+    /// severity / sport filtering remains a service concern (needs the event join).
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyList<Anomaly>> ListByDateRangeAsync(
+        DateTimeOffset? from,
+        DateTimeOffset? to,
+        CancellationToken ct = default);
+}

src/Marathon.Application/Abstractions/IEventRepository.cs

@@ -11,8 +11,27 @@ public interface IEventRepository : IRepository<EventId, Event>
 {
     Task<IReadOnlyList<Event>> ListByDateRangeAsync(DateRange range, CancellationToken ct = default);
 
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Date-range + sport-filtered query pushed to the database. Replaces the
+    /// "load the whole date range then filter sports in memory" path on the list
+    /// pages. Locale-sensitive search and sort remain a service-layer concern.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyList<Event>> QueryAsync(EventQuery query, CancellationToken ct = default);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Batched point-lookup: loads many events in a single query, keyed by
+    /// <see cref="EventId"/>. Missing ids are simply absent from the dictionary.
+    /// Replaces per-id <see cref="IRepository{TKey,TEntity}.GetAsync"/> loops (N+1).
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyDictionary<EventId, Event>> GetManyAsync(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<EventId> ids,
+        CancellationToken ct = default);
+
     Task<IReadOnlyList<Event>> ListBySportAsync(SportCode sport, CancellationToken ct = default);
 
+    /// <summary>Server-side total event count (dashboard summary).</summary>
+    Task<int> CountAsync(CancellationToken ct = default);
+
     /// <summary>
     /// Distinct sport codes across the events table. Projects in the database
     /// rather than materialising every <see cref="Event"/> on the client.

src/Marathon.Application/Abstractions/IPlacedBetRepository.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Storage;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Repository for <see cref="PlacedBet"/> domain entities — the user-tracked
+/// betting journal.
+/// </summary>
+public interface IPlacedBetRepository : IRepository<Guid, PlacedBet>
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Bets matching <paramref name="outcome"/>. Used by the resolver use case
+    /// to scan only <see cref="BetOutcome.Pending"/> rows on each pass.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome outcome, CancellationToken ct = default);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Bets whose <see cref="PlacedBet.PlacedAt"/> falls within
+    /// <paramref name="range"/>. Used by the journal page when the user filters
+    /// by date.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListByDateRangeAsync(DateRange range, CancellationToken ct = default);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Every bet recorded against <paramref name="eventId"/>. Used by the event
+    /// detail page to show "you have N bets on this match".
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListByEventAsync(EventId eventId, CancellationToken ct = default);
+}

src/Marathon.Application/Abstractions/IResultRepository.cs

@@ -6,4 +6,14 @@ namespace Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
 /// <summary>
 /// Repository for <see cref="EventResult"/> domain entities.
 /// </summary>
-public interface IResultRepository : IRepository<EventId, EventResult>;
+public interface IResultRepository : IRepository<EventId, EventResult>
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Batched point-lookup: loads many results in a single query, keyed by
+    /// <see cref="EventId"/>. Missing ids are simply absent from the dictionary.
+    /// Replaces per-id <see cref="IRepository{TKey,TEntity}.GetAsync"/> loops (N+1).
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyDictionary<EventId, EventResult>> GetManyAsync(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<EventId> ids,
+        CancellationToken ct = default);
+}

src/Marathon.Application/Abstractions/ISnapshotRepository.cs

@@ -16,6 +16,12 @@ public interface ISnapshotRepository
 {
     Task<IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot>> ListAsync(CancellationToken ct = default);
 
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Server-side count of snapshots captured at or after <paramref name="since"/>.
+    /// Backs the dashboard "snapshots today" stat without materialising rows.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<int> CountSinceAsync(DateTimeOffset since, CancellationToken ct = default);
+
     Task<IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot>> ListByEventAsync(
         EventId eventId,
         DateTimeOffset from,
@@ -36,4 +42,19 @@ public interface ISnapshotRepository
     Task AddAsync(OddsSnapshot entity, CancellationToken ct = default);
 
     Task SaveChangesAsync(CancellationToken ct = default);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Returns the latest pre-match snapshot for <paramref name="eventId"/> whose
+    /// <see cref="OddsSnapshot.CapturedAt"/> is at or before
+    /// <paramref name="atOrBefore"/>, or <c>null</c> if none exists. Used by the
+    /// bet-journal use case as the "closing line" reference for CLV.
+    /// </summary>
+    /// <remarks>
+    /// Pushes the ORDER BY + LIMIT 1 down to SQLite so we do not materialise
+    /// every snapshot in the 30-day pre-match window just to pick one.
+    /// </remarks>
+    Task<OddsSnapshot?> GetLatestPreMatchAsync(
+        EventId eventId,
+        DateTimeOffset atOrBefore,
+        CancellationToken ct = default);
 }

src/Marathon.Application/ApplicationModule.cs

@@ -30,6 +30,14 @@ public static class ApplicationModule
         services.AddScoped<PullResultsUseCase>();
         services.AddScoped<ExportToExcelUseCase>();
         services.AddScoped<DetectAnomaliesUseCase>();
+        services.AddScoped<EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase>();
+
+        services.AddScoped<RecordPlacedBetUseCase>();
+        services.AddScoped<ResolvePendingBetsUseCase>();
+        services.AddScoped<BuildBetJournalReportUseCase>();
+        services.AddScoped<DeletePlacedBetUseCase>();
+
+        services.AddScoped<RunBacktestUseCase>();
 
         return services;
     }

src/Marathon.Application/Betting/BetJournalReport.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Betting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Aggregate report on the user's bet-tracking journal — totals, P&amp;L, and
+/// per-bet CLV. Consumed by the Journal page; built by
+/// <see cref="UseCases.BuildBetJournalReportUseCase"/>.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="Stats">Roll-up of stake / profit / hit rate / CLV across all bets in scope.</param>
+/// <param name="Bets">
+/// Every bet paired with its computed CLV (null when no closing snapshot was
+/// available). Ordered most-recent <see cref="PlacedBet.PlacedAt"/> first.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record BetJournalReport(
+    BetJournalStats Stats,
+    IReadOnlyList<BetJournalRow> Bets);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// One row in the journal — a domain <see cref="PlacedBet"/> plus the CLV
+/// computed against the closing pre-match snapshot.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="Bet">The domain bet exactly as persisted.</param>
+/// <param name="ClvProbabilityDelta">
+/// Closing-line value as an implied-probability delta in roughly [-1, 1].
+/// Positive means the user took a better price than the closing line; null
+/// when no matching bet existed in the closing snapshot.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record BetJournalRow(
+    PlacedBet Bet,
+    decimal? ClvProbabilityDelta);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Aggregate statistics across a set of <see cref="PlacedBet"/>.
+/// All money values share the user's currency — the domain does not encode one.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="TotalBets">Every bet in scope, regardless of outcome.</param>
+/// <param name="PendingCount">Bets still awaiting settlement.</param>
+/// <param name="WonCount">Settled wins.</param>
+/// <param name="LostCount">Settled losses.</param>
+/// <param name="VoidCount">Settled pushes / void grades.</param>
+/// <param name="TotalStaked">
+/// Turnover that contributes to ROI: sum of <see cref="PlacedBet.Stake"/> across
+/// <b>Won and Lost</b> bets only. Void (push) and Pending bets are excluded — a
+/// returned stake is not real turnover and counting it would dilute ROI.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="TotalReturned">
+/// Sum of <see cref="PlacedBet.GrossReturn"/> across the same Won + Lost subset
+/// that feeds <see cref="TotalStaked"/>.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="NetProfit"><c>TotalReturned − TotalStaked</c>.</param>
+/// <param name="RoiPercent">
+/// <c>NetProfit / TotalStaked × 100</c>. Null when no bets have resolved yet.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="StrikeRatePercent">
+/// <c>WonCount / (WonCount + LostCount) × 100</c> — excludes voids and pendings.
+/// Null when no settled win/loss exists yet.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="AverageClvProbabilityDelta">
+/// Mean CLV across bets where CLV was computable. Null when no comparable
+/// closing snapshot was available for any bet.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record BetJournalStats(
+    int TotalBets,
+    int PendingCount,
+    int WonCount,
+    int LostCount,
+    int VoidCount,
+    decimal TotalStaked,
+    decimal TotalReturned,
+    decimal NetProfit,
+    decimal? RoiPercent,
+    decimal? StrikeRatePercent,
+    decimal? AverageClvProbabilityDelta)
+{
+    /// <summary>Convenience: WonCount + LostCount + VoidCount.</summary>
+    public int ResolvedCount => WonCount + LostCount + VoidCount;
+
+    public static BetJournalStats Empty { get; } = new(
+        TotalBets: 0,
+        PendingCount: 0,
+        WonCount: 0,
+        LostCount: 0,
+        VoidCount: 0,
+        TotalStaked: 0m,
+        TotalReturned: 0m,
+        NetProfit: 0m,
+        RoiPercent: null,
+        StrikeRatePercent: null,
+        AverageClvProbabilityDelta: null);
+}

src/Marathon.Application/Betting/ClosingLineValueCalculator.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Betting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Pure helper that computes Closing Line Value (CLV) for a placed bet.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// CLV measures how much better (or worse) the rate the user took was compared
+/// with the bookmaker's last pre-match price on the same selection. It is the
+/// single best long-run indicator of betting skill — positive CLV correlates
+/// with positive expected value regardless of any individual bet's outcome.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Formula (implied-probability delta):
+/// <list type="bullet">
+///   <item>Taken implied probability:   <c>p_t = 1 / takenRate</c></item>
+///   <item>Closing implied probability: <c>p_c = 1 / closeRate</c></item>
+///   <item><c>CLV  =  p_c − p_t</c></item>
+/// </list>
+/// Positive CLV means the closing price implied higher probability for the
+/// selection than the price the user took — i.e. the line moved in the user's
+/// favour after they placed the bet.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Returns <c>null</c> when no matching bet (same Scope / Type / Side / Value)
+/// can be found in the closing snapshot — typically because the market closed
+/// before the bookmaker exposed a comparable line, or the snapshot store has
+/// gaps. UI consumers must distinguish "no data" from "0% CLV".
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public static class ClosingLineValueCalculator
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Computes CLV (implied-probability delta) given the rate the user took
+    /// and the rate present in the closing pre-match snapshot for the same
+    /// selection. Both must be positive — invariants on <see cref="OddsRate"/>
+    /// already guarantee this for inputs sourced from the domain.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static decimal Compute(decimal takenRate, decimal closingRate)
+    {
+        if (takenRate <= 0m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(takenRate), takenRate, "Must be positive.");
+        if (closingRate <= 0m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(closingRate), closingRate, "Must be positive.");
+
+        var takenProb = 1m / takenRate;
+        var closingProb = 1m / closingRate;
+
+        // Round to 6 decimals — beyond that is noise from the round-trip.
+        return Math.Round(closingProb - takenProb, 6);
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Convenience overload: finds the matching <see cref="Bet"/> in
+    /// <paramref name="closingSnapshot"/> by Scope / Type / Side / Value, then
+    /// computes CLV against <paramref name="takenRate"/>. Returns <c>null</c>
+    /// when no comparable bet is present.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static decimal? TryCompute(
+        decimal takenRate,
+        Bet placedSelection,
+        OddsSnapshot? closingSnapshot)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(placedSelection);
+        if (closingSnapshot is null) return null;
+
+        var match = closingSnapshot.Bets.FirstOrDefault(b =>
+            b.Scope.Equals(placedSelection.Scope) &&
+            b.Type == placedSelection.Type &&
+            b.Side == placedSelection.Side &&
+            NullableValuesEqual(b.Value, placedSelection.Value));
+
+        return match is null ? null : Compute(takenRate, match.Rate.Value);
+    }
+
+    private static bool NullableValuesEqual(OddsValue? a, OddsValue? b)
+    {
+        if (a is null && b is null) return true;
+        if (a is null || b is null) return false;
+        return a.Value == b.Value;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Application/Configuration/AnomalyOptions.cs

@@ -32,4 +32,16 @@ public sealed class AnomalyOptions
     /// in seconds. Default: 60 s.
     /// </summary>
     public int DetectionIntervalSeconds { get; init; } = 60;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Trailing window, in seconds, over which the steam-move detector measures a
+    /// continuous one-directional probability drift. Default: 120 s.
+    /// </summary>
+    public int SteamMoveWindowSeconds { get; init; } = 120;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Minimum one-directional normalised implied-probability rise within the window
+    /// to flag a steam move. Must be in (0, 1). Default: 0.20 (20 percentage points).
+    /// </summary>
+    public decimal SteamMoveDriftThreshold { get; init; } = 0.20m;
 }

src/Marathon.Application/Reporting/AnomalyOutcomeReport.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Reporting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Aggregate report answering the question "is the SuspensionFlip detector right?".
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="TotalAnomalies">Every persisted anomaly considered by this report.</param>
+/// <param name="ResolvedCount">Anomalies whose source events now have a final result.</param>
+/// <param name="UnresolvedCount">Anomalies still waiting for an event result.</param>
+/// <param name="HitCount">Resolved anomalies where the post-flip favourite won.</param>
+/// <param name="MissCount">Resolved anomalies where the post-flip favourite lost.</param>
+/// <param name="HitRate">
+/// <see cref="HitCount"/> ÷ <see cref="ResolvedCount"/> in [0, 1]. Null when no anomalies
+/// have been resolved yet — the UI must distinguish "0% hit rate" from "no data".
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="BySeverity">Breakdown by Low / Medium / High severity buckets.</param>
+/// <param name="BySport">Breakdown by sport code.</param>
+/// <param name="ByScoreBin">Breakdown across [0.30, 0.40), [0.40, 0.50), …, [0.90, 1.00].</param>
+/// <param name="Resolved">All resolved anomalies, newest first. Drives the drill-down table.</param>
+/// <param name="Unresolved">All unresolved anomalies, newest first.</param>
+/// <param name="EventTitles">
+/// Pre-shaped <c>"Side1Name vs Side2Name"</c> strings keyed by event id. Carried
+/// alongside the report so UI projections do not need a second pass over
+/// <c>IEventRepository</c> — every event in <see cref="Resolved"/> /
+/// <see cref="Unresolved"/> appears as a key. Missing events (e.g. pruned) are
+/// absent; consumers fall back to <c>EventId.Value</c>.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record AnomalyOutcomeReport(
+    int TotalAnomalies,
+    int ResolvedCount,
+    int UnresolvedCount,
+    int HitCount,
+    int MissCount,
+    decimal? HitRate,
+    IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BySeverity,
+    IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BySport,
+    IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> ByScoreBin,
+    IReadOnlyList<ResolvedAnomaly> Resolved,
+    IReadOnlyList<ResolvedAnomaly> Unresolved,
+    IReadOnlyDictionary<DomainEventId, string> EventTitles);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// One row in a breakdown table — e.g. "High severity", "Tennis", "[0.60, 0.70)".
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="Key">
+/// Stable, culture-invariant identifier used by the UI to localise the label
+/// (e.g. <c>"Severity.High"</c>, <c>"Sport.22723"</c>, <c>"Bin.0.60-0.70"</c>).
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="Total">Resolved anomalies in this bucket.</param>
+/// <param name="Hits">Subset of <see cref="Total"/> where post-flip favourite won.</param>
+/// <param name="HitRate">
+/// <see cref="Hits"/> ÷ <see cref="Total"/>, or null when <see cref="Total"/> is 0.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record OutcomeBucket(
+    string Key,
+    int Total,
+    int Hits,
+    decimal? HitRate);

src/Marathon.Application/Reporting/OutcomeBucketKeys.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+namespace Marathon.Application.Reporting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Canonical, culture-invariant <see cref="OutcomeBucket.Key"/> prefixes and
+/// literals. Used by the use case to emit keys and by the UI to localise them
+/// — both sides reference these constants so a rename can never produce silent
+/// "key not found" rendering on the page.
+/// </summary>
+public static class OutcomeBucketKeys
+{
+    /// <summary>Prefix for sport-grouped buckets, e.g. <c>Sport.6</c>.</summary>
+    public const string SportPrefix = "Sport.";
+
+    /// <summary>Prefix for score-bin buckets, e.g. <c>Bin.0.30-0.40</c>.</summary>
+    public const string BinPrefix = "Bin.";
+
+    /// <summary>Prefix for severity buckets, e.g. <c>Severity.High</c>.</summary>
+    public const string SeverityPrefix = "Severity.";
+
+    public const string SeverityLow = SeverityPrefix + "Low";
+    public const string SeverityMedium = SeverityPrefix + "Medium";
+    public const string SeverityHigh = SeverityPrefix + "High";
+}

src/Marathon.Application/Storage/EventQuery.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+namespace Marathon.Application.Storage;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Database-pushdown query for the event list pages: an inclusive date range plus
+/// an optional sport-code filter. Locale-sensitive search and sort are deliberately
+/// NOT part of this contract — they stay in the service layer where Cyrillic
+/// ordinal semantics are preserved (SQLite BINARY collation would change them).
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="Dates">Inclusive scheduled-at window.</param>
+/// <param name="SportCodes">When non-empty, restricts to these sport codes. Null/empty = all sports.</param>
+public sealed record EventQuery(
+    DateRange Dates,
+    IReadOnlyCollection<int>? SportCodes = null);

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/BuildBetJournalReportUseCase.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,173 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Betting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Builds a <see cref="BetJournalReport"/>: every persisted bet paired with its
+/// Closing-Line-Value, plus aggregate <see cref="BetJournalStats"/>.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// Closing-line lookup: for each distinct event in the journal, this use case
+/// queries pre-match snapshots within a window that ends at the event's
+/// <see cref="Event.ScheduledAt"/> and picks the latest snapshot whose
+/// <see cref="OddsSnapshot.CapturedAt"/> is still before kickoff. That snapshot
+/// is the "close" for CLV purposes.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// If the snapshot store has nothing within the lookback window, the bet
+/// receives a null CLV. Stats then exclude it from the average.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed class BuildBetJournalReportUseCase
+{
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events;
+    private readonly ISnapshotRepository _snapshots;
+    private readonly ILogger<BuildBetJournalReportUseCase> _logger;
+
+    public BuildBetJournalReportUseCase(
+        IPlacedBetRepository bets,
+        IEventRepository events,
+        ISnapshotRepository snapshots,
+        ILogger<BuildBetJournalReportUseCase> logger)
+    {
+        _bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
+        _events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
+        _snapshots = snapshots ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(snapshots));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+    }
+
+    public async Task<BetJournalReport> ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var bets = await _bets.ListAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        if (bets.Count == 0)
+        {
+            _logger.LogInformation("BuildBetJournalReportUseCase: no bets — empty report");
+            return new BetJournalReport(BetJournalStats.Empty, Array.Empty<BetJournalRow>());
+        }
+
+        var distinctEventIds = bets.Select(b => b.EventId).Distinct().ToList();
+
+        // Batch the event loads (was N+1). The closing-snapshot lookup stays per-event
+        // because it pushes ORDER BY / LIMIT 1 down to SQLite (one indexed row each)
+        // and is parameterised by that event's ScheduledAt.
+        var events = await _events.GetManyAsync(distinctEventIds, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        var closingByEvent = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, OddsSnapshot?>(distinctEventIds.Count);
+        foreach (var eventId in distinctEventIds)
+        {
+            ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
+
+            if (!events.TryGetValue(eventId, out var ev))
+            {
+                closingByEvent[eventId] = null;
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var closing = await _snapshots
+                .GetLatestPreMatchAsync(eventId, ev.ScheduledAt, ct)
+                .ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+            closingByEvent[eventId] = closing;
+        }
+
+        var rows = new List<BetJournalRow>(bets.Count);
+        foreach (var bet in bets)
+        {
+            ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
+            closingByEvent.TryGetValue(bet.EventId, out var closing);
+
+            var clv = ClosingLineValueCalculator.TryCompute(
+                takenRate: bet.Selection.Rate.Value,
+                placedSelection: bet.Selection,
+                closingSnapshot: closing);
+
+            rows.Add(new BetJournalRow(bet, clv));
+        }
+
+        rows.Sort((a, b) => b.Bet.PlacedAt.CompareTo(a.Bet.PlacedAt));
+
+        var stats = ComputeStats(rows);
+
+        _logger.LogInformation(
+            "BuildBetJournalReportUseCase: report built — {Total} bets, {Resolved} resolved, ROI={Roi:0.##}%",
+            stats.TotalBets, stats.ResolvedCount, stats.RoiPercent ?? 0m);
+
+        return new BetJournalReport(stats, rows);
+    }
+
+    private static BetJournalStats ComputeStats(IReadOnlyList<BetJournalRow> rows)
+    {
+        if (rows.Count == 0) return BetJournalStats.Empty;
+
+        var pending = 0;
+        var won = 0;
+        var lost = 0;
+        var voided = 0;
+        // Industry-standard ROI excludes pushes from turnover — staking on a Void
+        // bet returns the stake and is functionally a no-op, so counting it as
+        // turnover dilutes the ROI denominator and understates the user's edge.
+        // Only Won + Lost contribute to TotalStaked / TotalReturned.
+        var totalStaked = 0m;
+        var totalReturned = 0m;
+        decimal clvSum = 0m;
+        var clvCount = 0;
+
+        foreach (var row in rows)
+        {
+            switch (row.Bet.Outcome)
+            {
+                case BetOutcome.Pending: pending++; break;
+                case BetOutcome.Won: won++; break;
+                case BetOutcome.Lost: lost++; break;
+                case BetOutcome.Void: voided++; break;
+            }
+
+            if (row.Bet.Outcome is BetOutcome.Won or BetOutcome.Lost)
+            {
+                totalStaked += row.Bet.Stake;
+                totalReturned += row.Bet.GrossReturn ?? 0m;
+            }
+
+            if (row.ClvProbabilityDelta is { } clv)
+            {
+                clvSum += clv;
+                clvCount++;
+            }
+        }
+
+        var netProfit = totalReturned - totalStaked;
+        var winLoss = won + lost;
+
+        decimal? roi = totalStaked > 0m
+            ? Math.Round((netProfit / totalStaked) * 100m, 2)
+            : null;
+        decimal? strikeRate = winLoss > 0
+            ? Math.Round(((decimal)won / winLoss) * 100m, 2)
+            : null;
+        // CLV inputs are already 6-decimal-rounded by ClosingLineValueCalculator;
+        // round the mean only at the display boundary to avoid compounding bias.
+        decimal? avgClv = clvCount > 0
+            ? clvSum / clvCount
+            : null;
+
+        return new BetJournalStats(
+            TotalBets: rows.Count,
+            PendingCount: pending,
+            WonCount: won,
+            LostCount: lost,
+            VoidCount: voided,
+            TotalStaked: totalStaked,
+            TotalReturned: totalReturned,
+            NetProfit: netProfit,
+            RoiPercent: roi,
+            StrikeRatePercent: strikeRate,
+            AverageClvProbabilityDelta: avgClv);
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/DeletePlacedBetUseCase.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Removes a <see cref="Marathon.Domain.Entities.PlacedBet"/> from the journal
+/// by its identifier. Silent no-op when the id does not exist.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class DeletePlacedBetUseCase
+{
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
+    private readonly ILogger<DeletePlacedBetUseCase> _logger;
+
+    public DeletePlacedBetUseCase(
+        IPlacedBetRepository bets,
+        ILogger<DeletePlacedBetUseCase> logger)
+    {
+        _bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+    }
+
+    public async Task ExecuteAsync(Guid betId, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        await _bets.DeleteAsync(betId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        await _bets.SaveChangesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        _logger.LogInformation("DeletePlacedBetUseCase: removed bet {BetId}", betId);
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/DetectAnomaliesUseCase.cs

@@ -30,10 +30,10 @@ public sealed class DetectAnomaliesUseCase
     // Dedup window: two anomalies for the same event within this window are considered duplicates.
     private static readonly TimeSpan DedupWindow = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1);
 
-    private readonly IEventRepository    _eventRepo;
+    private readonly IEventRepository _eventRepo;
     private readonly ISnapshotRepository _snapshotRepo;
-    private readonly IAnomalyRepository  _anomalyRepo;
-    private readonly AnomalyOptions      _options;
+    private readonly IAnomalyRepository _anomalyRepo;
+    private readonly AnomalyOptions _options;
     private readonly ILogger<DetectAnomaliesUseCase> _logger;
 
     public DetectAnomaliesUseCase(
@@ -43,11 +43,11 @@ public sealed class DetectAnomaliesUseCase
         IOptions<AnomalyOptions> options,
         ILogger<DetectAnomaliesUseCase> logger)
     {
-        _eventRepo    = eventRepo    ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(eventRepo));
+        _eventRepo = eventRepo ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(eventRepo));
         _snapshotRepo = snapshotRepo ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(snapshotRepo));
-        _anomalyRepo  = anomalyRepo  ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(anomalyRepo));
-        _options      = (options     ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(options))).Value;
-        _logger       = logger       ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+        _anomalyRepo = anomalyRepo ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(anomalyRepo));
+        _options = (options ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(options))).Value;
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
     }
 
     /// <summary>
@@ -59,21 +59,32 @@ public sealed class DetectAnomaliesUseCase
     {
         _logger.LogInformation("DetectAnomaliesUseCase: cycle started");
 
-        var detector = new AnomalyDetector(
-            _options.SuspensionGapSeconds,
-            _options.OddsFlipThreshold,
-            _options.MinSnapshotCount);
+        var detectors = new IAnomalyDetector[]
+        {
+            new AnomalyDetector(
+                _options.SuspensionGapSeconds,
+                _options.OddsFlipThreshold,
+                _options.MinSnapshotCount),
+            new SteamMoveDetector(
+                _options.SteamMoveWindowSeconds,
+                _options.SteamMoveDriftThreshold,
+                _options.MinSnapshotCount,
+                _options.SuspensionGapSeconds),
+        };
 
         var events = await _eventRepo.ListAsync(ct);
         int newAnomalyCount = 0;
 
-        var now  = MoscowTime.Now;
+        var now = MoscowTime.Now;
         var from = now - SnapshotLookback;
 
         // Hoisted outside the per-event loop: load existing anomalies ONCE per cycle
-        // and slice per-event in the loop. Previously this was reloaded per event
-        // (O(N_events) round-trips). Reviewer W1, Phase 7.
+        // and index them by event so dedup is O(1) per event instead of scanning the
+        // whole list each time (was O(events × anomalies)). Reviewer W1, Phase 7.
         var existingAnomalies = await _anomalyRepo.ListAsync(ct);
+        var existingByEvent = existingAnomalies
+            .GroupBy(a => a.EventId)
+            .ToDictionary(g => g.Key, g => g.ToList());
 
         // Single batched query for all events' snapshots — replaces the prior
         // per-event ListByEventAsync round-trip (O(N) SQLite hits + N Include(Bets)
@@ -90,7 +101,10 @@ public sealed class DetectAnomaliesUseCase
                 var snapshots = snapshotsByEvent.TryGetValue(ev.Id, out var found)
                     ? found
                     : Array.Empty<OddsSnapshot>();
-                newAnomalyCount += await ProcessEventAsync(detector, ev, snapshots, existingAnomalies, ct);
+                var existingForEvent = existingByEvent.TryGetValue(ev.Id, out var slice)
+                    ? slice
+                    : new List<Anomaly>();
+                newAnomalyCount += await ProcessEventAsync(detectors, ev, snapshots, existingForEvent, ct);
             }
             catch (OperationCanceledException)
             {
@@ -114,22 +128,21 @@ public sealed class DetectAnomaliesUseCase
     // ── Private helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
     private async Task<int> ProcessEventAsync(
-        AnomalyDetector detector,
+        IReadOnlyList<IAnomalyDetector> detectors,
         Event ev,
         IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot> snapshots,
-        IReadOnlyList<Anomaly> existingAnomalies,
+        List<Anomaly> existingForEvent,
         CancellationToken ct)
     {
-        var detected = detector.Detect(ev.Id, snapshots);
+        // Fan out over every detector kind; dedup below keys on EventId + Kind so the
+        // flip and steam signals for one event persist independently.
+        var detected = detectors
+            .SelectMany(d => d.Detect(ev.Id, snapshots))
+            .ToList();
 
         if (detected.Count == 0)
             return 0;
 
-        // Slice the cycle-wide existing-anomaly list to just this event for dedup.
-        var existingForEvent = existingAnomalies
-            .Where(a => a.EventId == ev.Id)
-            .ToList();
-
         int persisted = 0;
         foreach (var anomaly in detected)
         {
@@ -151,7 +164,7 @@ public sealed class DetectAnomaliesUseCase
         // and their DetectedAt timestamps fall within the dedup window.
         return existing.Any(a =>
             a.EventId == candidate.EventId &&
-            a.Kind    == candidate.Kind    &&
+            a.Kind == candidate.Kind &&
             Math.Abs((a.DetectedAt - candidate.DetectedAt).TotalMinutes) <=
                 DedupWindow.TotalMinutes);
     }

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,245 @@
+using System.Globalization;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Reporting;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Builds an <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeReport"/> by joining every persisted
+/// <see cref="Anomaly"/> with the originating event and its
+/// <see cref="EventResult"/>, then running the pure
+/// <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator"/> over each pair.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// This is the answer to "does the SuspensionFlip detector actually predict the
+/// right side?" The report is the validator for the entire anomaly-detection
+/// premise of the product — without it, the algorithm's confidence score is
+/// just a number with no calibration.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// The use case loads all three collections in one pass each and performs the
+/// join in memory. Anomaly volumes are small (one per suspension interval per
+/// event) so this is well within budget. If volumes grow significantly the
+/// repository layer can later add a SQL-side join — the public shape of the
+/// report does not change.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed class EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Lowest score bin shown in the histogram. Score values below this never
+    /// appear because the detector enforces a configurable threshold (default
+    /// 0.30) — but the constant is repeated here so the bucketer is independent
+    /// of any specific configuration value.
+    /// </summary>
+    public const decimal MinScore = 0.30m;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Bin width for the score histogram. Yields 7 buckets:
+    /// [0.30, 0.40), [0.40, 0.50), [0.50, 0.60), [0.60, 0.70), [0.70, 0.80),
+    /// [0.80, 0.90), [0.90, 1.00]. The last bin is closed on the right.
+    /// </summary>
+    public const decimal BinWidth = 0.10m;
+
+    private readonly IAnomalyRepository _anomalies;
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events;
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results;
+    private readonly ILogger<EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase> _logger;
+
+    public EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase(
+        IAnomalyRepository anomalies,
+        IEventRepository events,
+        IResultRepository results,
+        ILogger<EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase> logger)
+    {
+        _anomalies = anomalies ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(anomalies));
+        _events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
+        _results = results ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(results));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+    }
+
+    public async Task<AnomalyOutcomeReport> ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        _logger.LogInformation("EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase: report build started");
+
+        var anomalies = await _anomalies.ListAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        if (anomalies.Count == 0)
+        {
+            _logger.LogInformation(
+                "EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase: no anomalies — empty report");
+            return EmptyReport();
+        }
+
+        // Batched lookups — a single query each, replacing the prior per-event
+        // GetAsync round-trip (N+1 against SQLite).
+        var distinctEventIds = anomalies.Select(a => a.EventId).Distinct().ToList();
+
+        var eventLookup = await _events.GetManyAsync(distinctEventIds, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        var resultLookup = await _results.GetManyAsync(distinctEventIds, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        var eventTitles = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, string>(eventLookup.Count);
+        foreach (var (id, ev) in eventLookup)
+            eventTitles[id] = ev.Title;
+
+        // Evaluate every anomaly through the pure domain function.
+        var resolved = new List<ResolvedAnomaly>();
+        var unresolved = new List<ResolvedAnomaly>();
+        foreach (var anomaly in anomalies)
+        {
+            ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
+
+            eventLookup.TryGetValue(anomaly.EventId, out var ev);
+            resultLookup.TryGetValue(anomaly.EventId, out var result);
+
+            var evaluated = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, ev?.Sport, result);
+
+            if (evaluated.Outcome == AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved)
+                unresolved.Add(evaluated);
+            else
+                resolved.Add(evaluated);
+        }
+
+        var resolvedOrdered = resolved
+            .OrderByDescending(r => r.DetectedAt)
+            .ToList();
+        var unresolvedOrdered = unresolved
+            .OrderByDescending(r => r.DetectedAt)
+            .ToList();
+
+        var hitCount = resolvedOrdered.Count(r => r.Outcome == AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit);
+        var missCount = resolvedOrdered.Count - hitCount;
+
+        var report = new AnomalyOutcomeReport(
+            TotalAnomalies: anomalies.Count,
+            ResolvedCount: resolvedOrdered.Count,
+            UnresolvedCount: unresolvedOrdered.Count,
+            HitCount: hitCount,
+            MissCount: missCount,
+            HitRate: ComputeRate(hitCount, resolvedOrdered.Count),
+            BySeverity: BuildSeverityBuckets(resolvedOrdered),
+            BySport: BuildSportBuckets(resolvedOrdered),
+            ByScoreBin: BuildScoreBins(resolvedOrdered),
+            Resolved: resolvedOrdered,
+            Unresolved: unresolvedOrdered,
+            EventTitles: eventTitles);
+
+        _logger.LogInformation(
+            "EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase: report ready — total={Total}, resolved={Resolved}, hits={Hits}",
+            report.TotalAnomalies, report.ResolvedCount, report.HitCount);
+
+        return report;
+    }
+
+    // ── Bucketers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    private static IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BuildSeverityBuckets(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<ResolvedAnomaly> resolved)
+    {
+        // Thresholds sourced from the Domain so the UI's severity badge and
+        // this report cannot drift out of sync — single source of truth.
+        return new[]
+        {
+            BuildBucket(OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityLow,
+                resolved.Where(r => r.Score < AnomalySeverityThresholds.Medium)),
+            BuildBucket(OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityMedium,
+                resolved.Where(r => r.Score >= AnomalySeverityThresholds.Medium
+                                 && r.Score < AnomalySeverityThresholds.High)),
+            BuildBucket(OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityHigh,
+                resolved.Where(r => r.Score >= AnomalySeverityThresholds.High)),
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BuildSportBuckets(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<ResolvedAnomaly> resolved)
+    {
+        return resolved
+            .Where(r => r.Sport is not null)
+            .GroupBy(r => r.Sport!.Value)
+            .OrderBy(g => g.Key)
+            .Select(g => BuildBucket(
+                key: string.Format(
+                    CultureInfo.InvariantCulture,
+                    "{0}{1}",
+                    OutcomeBucketKeys.SportPrefix,
+                    g.Key),
+                items: g))
+            .ToList();
+    }
+
+    private static IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BuildScoreBins(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<ResolvedAnomaly> resolved)
+    {
+        // Default range is the canonical [0.30, 1.00] with seven 0.10-wide bins.
+        // If the operator has lowered the detector's flip threshold and we have
+        // resolved anomalies below 0.30, prepend additional bins so every row in
+        // the report shows up in exactly one bucket — the histogram total must
+        // equal ResolvedCount no matter how the detector is tuned.
+        var floor = MinScore;
+        if (resolved.Count > 0)
+        {
+            var lowest = resolved.Min(r => r.Score);
+            if (lowest < MinScore)
+            {
+                var binsBelow = Math.Ceiling((MinScore - lowest) / BinWidth);
+                floor = MinScore - binsBelow * BinWidth;
+                if (floor < 0m) floor = 0m;
+            }
+        }
+
+        var bins = new List<OutcomeBucket>();
+        for (var start = floor; start < 1.0m; start += BinWidth)
+        {
+            var binStart = start;
+            var binEnd = start + BinWidth;
+            var isLast = binEnd >= 1.0m;
+
+            // Last bin is closed on the right so 1.00 lands in [0.90, 1.00].
+            var inBin = resolved.Where(r =>
+                r.Score >= binStart &&
+                (isLast ? r.Score <= 1.0m : r.Score < binEnd));
+
+            var key = string.Format(
+                CultureInfo.InvariantCulture,
+                "{0}{1:0.00}-{2:0.00}",
+                OutcomeBucketKeys.BinPrefix,
+                binStart,
+                Math.Min(binEnd, 1.0m));
+
+            bins.Add(BuildBucket(key, inBin));
+        }
+        return bins;
+    }
+
+    private static OutcomeBucket BuildBucket(string key, IEnumerable<ResolvedAnomaly> items)
+    {
+        var list = items as IReadOnlyCollection<ResolvedAnomaly> ?? items.ToList();
+        var total = list.Count;
+        var hits = list.Count(r => r.Outcome == AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit);
+        return new OutcomeBucket(key, total, hits, ComputeRate(hits, total));
+    }
+
+    private static decimal? ComputeRate(int numerator, int denominator) =>
+        denominator == 0
+            ? null
+            : Math.Round(numerator / (decimal)denominator, 4);
+
+    private static AnomalyOutcomeReport EmptyReport() =>
+        new(
+            TotalAnomalies: 0,
+            ResolvedCount: 0,
+            UnresolvedCount: 0,
+            HitCount: 0,
+            MissCount: 0,
+            HitRate: null,
+            BySeverity: Array.Empty<OutcomeBucket>(),
+            BySport: Array.Empty<OutcomeBucket>(),
+            ByScoreBin: Array.Empty<OutcomeBucket>(),
+            Resolved: Array.Empty<ResolvedAnomaly>(),
+            Unresolved: Array.Empty<ResolvedAnomaly>(),
+            EventTitles: new Dictionary<DomainEventId, string>());
+}

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/PullResultsUseCase.cs

@@ -72,10 +72,10 @@ public sealed class PullResultsUseCase
         IResultRepository resultRepo,
         ILogger<PullResultsUseCase> logger)
     {
-        _scraper    = scraper    ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(scraper));
-        _eventRepo  = eventRepo  ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(eventRepo));
+        _scraper = scraper ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(scraper));
+        _eventRepo = eventRepo ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(eventRepo));
         _resultRepo = resultRepo ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(resultRepo));
-        _logger     = logger     ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
     }
 
     /// <summary>
@@ -149,12 +149,13 @@ public sealed class PullResultsUseCase
     {
         if (selection is { Count: > 0 })
         {
+            // Batched load (was N+1); preserve the caller's selection order and
+            // silently drop ids with no stored event.
+            var events = await _eventRepo.GetManyAsync(selection, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
             var resolved = new List<Event>(selection.Count);
             foreach (var id in selection)
             {
-                ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
-                var ev = await _eventRepo.GetAsync(id, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
-                if (ev is not null)
+                if (events.TryGetValue(id, out var ev))
                     resolved.Add(ev);
             }
             return resolved;

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/RecordPlacedBetUseCase.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Records a new <see cref="PlacedBet"/> entered manually via the Journal UI.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// The use case validates that the referenced event exists, then persists the
+/// bet. If the event already has a final result the bet is graded on the spot
+/// via <see cref="Marathon.Domain.Betting.BetOutcomeResolver"/> — saves the
+/// user a round-trip to the resolver page when entering historical wagers.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed class RecordPlacedBetUseCase
+{
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events;
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results;
+    private readonly ILogger<RecordPlacedBetUseCase> _logger;
+
+    public RecordPlacedBetUseCase(
+        IPlacedBetRepository bets,
+        IEventRepository events,
+        IResultRepository results,
+        ILogger<RecordPlacedBetUseCase> logger)
+    {
+        _bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
+        _events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
+        _results = results ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(results));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Persists <paramref name="bet"/>. Returns the bet as stored — if the
+    /// event already has a result, the returned instance reflects the graded
+    /// <see cref="BetOutcome"/>.
+    /// </summary>
+    /// <exception cref="InvalidOperationException">
+    /// The bet references an unknown event. The journal does not allow free-form
+    /// event codes — wagers must be on events the scraper has captured so the
+    /// CLV calculator can compare against the closing snapshot.
+    /// </exception>
+    public async Task<PlacedBet> ExecuteAsync(PlacedBet bet, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(bet);
+
+        // Confirm the event exists in the local store.
+        var ev = await _events.GetAsync(bet.EventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        if (ev is null)
+        {
+            throw new InvalidOperationException(
+                $"Cannot record a bet on unknown event '{bet.EventId.Value}'. " +
+                "The event must already be present in the scrape store.");
+        }
+
+        var toPersist = bet;
+
+        // Auto-grade if a result is already available.
+        if (bet.Outcome == BetOutcome.Pending)
+        {
+            var result = await _results.GetAsync(bet.EventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+            if (result is not null)
+            {
+                var graded = Marathon.Domain.Betting.BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet.Selection, result);
+                if (graded is not null)
+                {
+                    toPersist = bet.WithOutcome(graded.Value);
+                    _logger.LogInformation(
+                        "RecordPlacedBetUseCase: bet {BetId} on event {EventId} auto-graded as {Outcome}",
+                        toPersist.Id, ((DomainEventId)toPersist.EventId).Value, graded.Value);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        await _bets.AddAsync(toPersist, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        await _bets.SaveChangesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        _logger.LogInformation(
+            "RecordPlacedBetUseCase: persisted bet {BetId} on event {EventId} stake={Stake} rate={Rate}",
+            toPersist.Id, ((DomainEventId)toPersist.EventId).Value, toPersist.Stake, toPersist.Selection.Rate.Value);
+
+        return toPersist;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/ResolvePendingBetsUseCase.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Domain.Betting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Sweeps the journal for <see cref="BetOutcome.Pending"/> bets whose events
+/// have been graded, and updates them in bulk via
+/// <see cref="BetOutcomeResolver"/>.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// Called on demand from the Journal page's "Resolve pending" button. The
+/// design is idempotent — bets that cannot be auto-graded (period-scope, or
+/// no result yet) are left untouched and surface again on the next pass.
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed class ResolvePendingBetsUseCase
+{
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets;
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results;
+    private readonly ILogger<ResolvePendingBetsUseCase> _logger;
+
+    public ResolvePendingBetsUseCase(
+        IPlacedBetRepository bets,
+        IResultRepository results,
+        ILogger<ResolvePendingBetsUseCase> logger)
+    {
+        _bets = bets ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(bets));
+        _results = results ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(results));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Returns the number of bets that were transitioned out of Pending in this pass.
+    /// </summary>
+    public async Task<int> ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var pending = await _bets.ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome.Pending, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        if (pending.Count == 0)
+        {
+            _logger.LogInformation("ResolvePendingBetsUseCase: no pending bets");
+            return 0;
+        }
+
+        // Cache results per event so we do not re-query for each bet on the same event.
+        var resultCache = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, EventResult?>();
+        var resolvedCount = 0;
+
+        foreach (var bet in pending)
+        {
+            ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
+
+            if (!resultCache.TryGetValue(bet.EventId, out var result))
+            {
+                result = await _results.GetAsync(bet.EventId, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+                resultCache[bet.EventId] = result;
+            }
+
+            if (result is null) continue;
+
+            var graded = BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet.Selection, result);
+            if (graded is null) continue;
+
+            var updated = bet.WithOutcome(graded.Value);
+            await _bets.UpdateAsync(updated, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+            resolvedCount++;
+        }
+
+        // Save before logging — if the batch fails, an exception bubbles out and
+        // the success-count log is never emitted; we never report a graded count
+        // that was rolled back.
+        if (resolvedCount > 0)
+            await _bets.SaveChangesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        _logger.LogInformation(
+            "ResolvePendingBetsUseCase: graded {Resolved} of {Pending} pending bets",
+            resolvedCount, pending.Count);
+
+        return resolvedCount;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Application/UseCases/RunBacktestUseCase.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Storage;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Loads every persisted anomaly paired with its event metadata and result,
+/// constructs <see cref="BacktestCandidate"/> rows, and runs the pure
+/// <see cref="BacktestSimulator"/> with the supplied strategy.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// Composes the two analytics features already in place: anomalies come from
+/// the SuspensionFlip detector, and results come from the results loader. The
+/// simulator never touches I/O — all data loading happens here, then the run
+/// is a deterministic function of (strategy, candidates).
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Anomalies whose evidence JSON fails to parse, whose source events lack a
+/// final result, or whose event row has been pruned are filtered out before
+/// simulation. They are not counted as "skipped" by the simulator — the
+/// simulator's <see cref="BacktestResult.Skipped"/> counter only reflects
+/// runs the strategy chose not to bet on (below threshold, no edge, etc.).
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed class RunBacktestUseCase
+{
+    private readonly IAnomalyRepository _anomalies;
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events;
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results;
+    private readonly ILogger<RunBacktestUseCase> _logger;
+
+    public RunBacktestUseCase(
+        IAnomalyRepository anomalies,
+        IEventRepository events,
+        IResultRepository results,
+        ILogger<RunBacktestUseCase> logger)
+    {
+        _anomalies = anomalies ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(anomalies));
+        _events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
+        _results = results ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(results));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>Runs the backtest over every graded anomaly (no date filter).</summary>
+    public Task<BacktestResult> ExecuteAsync(
+        BacktestStrategy strategy,
+        CancellationToken ct = default)
+        => ExecuteAsync(strategy, dateRange: null, ct);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Runs the backtest over anomalies detected within <paramref name="dateRange"/>
+    /// (inclusive); pass <c>null</c> to include every graded anomaly. The date filter
+    /// is pushed to SQL via <see cref="IAnomalyRepository.ListByDateRangeAsync"/>.
+    /// </summary>
+    public async Task<BacktestResult> ExecuteAsync(
+        BacktestStrategy strategy,
+        DateRange? dateRange,
+        CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(strategy);
+
+        _logger.LogInformation(
+            "RunBacktestUseCase: started — bankroll={Bankroll}, minScore={MinScore}, stakeRule={Rule}, range={Range}",
+            strategy.StartingBankroll, strategy.MinScore, strategy.StakeRule,
+            dateRange is null ? "all" : $"{dateRange.From:O}..{dateRange.To:O}");
+
+        var anomalies = dateRange is null
+            ? await _anomalies.ListAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false)
+            : await _anomalies.ListByDateRangeAsync(dateRange.From, dateRange.To, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        if (anomalies.Count == 0)
+        {
+            _logger.LogInformation("RunBacktestUseCase: no anomalies — empty result");
+            return BacktestSimulator.Run(strategy, Array.Empty<BacktestCandidate>());
+        }
+
+        // Batched lookups — a single query each, replacing the prior per-event
+        // GetAsync round-trip (N+1 against SQLite).
+        var distinctEventIds = anomalies.Select(a => a.EventId).Distinct().ToList();
+
+        var eventLookup = await _events.GetManyAsync(distinctEventIds, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        var resultLookup = await _results.GetManyAsync(distinctEventIds, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        var titles = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, string>(eventLookup.Count);
+        foreach (var (id, ev) in eventLookup)
+            titles[id] = ev.Title;
+
+        var candidates = new List<BacktestCandidate>(anomalies.Count);
+        foreach (var anomaly in anomalies)
+        {
+            ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
+
+            // Cannot simulate a bet whose event hasn't been graded yet.
+            if (!resultLookup.TryGetValue(anomaly.EventId, out var result))
+                continue;
+
+            if (!AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(anomaly.EvidenceJson, out var evidence))
+                continue;
+
+            eventLookup.TryGetValue(anomaly.EventId, out var ev);
+            candidates.Add(new BacktestCandidate(anomaly, evidence, result, ev?.Sport));
+        }
+
+        var simResult = BacktestSimulator.Run(strategy, candidates, titles);
+
+        _logger.LogInformation(
+            "RunBacktestUseCase: done — bets={Bets}, wins={Wins}, losses={Losses}, ROI={Roi:0.##}%, finalBankroll={Final}",
+            simResult.BetsPlaced, simResult.Wins, simResult.Losses,
+            simResult.RoiPercent ?? 0m, simResult.FinalBankroll);
+
+        return simResult;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyDetector.cs

@@ -1,5 +1,3 @@
-using System.Text.Json;
-using System.Text.Json.Serialization;
 using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
 using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
 using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
@@ -23,20 +21,15 @@ namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
 /// </list>
 ///
 /// This class is stateless and deterministic — identical inputs always produce identical output.
-/// It has no I/O or DI dependencies.
+/// It has no I/O or DI dependencies. Evidence formatting is delegated to
+/// <see cref="MatchWinEvidence"/> so every detector kind writes the identical shape.
 /// </summary>
-public sealed class AnomalyDetector
+public sealed class AnomalyDetector : IAnomalyDetector
 {
     private readonly int _suspensionGapSeconds;
     private readonly decimal _oddsFlipThreshold;
     private readonly int _minSnapshotCount;
 
-    private static readonly JsonSerializerOptions JsonOptions = new()
-    {
-        WriteIndented = false,
-        DefaultIgnoreCondition = JsonIgnoreCondition.WhenWritingNull,
-    };
-
     /// <param name="suspensionGapSeconds">
     /// Minimum gap between adjacent live snapshots (in seconds) to classify as a suspension.
     /// Default per spec: 60.
@@ -68,16 +61,7 @@ public sealed class AnomalyDetector
         _minSnapshotCount     = minSnapshotCount;
     }
 
-    /// <summary>
-    /// Analyses <paramref name="snapshots"/> for the given <paramref name="eventId"/> and
-    /// returns 0 or more anomalies detected in this timeline.
-    /// </summary>
-    /// <param name="eventId">The event being analysed.</param>
-    /// <param name="snapshots">All snapshots for this event (any source, any order).</param>
-    /// <returns>
-    /// An <see cref="IReadOnlyList{T}"/> of <see cref="Anomaly"/> records, one per qualifying
-    /// suspension interval. May be empty.
-    /// </returns>
+    /// <inheritdoc />
     public IReadOnlyList<Anomaly> Detect(EventId eventId, IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot> snapshots)
     {
         ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(eventId);
@@ -119,9 +103,9 @@ public sealed class AnomalyDetector
 
     private Anomaly? TryDetectFlip(EventId eventId, SuspensionInterval interval)
     {
-        // Extract Match-Win bets from each snapshot.
-        var preProbs  = ExtractMatchWinProbabilities(interval.PreSuspension);
-        var postProbs = ExtractMatchWinProbabilities(interval.PostSuspension);
+        // Extract Match-Win implied probabilities from each snapshot.
+        var preProbs  = MatchWinEvidence.Extract(interval.PreSuspension);
+        var postProbs = MatchWinEvidence.Extract(interval.PostSuspension);
 
         // Cannot compute flip if either snapshot lacks Win bets.
         if (preProbs is null || postProbs is null)
@@ -129,10 +113,8 @@ public sealed class AnomalyDetector
 
         // Step 4 — compute flip score = max(|p_post[i] − p_pre[i]|) across common sides.
         decimal flipScore = 0m;
-        flipScore = Math.Max(flipScore,
-            Math.Abs(postProbs.P1 - preProbs.P1));
-        flipScore = Math.Max(flipScore,
-            Math.Abs(postProbs.P2 - preProbs.P2));
+        flipScore = Math.Max(flipScore, Math.Abs(postProbs.P1 - preProbs.P1));
+        flipScore = Math.Max(flipScore, Math.Abs(postProbs.P2 - preProbs.P2));
         if (preProbs.PDraw.HasValue && postProbs.PDraw.HasValue)
         {
             flipScore = Math.Max(flipScore,
@@ -140,7 +122,8 @@ public sealed class AnomalyDetector
         }
 
         // Step 5 — favourite-changed test: argmax of implied probability must differ.
-        bool favouriteChanged = DetermineFavourite(preProbs) != DetermineFavourite(postProbs);
+        bool favouriteChanged =
+            MatchWinEvidence.Favourite(preProbs) != MatchWinEvidence.Favourite(postProbs);
 
         if (flipScore < _oddsFlipThreshold || !favouriteChanged)
             return null;
@@ -148,8 +131,11 @@ public sealed class AnomalyDetector
         // Clamp score to [0, 1] before constructing the Anomaly (domain invariant).
         var clampedScore = Math.Min(1m, flipScore);
 
-        // Step 6 — build evidence JSON.
-        var evidenceJson = BuildEvidenceJson(interval, preProbs, postProbs);
+        // Step 6 — build evidence JSON via the shared formatter.
+        var evidenceJson = MatchWinEvidence.BuildJson(
+            (int)interval.Gap.TotalSeconds,
+            interval.PreSuspension, preProbs,
+            interval.PostSuspension, postProbs);
 
         return new Anomaly(
             Id:          Guid.NewGuid(),
@@ -159,100 +145,4 @@ public sealed class AnomalyDetector
             Score:       clampedScore,
             EvidenceJson: evidenceJson);
     }
-
-    private static MatchWinProbabilities? ExtractMatchWinProbabilities(OddsSnapshot snapshot)
-    {
-        // Find Match-scope Win bets.
-        var matchWinBets = snapshot.Bets
-            .Where(b => b.Scope is MatchScope && b.Type == BetType.Win)
-            .ToList();
-
-        var win1 = matchWinBets.FirstOrDefault(b => b.Side == Side.Side1);
-        var win2 = matchWinBets.FirstOrDefault(b => b.Side == Side.Side2);
-
-        if (win1 is null || win2 is null)
-            return null; // Not enough data.
-
-        // Find optional Draw bet (MatchScope, BetType.Draw).
-        var drawBet = snapshot.Bets
-            .FirstOrDefault(b => b.Scope is MatchScope && b.Type == BetType.Draw);
-
-        // Raw implied probabilities: p = 1 / rate.
-        decimal rawP1   = 1m / win1.Rate.Value;
-        decimal rawP2   = 1m / win2.Rate.Value;
-        decimal rawDraw = drawBet is not null ? 1m / drawBet.Rate.Value : 0m;
-        decimal total   = rawP1 + rawP2 + rawDraw;
-
-        // Normalise so they sum to 1.
-        decimal p1   = rawP1   / total;
-        decimal p2   = rawP2   / total;
-        decimal pDraw = drawBet is not null ? rawDraw / total : 0m;
-
-        return new MatchWinProbabilities(
-            P1:     p1,
-            PDraw:  drawBet is not null ? pDraw : null,
-            P2:     p2,
-            Rate1:  win1.Rate.Value,
-            RateDraw: drawBet?.Rate.Value,
-            Rate2:  win2.Rate.Value);
-    }
-
-    private static string DetermineFavourite(MatchWinProbabilities probs)
-    {
-        // The favourite is the side with the highest normalised implied probability.
-        if (probs.PDraw.HasValue && probs.PDraw.Value > probs.P1 && probs.PDraw.Value > probs.P2)
-            return "Draw";
-        return probs.P1 >= probs.P2 ? "Side1" : "Side2";
-    }
-
-    private string BuildEvidenceJson(
-        SuspensionInterval interval,
-        MatchWinProbabilities preProbs,
-        MatchWinProbabilities postProbs)
-    {
-        var payload = new EvidencePayload(
-            SuspensionGapSeconds: (int)interval.Gap.TotalSeconds,
-            PreSuspension: new SnapshotEvidence(
-                CapturedAt: interval.PreSuspension.CapturedAt.ToString("O"),
-                P1:         preProbs.P1,
-                PDraw:      preProbs.PDraw,
-                P2:         preProbs.P2,
-                Rate1:      preProbs.Rate1,
-                RateDraw:   preProbs.RateDraw,
-                Rate2:      preProbs.Rate2),
-            PostSuspension: new SnapshotEvidence(
-                CapturedAt: interval.PostSuspension.CapturedAt.ToString("O"),
-                P1:         postProbs.P1,
-                PDraw:      postProbs.PDraw,
-                P2:         postProbs.P2,
-                Rate1:      postProbs.Rate1,
-                RateDraw:   postProbs.RateDraw,
-                Rate2:      postProbs.Rate2));
-
-        return JsonSerializer.Serialize(payload, JsonOptions);
-    }
-
-    // ── Nested types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-    private sealed record MatchWinProbabilities(
-        decimal P1,
-        decimal? PDraw,
-        decimal P2,
-        decimal Rate1,
-        decimal? RateDraw,
-        decimal Rate2);
-
-    private sealed record EvidencePayload(
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("suspensionGapSeconds")] int SuspensionGapSeconds,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("preSuspension")]  SnapshotEvidence PreSuspension,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("postSuspension")] SnapshotEvidence PostSuspension);
-
-    private sealed record SnapshotEvidence(
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("capturedAt")] string CapturedAt,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("p1")]         decimal P1,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("pDraw")]      decimal? PDraw,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("p2")]         decimal P2,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("rate1")]      decimal Rate1,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("rateDraw")]   decimal? RateDraw,
-        [property: JsonPropertyName("rate2")]      decimal Rate2);
 }

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyEvidenceData.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+using System.Text.Json;
+using System.Text.Json.Serialization;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Strongly typed projection of the JSON payload written by <see cref="AnomalyDetector"/>
+/// into <see cref="Anomaly.EvidenceJson"/>. Captures pre- and post-suspension snapshots
+/// of normalised implied probabilities and raw rates for the Match-Win market.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// The evaluator and any reader that needs to inspect an anomaly's evidence should
+/// parse via <see cref="AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse"/> rather than re-implement
+/// the JSON shape — the detector owns the schema.
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed record AnomalyEvidenceData(
+    int SuspensionGapSeconds,
+    AnomalyEvidenceSide PreSuspension,
+    AnomalyEvidenceSide PostSuspension);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// One side (pre or post) of a suspension interval. Probabilities are normalised
+/// so that <c>P1 + (PDraw ?? 0) + P2 == 1</c>. Two-way markets (e.g. tennis)
+/// leave <see cref="PDraw"/> and <see cref="RateDraw"/> null.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed record AnomalyEvidenceSide(
+    DateTimeOffset CapturedAt,
+    decimal P1,
+    decimal? PDraw,
+    decimal P2,
+    decimal Rate1,
+    decimal? RateDraw,
+    decimal Rate2)
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The side carrying the highest normalised implied probability — i.e.,
+    /// the bookmaker's favourite at this point in time.
+    /// </summary>
+    public Side Favourite
+    {
+        get
+        {
+            // Three-way: include Draw in the argmax.
+            var best = Side.Side1;
+            var bestValue = P1;
+            if (PDraw is { } pd && pd > bestValue)
+            {
+                best = Side.Draw;
+                bestValue = pd;
+            }
+            if (P2 > bestValue)
+            {
+                best = Side.Side2;
+            }
+            return best;
+        }
+    }
+}
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Parses the <see cref="Anomaly.EvidenceJson"/> string emitted by
+/// <see cref="AnomalyDetector"/>. Tolerant of malformed payloads — returns false
+/// rather than throwing so callers can skip un-parseable anomalies silently.
+/// </summary>
+public static class AnomalyEvidenceParser
+{
+    private static readonly JsonSerializerOptions JsonOptions = new()
+    {
+        PropertyNameCaseInsensitive = true,
+    };
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Attempts to deserialise the evidence JSON. Returns <c>true</c> only when
+    /// both pre- and post-suspension snapshots are present.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static bool TryParse(string? evidenceJson, out AnomalyEvidenceData data)
+    {
+        data = default!;
+        if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(evidenceJson)) return false;
+
+        try
+        {
+            var dto = JsonSerializer.Deserialize<EvidenceDto>(evidenceJson, JsonOptions);
+            if (dto is null || dto.PreSuspension is null || dto.PostSuspension is null)
+                return false;
+
+            data = new AnomalyEvidenceData(
+                SuspensionGapSeconds: dto.SuspensionGapSeconds,
+                PreSuspension: ToSide(dto.PreSuspension),
+                PostSuspension: ToSide(dto.PostSuspension));
+            return true;
+        }
+        catch (JsonException)
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static AnomalyEvidenceSide ToSide(EvidenceSideDto dto) =>
+        new(
+            CapturedAt: dto.CapturedAt,
+            P1: dto.P1 ?? 0m,
+            PDraw: dto.PDraw,
+            P2: dto.P2 ?? 0m,
+            Rate1: dto.Rate1 ?? 0m,
+            RateDraw: dto.RateDraw,
+            Rate2: dto.Rate2 ?? 0m);
+
+    private sealed class EvidenceDto
+    {
+        [JsonPropertyName("suspensionGapSeconds")]
+        public int SuspensionGapSeconds { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("preSuspension")]
+        public EvidenceSideDto? PreSuspension { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("postSuspension")]
+        public EvidenceSideDto? PostSuspension { get; init; }
+    }
+
+    private sealed class EvidenceSideDto
+    {
+        [JsonPropertyName("capturedAt")]
+        public DateTimeOffset CapturedAt { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("p1")]
+        public decimal? P1 { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("pDraw")]
+        public decimal? PDraw { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("p2")]
+        public decimal? P2 { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("rate1")]
+        public decimal? Rate1 { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("rateDraw")]
+        public decimal? RateDraw { get; init; }
+
+        [JsonPropertyName("rate2")]
+        public decimal? Rate2 { get; init; }
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyOutcome.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Verdict produced by comparing an anomaly's predicted post-flip favourite
+/// against the actual <see cref="EventResult.WinnerSide"/>.
+/// </summary>
+public enum AnomalyOutcomeKind
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The post-flip favourite (the side the bookmaker shortened odds on AFTER
+    /// the suspension) ended up winning. The flip was directionally correct.
+    /// </summary>
+    Hit,
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The post-flip favourite did NOT win. The flip pointed at the wrong side.
+    /// </summary>
+    Miss,
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// No <see cref="EventResult"/> is available yet — outcome cannot be judged.
+    /// </summary>
+    Unresolved,
+}
+
+/// <summary>
+/// One anomaly paired with its evaluated outcome. Surfaced to the UI so each
+/// resolved anomaly can be reviewed individually (e.g., when investigating
+/// why the algorithm got a specific event wrong).
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <see cref="PreFlipFavourite"/> and <see cref="PostFlipFavourite"/> are null
+/// when the anomaly's evidence JSON could not be parsed — the outcome will be
+/// <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved"/> in that case. Encoding the
+/// absence keeps consumers from being shown a fabricated side.
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed record ResolvedAnomaly(
+    Guid AnomalyId,
+    EventId EventId,
+    DateTimeOffset DetectedAt,
+    decimal Score,
+    AnomalyKind Kind,
+    SportCode? Sport,
+    Side? PreFlipFavourite,
+    Side? PostFlipFavourite,
+    Side? ActualWinner,
+    AnomalyOutcomeKind Outcome);

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Pure domain function that evaluates whether a <see cref="AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip"/>
+/// anomaly's prediction (the post-suspension favourite) matched the actual
+/// <see cref="EventResult.WinnerSide"/>.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// A "hit" is recorded when the side carrying the highest implied probability
+/// in <see cref="AnomalyEvidenceData.PostSuspension"/> equals
+/// <see cref="EventResult.WinnerSide"/>. For two-way markets (tennis), Draw is
+/// not a possible favourite — the evaluator naturally never emits Draw there.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Stateless, deterministic, no I/O. Safe to call in tight loops.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public static class AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Evaluates one anomaly against its event (optional metadata) and its result
+    /// (optional — null when the match hasn't been graded yet).
+    /// </summary>
+    /// <param name="anomaly">The persisted anomaly.</param>
+    /// <param name="sport">
+    /// The event's sport — surfaced into <see cref="ResolvedAnomaly"/> so the UI
+    /// can group by sport. Null when the originating event row is missing.
+    /// </param>
+    /// <param name="result">The event's final result, if known.</param>
+    /// <returns>
+    /// A <see cref="ResolvedAnomaly"/> with <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved"/>
+    /// when <paramref name="result"/> is null or the evidence JSON cannot be parsed,
+    /// otherwise <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit"/> / <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss"/>.
+    /// </returns>
+    public static ResolvedAnomaly Evaluate(
+        Anomaly anomaly,
+        SportCode? sport,
+        EventResult? result)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(anomaly);
+
+        if (!AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(anomaly.EvidenceJson, out var data))
+        {
+            // Cannot determine favourite without evidence; treat as unresolved.
+            return new ResolvedAnomaly(
+                AnomalyId: anomaly.Id,
+                EventId: anomaly.EventId,
+                DetectedAt: anomaly.DetectedAt,
+                Score: anomaly.Score,
+                Kind: anomaly.Kind,
+                Sport: sport,
+                PreFlipFavourite: null,
+                PostFlipFavourite: null,
+                ActualWinner: result?.WinnerSide,
+                Outcome: AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
+        }
+
+        var preFav = data.PreSuspension.Favourite;
+        var postFav = data.PostSuspension.Favourite;
+
+        if (result is null)
+        {
+            return new ResolvedAnomaly(
+                AnomalyId: anomaly.Id,
+                EventId: anomaly.EventId,
+                DetectedAt: anomaly.DetectedAt,
+                Score: anomaly.Score,
+                Kind: anomaly.Kind,
+                Sport: sport,
+                PreFlipFavourite: preFav,
+                PostFlipFavourite: postFav,
+                ActualWinner: null,
+                Outcome: AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
+        }
+
+        // Guard rail for sport-specific impossibilities. A two-way market
+        // (e.g. tennis) cannot produce a Draw outcome — if one shows up the
+        // EventResult disagrees with the evidence schema, so we refuse to
+        // grade it instead of silently counting it as a Miss.
+        var isTwoWay = data.PreSuspension.PDraw is null && data.PostSuspension.PDraw is null;
+        if (isTwoWay && result.WinnerSide == Side.Draw)
+        {
+            return new ResolvedAnomaly(
+                AnomalyId: anomaly.Id,
+                EventId: anomaly.EventId,
+                DetectedAt: anomaly.DetectedAt,
+                Score: anomaly.Score,
+                Kind: anomaly.Kind,
+                Sport: sport,
+                PreFlipFavourite: preFav,
+                PostFlipFavourite: postFav,
+                ActualWinner: result.WinnerSide,
+                Outcome: AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
+        }
+
+        var outcome = postFav == result.WinnerSide
+            ? AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit
+            : AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss;
+
+        return new ResolvedAnomaly(
+            AnomalyId: anomaly.Id,
+            EventId: anomaly.EventId,
+            DetectedAt: anomaly.DetectedAt,
+            Score: anomaly.Score,
+            Kind: anomaly.Kind,
+            Sport: sport,
+            PreFlipFavourite: preFav,
+            PostFlipFavourite: postFav,
+            ActualWinner: result.WinnerSide,
+            Outcome: outcome);
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/AnomalySeverityThresholds.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Single source of truth for the severity bucket boundaries that the UI
+/// pill / badge, the Insights breakdowns, and any future reporter share.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// Buckets are inclusive on the left, exclusive on the right (except High
+/// which extends to 1.00 inclusive):
+/// <list type="bullet">
+///   <item>Low      [<see cref="Low"/>,    <see cref="Medium"/>)</item>
+///   <item>Medium   [<see cref="Medium"/>, <see cref="High"/>)</item>
+///   <item>High     [<see cref="High"/>,   1.00]</item>
+/// </list>
+/// Defined at the Domain layer so both the Application reporter and the
+/// Marathon.UI severity rules consume the same numbers — re-tuning happens
+/// in one place.
+/// </remarks>
+public static class AnomalySeverityThresholds
+{
+    /// <summary>Lower bound of the Low bucket. Matches the detector's default flip threshold.</summary>
+    public const decimal Low = 0.30m;
+
+    /// <summary>Lower bound of the Medium bucket.</summary>
+    public const decimal Medium = 0.45m;
+
+    /// <summary>Lower bound of the High bucket.</summary>
+    public const decimal High = 0.60m;
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/IAnomalyDetector.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// A pure, stateless detector that scans one event's snapshot timeline and returns
+/// any anomalies it finds. Implementations are deterministic and free of I/O so they
+/// can be composed (fanned out) and unit-tested in isolation.
+/// </summary>
+public interface IAnomalyDetector
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Analyses <paramref name="snapshots"/> for <paramref name="eventId"/> and returns
+    /// 0 or more anomalies. May be empty; never null.
+    /// </summary>
+    IReadOnlyList<Anomaly> Detect(EventId eventId, IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot> snapshots);
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/MatchWinEvidence.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+using System.Text.Json;
+using System.Text.Json.Serialization;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Shared helper for the match-win implied-probability extraction and the canonical
+/// pre/post evidence-JSON shape used by every <see cref="IAnomalyDetector"/>.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// Centralising the evidence format here guarantees that all detector kinds write the
+/// identical on-disk shape, so the UI parser (<c>AnomalyEvidenceParser</c>) and the
+/// outcome evaluator (<see cref="AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator"/>) work for every kind
+/// without branching. The <c>suspensionGapSeconds</c> field carries the elapsed
+/// seconds between the two snapshots — a suspension gap for flips, a drift window for
+/// steam moves.
+/// </remarks>
+internal static class MatchWinEvidence
+{
+    private static readonly JsonSerializerOptions JsonOptions = new()
+    {
+        WriteIndented = false,
+        DefaultIgnoreCondition = JsonIgnoreCondition.WhenWritingNull,
+    };
+
+    /// <summary>Normalised match-win implied probabilities + raw rates for a snapshot.</summary>
+    public sealed record Probabilities(
+        decimal P1,
+        decimal? PDraw,
+        decimal P2,
+        decimal Rate1,
+        decimal? RateDraw,
+        decimal Rate2);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Extracts normalised match-win implied probabilities, or null when the snapshot
+    /// lacks both Side1 and Side2 Match-Win bets.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static Probabilities? Extract(OddsSnapshot snapshot)
+    {
+        var matchWinBets = snapshot.Bets
+            .Where(b => b.Scope is MatchScope && b.Type == BetType.Win)
+            .ToList();
+
+        var win1 = matchWinBets.FirstOrDefault(b => b.Side == Side.Side1);
+        var win2 = matchWinBets.FirstOrDefault(b => b.Side == Side.Side2);
+        if (win1 is null || win2 is null)
+            return null;
+
+        var drawBet = snapshot.Bets
+            .FirstOrDefault(b => b.Scope is MatchScope && b.Type == BetType.Draw);
+
+        // Raw implied probabilities: p = 1 / rate; normalise so they sum to 1.
+        decimal rawP1 = 1m / win1.Rate.Value;
+        decimal rawP2 = 1m / win2.Rate.Value;
+        decimal rawDraw = drawBet is not null ? 1m / drawBet.Rate.Value : 0m;
+        decimal total = rawP1 + rawP2 + rawDraw;
+
+        return new Probabilities(
+            P1: rawP1 / total,
+            PDraw: drawBet is not null ? rawDraw / total : null,
+            P2: rawP2 / total,
+            Rate1: win1.Rate.Value,
+            RateDraw: drawBet?.Rate.Value,
+            Rate2: win2.Rate.Value);
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>Label of the side carrying the highest normalised implied probability.</summary>
+    public static string Favourite(Probabilities p)
+    {
+        if (p.PDraw.HasValue && p.PDraw.Value > p.P1 && p.PDraw.Value > p.P2)
+            return "Draw";
+        return p.P1 >= p.P2 ? "Side1" : "Side2";
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>Serialises the canonical pre/post evidence payload.</summary>
+    public static string BuildJson(
+        int gapSeconds,
+        OddsSnapshot pre,
+        Probabilities preProbs,
+        OddsSnapshot post,
+        Probabilities postProbs)
+    {
+        var payload = new EvidencePayload(
+            SuspensionGapSeconds: gapSeconds,
+            PreSuspension: ToEvidence(pre, preProbs),
+            PostSuspension: ToEvidence(post, postProbs));
+
+        return JsonSerializer.Serialize(payload, JsonOptions);
+    }
+
+    private static SnapshotEvidence ToEvidence(OddsSnapshot snapshot, Probabilities p) =>
+        new(
+            CapturedAt: snapshot.CapturedAt.ToString("O"),
+            P1: p.P1,
+            PDraw: p.PDraw,
+            P2: p.P2,
+            Rate1: p.Rate1,
+            RateDraw: p.RateDraw,
+            Rate2: p.Rate2);
+
+    private sealed record EvidencePayload(
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("suspensionGapSeconds")] int SuspensionGapSeconds,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("preSuspension")] SnapshotEvidence PreSuspension,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("postSuspension")] SnapshotEvidence PostSuspension);
+
+    private sealed record SnapshotEvidence(
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("capturedAt")] string CapturedAt,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("p1")] decimal P1,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("pDraw")] decimal? PDraw,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("p2")] decimal P2,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("rate1")] decimal Rate1,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("rateDraw")] decimal? RateDraw,
+        [property: JsonPropertyName("rate2")] decimal Rate2);
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/AnomalyDetection/SteamMoveDetector.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Detects a "steam move": a rapid, one-directional rise in a side's normalised
+/// implied probability over a short CONTINUOUS window — money moving the line.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// A window is only considered when it contains no suspension-sized gap between
+/// consecutive snapshots (controlled by <c>maxStepGapSeconds</c>); drift across a
+/// suspension is the <see cref="AnomalyDetector"/>'s (SuspensionFlip) territory, so
+/// the two detectors never double-flag the same interval.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Emits an <see cref="AnomalyKind.SteamMove"/> anomaly whose pre/post evidence
+/// brackets the drift, written in the shared <see cref="MatchWinEvidence"/> shape so
+/// the UI and <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator"/> handle it without branching.
+/// A sustained steam may cross the threshold at several consecutive snapshots; those
+/// are collapsed to one persisted row by the detection use case's dedup window.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public sealed class SteamMoveDetector : IAnomalyDetector
+{
+    private readonly int _windowSeconds;
+    private readonly decimal _driftThreshold;
+    private readonly int _minSnapshotCount;
+    private readonly int _maxStepGapSeconds;
+
+    /// <param name="windowSeconds">Trailing window (seconds) over which drift is measured.</param>
+    /// <param name="driftThreshold">Minimum one-directional implied-probability rise to flag; in (0, 1).</param>
+    /// <param name="minSnapshotCount">Minimum live snapshots before detection runs (>= 2).</param>
+    /// <param name="maxStepGapSeconds">
+    /// Maximum gap between consecutive snapshots for the window to count as continuous.
+    /// A larger gap means a suspension occurred — that is flip territory, not steam.
+    /// </param>
+    public SteamMoveDetector(int windowSeconds, decimal driftThreshold, int minSnapshotCount, int maxStepGapSeconds)
+    {
+        if (windowSeconds <= 0)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(windowSeconds), windowSeconds, "Must be positive.");
+        if (driftThreshold is <= 0m or >= 1m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(driftThreshold), driftThreshold, "Must be in (0, 1).");
+        if (minSnapshotCount < 2)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(minSnapshotCount), minSnapshotCount, "Must be at least 2.");
+        if (maxStepGapSeconds <= 0)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(maxStepGapSeconds), maxStepGapSeconds, "Must be positive.");
+
+        _windowSeconds = windowSeconds;
+        _driftThreshold = driftThreshold;
+        _minSnapshotCount = minSnapshotCount;
+        _maxStepGapSeconds = maxStepGapSeconds;
+    }
+
+    /// <inheritdoc />
+    public IReadOnlyList<Anomaly> Detect(EventId eventId, IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot> snapshots)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(eventId);
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(snapshots);
+
+        var live = snapshots
+            .Where(s => s.Source == OddsSource.Live)
+            .OrderBy(s => s.CapturedAt)
+            .ToList();
+
+        if (live.Count < _minSnapshotCount)
+            return Array.Empty<Anomaly>();
+
+        var window = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(_windowSeconds);
+        var maxStepGap = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(_maxStepGapSeconds);
+
+        var anomalies = new List<Anomaly>();
+        int windowStart = 0;
+        int continuityStart = 0;
+
+        for (int end = 1; end < live.Count; end++)
+        {
+            // A suspension-sized step resets continuity: the drift after it is a flip,
+            // not a steam move, so steam windows never span a suspension.
+            if (live[end].CapturedAt - live[end - 1].CapturedAt > maxStepGap)
+                continuityStart = end;
+
+            // Shrink the trailing window so [windowStart, end] is within windowSeconds.
+            while (live[end].CapturedAt - live[windowStart].CapturedAt > window)
+                windowStart++;
+
+            int start = Math.Max(windowStart, continuityStart);
+            if (start >= end)
+                continue;
+
+            var pre = MatchWinEvidence.Extract(live[start]);
+            var post = MatchWinEvidence.Extract(live[end]);
+            if (pre is null || post is null)
+                continue;
+
+            // One-directional rise: a side's normalised probability INCREASED (odds
+            // shortened) by at least the threshold — money steamed onto that side.
+            decimal drift = Math.Max(post.P1 - pre.P1, post.P2 - pre.P2);
+            if (pre.PDraw.HasValue && post.PDraw.HasValue)
+                drift = Math.Max(drift, post.PDraw.Value - pre.PDraw.Value);
+
+            if (drift < _driftThreshold)
+                continue;
+
+            var gapSeconds = (int)(live[end].CapturedAt - live[start].CapturedAt).TotalSeconds;
+            var evidenceJson = MatchWinEvidence.BuildJson(gapSeconds, live[start], pre, live[end], post);
+
+            anomalies.Add(new Anomaly(
+                Id:          Guid.NewGuid(),
+                EventId:     eventId,
+                DetectedAt:  MoscowTime.Now,
+                Kind:        AnomalyKind.SteamMove,
+                Score:       Math.Min(1m, drift),
+                EvidenceJson: evidenceJson));
+        }
+
+        return anomalies.AsReadOnly();
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Backtesting/BacktestCandidate.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Input row for <see cref="BacktestSimulator"/> — one anomaly fully resolved
+/// against its event metadata and result. The use case constructs these once
+/// per simulation run and feeds them to the pure simulator in chronological
+/// order.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="Anomaly">The flagged anomaly being simulated.</param>
+/// <param name="Evidence">
+/// Parsed evidence payload (pre- and post-suspension snapshots). The simulator
+/// reads the post-suspension favourite and rate from here.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="Result">Final event result — drives the win/loss verdict.</param>
+/// <param name="Sport">Sport metadata, optional, surfaced into the trace row.</param>
+public sealed record BacktestCandidate(
+    Anomaly Anomaly,
+    AnomalyEvidenceData Evidence,
+    EventResult Result,
+    SportCode? Sport);

src/Marathon.Domain/Backtesting/BacktestResult.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Aggregate output of one simulation run. Contains both the headline numbers
+/// the user looks at (final bankroll, ROI, max drawdown) and the per-bet
+/// trace needed to draw an equity curve.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="StartingBankroll">Echoed from the strategy for the UI.</param>
+/// <param name="FinalBankroll">Bankroll after the last simulated bet settled.</param>
+/// <param name="NetProfit"><c>FinalBankroll − StartingBankroll</c>.</param>
+/// <param name="RoiPercent">
+/// <c>NetProfit / TotalStaked × 100</c>. Null when no bets were placed
+/// (no anomaly met the threshold, or the bankroll went to zero before any
+/// stake could be sized).
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="TotalStaked">Sum of stake sizes across every settled bet.</param>
+/// <param name="TotalReturned">Sum of gross returns across every settled bet.</param>
+/// <param name="MaxDrawdown">
+/// Largest peak-to-trough drop in bankroll observed during the run, as an
+/// absolute amount. Always ≥ 0.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="MaxDrawdownPercent">
+/// <see cref="MaxDrawdown"/> as a percentage of the peak that preceded it.
+/// Null when there were no draws (no bets or no losses).
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="BetsPlaced">Total bets the strategy actually placed.</param>
+/// <param name="Wins">Settled bets whose post-flip favourite won.</param>
+/// <param name="Losses">Settled bets whose post-flip favourite lost.</param>
+/// <param name="Skipped">
+/// Total anomalies inspected but skipped. Equals
+/// <see cref="SkippedByThreshold"/> + <see cref="SkippedByDataQuality"/> +
+/// <see cref="SkippedByBankroll"/>. Surfaced separately so the UI can
+/// distinguish a strategy choice ("threshold too high") from a real-world
+/// signal ("bankroll empty") or a data-quality issue.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="SkippedByThreshold">
+/// Skipped because <c>Anomaly.Score &lt; strategy.MinScore</c> — pure strategy choice.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="SkippedByDataQuality">
+/// Skipped because the evidence parsed but the post-flip favourite has no
+/// rate / probability, or because a two-way market produced a Draw winner.
+/// Strategy-orthogonal — these would be skipped under any rule.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="SkippedByBankroll">
+/// Skipped because the sized stake was non-positive (Kelly returned no edge,
+/// or bankroll was depleted) or exceeded the current bankroll.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="MaxWinStreak">Longest run of consecutive wins.</param>
+/// <param name="MaxLossStreak">Longest run of consecutive losses.</param>
+/// <param name="Trace">
+/// Per-bet records in chronological order — drives the equity curve.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="EventTitles">
+/// Pre-shaped <c>"Side1Name vs Side2Name"</c> strings keyed by event id, for
+/// every event in <see cref="Trace"/>. Carried alongside the result so the UI
+/// projection does not need a second pass over <c>IEventRepository</c>.
+/// Missing events (pruned by retention) are absent from the map; consumers
+/// fall back to <c>EventId.Value</c>.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record BacktestResult(
+    decimal StartingBankroll,
+    decimal FinalBankroll,
+    decimal NetProfit,
+    decimal? RoiPercent,
+    decimal TotalStaked,
+    decimal TotalReturned,
+    decimal MaxDrawdown,
+    decimal? MaxDrawdownPercent,
+    int BetsPlaced,
+    int Wins,
+    int Losses,
+    int Skipped,
+    int SkippedByThreshold,
+    int SkippedByDataQuality,
+    int SkippedByBankroll,
+    int MaxWinStreak,
+    int MaxLossStreak,
+    IReadOnlyList<BacktestTrace> Trace,
+    IReadOnlyDictionary<Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId, string> EventTitles);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// One settled simulated bet. Carries enough metadata to surface a
+/// drill-down row and a point on the equity curve.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="AnomalyId">Source anomaly for the link-back affordance.</param>
+/// <param name="EventId">Event being bet on.</param>
+/// <param name="DetectedAt">When the anomaly was originally detected.</param>
+/// <param name="Score">Confidence score of the anomaly.</param>
+/// <param name="Sport">Sport metadata if available — null when the event is missing.</param>
+/// <param name="PostFlipFavourite">Side bet on (the post-suspension favourite).</param>
+/// <param name="TakenRate">Rate at which the simulator "bought" the bet (post-flip rate).</param>
+/// <param name="Stake">Stake sized for this bet.</param>
+/// <param name="WinnerSide">Actual winner of the event.</param>
+/// <param name="IsWin"><c>true</c> if the post-flip favourite was the winner.</param>
+/// <param name="Payout">Gross return — <c>Stake × Rate</c> for a win, 0 for a loss.</param>
+/// <param name="BankrollAfter">Bankroll after this bet settled — equity-curve y-axis.</param>
+public sealed record BacktestTrace(
+    Guid AnomalyId,
+    EventId EventId,
+    DateTimeOffset DetectedAt,
+    decimal Score,
+    SportCode? Sport,
+    Side PostFlipFavourite,
+    decimal TakenRate,
+    decimal Stake,
+    Side WinnerSide,
+    bool IsWin,
+    decimal Payout,
+    decimal BankrollAfter);

src/Marathon.Domain/Backtesting/BacktestSimulator.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,248 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Pure simulator that replays a <see cref="BacktestStrategy"/> over a
+/// chronological list of <see cref="BacktestCandidate"/> rows and returns the
+/// resulting <see cref="BacktestResult"/>. No I/O, no DI — safe to call in
+/// hot loops or property tests.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// Loop body per candidate:
+/// <list type="number">
+///   <item>Skip if <c>Anomaly.Score &lt; strategy.MinScore</c>.</item>
+///   <item>
+///     Skip if the evidence is two-way and the actual winner is <c>Draw</c>:
+///     this mirrors <c>AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator</c> — we refuse to grade
+///     selections that are structurally impossible for the market.
+///   </item>
+///   <item>Compute stake from the chosen <see cref="StakeRule"/>.</item>
+///   <item>Skip when the stake is non-positive (Kelly returned no edge, or bankroll empty).</item>
+///   <item>Settle: payout = stake × rate when the post-flip favourite won, 0 otherwise.</item>
+///   <item>Update bankroll, streaks, and running peak-to-trough drawdown.</item>
+/// </list>
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public static class BacktestSimulator
+{
+    public static BacktestResult Run(
+        BacktestStrategy strategy,
+        IReadOnlyList<BacktestCandidate> candidates,
+        IReadOnlyDictionary<Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId, string>? eventTitles = null)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(strategy);
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(candidates);
+
+        var bankroll = strategy.StartingBankroll;
+        var peakBankroll = bankroll;
+        var maxDrawdown = 0m;
+        decimal? maxDrawdownPct = null;
+
+        var trace = new List<BacktestTrace>();
+        var totalStaked = 0m;
+        var totalReturned = 0m;
+        var wins = 0;
+        var losses = 0;
+        var skippedByThreshold = 0;
+        var skippedByDataQuality = 0;
+        var skippedByBankroll = 0;
+        var currentWinStreak = 0;
+        var currentLossStreak = 0;
+        var maxWinStreak = 0;
+        var maxLossStreak = 0;
+
+        // Process in chronological order so bankroll progression is meaningful.
+        var ordered = candidates
+            .OrderBy(c => c.Anomaly.DetectedAt)
+            .ToList();
+
+        foreach (var candidate in ordered)
+        {
+            if (candidate.Anomaly.Score < strategy.MinScore)
+            {
+                skippedByThreshold++;
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var postFav = candidate.Evidence.PostSuspension.Favourite;
+            var isTwoWay = candidate.Evidence.PreSuspension.PDraw is null
+                        && candidate.Evidence.PostSuspension.PDraw is null;
+
+            if (isTwoWay && candidate.Result.WinnerSide == Side.Draw)
+            {
+                // Data inconsistency — refuse to grade.
+                skippedByDataQuality++;
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var (postRate, postProb) = ExtractPostFlipRateAndProbability(candidate.Evidence, postFav);
+            if (postRate is null || postProb is null)
+            {
+                skippedByDataQuality++;
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var stake = SizeStake(
+                strategy: strategy,
+                bankroll: bankroll,
+                postRate: postRate.Value,
+                postProb: postProb.Value);
+
+            if (stake <= 0m || stake > bankroll)
+            {
+                // Either Kelly returned no edge, or the user is broke. Either way
+                // do not place this bet.
+                skippedByBankroll++;
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var isWin = postFav == candidate.Result.WinnerSide;
+            var payout = isWin ? stake * postRate.Value : 0m;
+
+            bankroll = bankroll - stake + payout;
+            totalStaked += stake;
+            totalReturned += payout;
+
+            if (isWin)
+            {
+                wins++;
+                currentWinStreak++;
+                currentLossStreak = 0;
+                maxWinStreak = Math.Max(maxWinStreak, currentWinStreak);
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                losses++;
+                currentLossStreak++;
+                currentWinStreak = 0;
+                maxLossStreak = Math.Max(maxLossStreak, currentLossStreak);
+            }
+
+            // Drawdown tracking: peak is the running maximum bankroll observed
+            // before the current point; drawdown is peak − current. We update
+            // peak only on new highs so the trough is measured from the right
+            // reference.
+            if (bankroll > peakBankroll)
+            {
+                peakBankroll = bankroll;
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                var dd = peakBankroll - bankroll;
+                if (dd > maxDrawdown)
+                {
+                    maxDrawdown = dd;
+                    maxDrawdownPct = peakBankroll > 0m
+                        ? Math.Round((dd / peakBankroll) * 100m, 2)
+                        : null;
+                }
+            }
+
+            // Round money columns away-from-zero so a -0.005 stake reads as "-0.01"
+            // — the convention every accountant in the world expects.
+            trace.Add(new BacktestTrace(
+                AnomalyId: candidate.Anomaly.Id,
+                EventId: candidate.Anomaly.EventId,
+                DetectedAt: candidate.Anomaly.DetectedAt,
+                Score: candidate.Anomaly.Score,
+                Sport: candidate.Sport,
+                PostFlipFavourite: postFav,
+                TakenRate: postRate.Value,
+                Stake: Math.Round(stake, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+                WinnerSide: candidate.Result.WinnerSide,
+                IsWin: isWin,
+                Payout: Math.Round(payout, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+                BankrollAfter: Math.Round(bankroll, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero)));
+        }
+
+        decimal? roi = totalStaked > 0m
+            ? Math.Round(((bankroll - strategy.StartingBankroll) / totalStaked) * 100m, 2,
+                MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero)
+            : null;
+
+        var totalSkipped = skippedByThreshold + skippedByDataQuality + skippedByBankroll;
+
+        return new BacktestResult(
+            StartingBankroll: strategy.StartingBankroll,
+            FinalBankroll: Math.Round(bankroll, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+            NetProfit: Math.Round(bankroll - strategy.StartingBankroll, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+            RoiPercent: roi,
+            TotalStaked: Math.Round(totalStaked, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+            TotalReturned: Math.Round(totalReturned, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+            MaxDrawdown: Math.Round(maxDrawdown, 2, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero),
+            MaxDrawdownPercent: maxDrawdownPct,
+            BetsPlaced: trace.Count,
+            Wins: wins,
+            Losses: losses,
+            Skipped: totalSkipped,
+            SkippedByThreshold: skippedByThreshold,
+            SkippedByDataQuality: skippedByDataQuality,
+            SkippedByBankroll: skippedByBankroll,
+            MaxWinStreak: maxWinStreak,
+            MaxLossStreak: maxLossStreak,
+            Trace: trace,
+            EventTitles: eventTitles
+                ?? new Dictionary<Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId, string>());
+    }
+
+    // ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    private static (decimal? Rate, decimal? Probability) ExtractPostFlipRateAndProbability(
+        AnomalyDetection.AnomalyEvidenceData evidence,
+        Side favourite)
+    {
+        var post = evidence.PostSuspension;
+        return favourite switch
+        {
+            Side.Side1 => (post.Rate1, post.P1),
+            Side.Side2 => (post.Rate2, post.P2),
+            Side.Draw => (post.RateDraw, post.PDraw),
+            _ => (null, null),
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static decimal SizeStake(
+        BacktestStrategy strategy,
+        decimal bankroll,
+        decimal postRate,
+        decimal postProb)
+    {
+        if (bankroll <= 0m) return 0m;
+
+        return strategy.StakeRule switch
+        {
+            StakeRule.Flat => strategy.FlatStake,
+            StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll => bankroll * strategy.PercentOfBankroll,
+            StakeRule.Kelly => ComputeKellyStake(
+                bankroll: bankroll,
+                postRate: postRate,
+                postProb: postProb,
+                fraction: strategy.KellyFraction),
+            _ => 0m,
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static decimal ComputeKellyStake(
+        decimal bankroll,
+        decimal postRate,
+        decimal postProb,
+        decimal fraction)
+    {
+        // Kelly: f* = (b·p − q) / b where b = rate − 1, p = win prob, q = 1 − p.
+        // Skip non-positive edge (no bet rather than betting "negative size").
+        var b = postRate - 1m;
+        if (b <= 0m) return 0m;
+
+        var p = postProb;
+        var q = 1m - p;
+        var fullKelly = ((b * p) - q) / b;
+
+        if (fullKelly <= 0m) return 0m;
+
+        // Quarter / half / etc.-Kelly: scale full edge by the configured fraction.
+        var stakeFraction = fullKelly * fraction;
+        return bankroll * stakeFraction;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Backtesting/BacktestStrategy.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Parameters fed to <see cref="BacktestSimulator"/>. The strategy is "for every
+/// SuspensionFlip anomaly with score ≥ <see cref="MinScore"/>, stake
+/// according to <see cref="StakeRule"/> on the post-flip favourite at the
+/// post-flip rate, then settle against the actual <c>EventResult</c>."
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="StartingBankroll">
+/// Initial bankroll for compounding stake rules. Must be positive.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="MinScore">
+/// Lower bound on <c>Anomaly.Score</c> — only anomalies at or above this
+/// threshold are bet on. Must be in [0, 1].
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="StakeRule">How to size each bet — see the enum docs.</param>
+/// <param name="FlatStake">
+/// Used when <see cref="StakeRule"/> is <see cref="Backtesting.StakeRule.Flat"/>.
+/// Must be positive.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="PercentOfBankroll">
+/// Used when <see cref="StakeRule"/> is
+/// <see cref="Backtesting.StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll"/>. Expressed as a
+/// fraction in (0, 1]. e.g. 0.02 = 2 % of bankroll.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="KellyFraction">
+/// Used when <see cref="StakeRule"/> is <see cref="Backtesting.StakeRule.Kelly"/>.
+/// Multiplier on the raw Kelly fraction; in (0, 1]. 0.25 (quarter-Kelly) is
+/// the conservative default.
+/// </param>
+public sealed record BacktestStrategy(
+    decimal StartingBankroll,
+    decimal MinScore,
+    StakeRule StakeRule,
+    decimal FlatStake,
+    decimal PercentOfBankroll,
+    decimal KellyFraction)
+{
+    public decimal StartingBankroll { get; } = StartingBankroll > 0m
+        ? StartingBankroll
+        : throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(StartingBankroll),
+            StartingBankroll, "StartingBankroll must be positive.");
+
+    public decimal MinScore { get; } = MinScore is >= 0m and <= 1m
+        ? MinScore
+        : throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(MinScore),
+            MinScore, "MinScore must be in [0, 1].");
+
+    public decimal FlatStake { get; } = FlatStake > 0m
+        ? FlatStake
+        : throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(FlatStake),
+            FlatStake, "FlatStake must be positive.");
+
+    public decimal PercentOfBankroll { get; } = PercentOfBankroll is > 0m and <= 1m
+        ? PercentOfBankroll
+        : throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(PercentOfBankroll),
+            PercentOfBankroll, "PercentOfBankroll must be in (0, 1].");
+
+    public decimal KellyFraction { get; } = KellyFraction is > 0m and <= 1m
+        ? KellyFraction
+        : throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(KellyFraction),
+            KellyFraction, "KellyFraction must be in (0, 1].");
+
+    /// <summary>Sensible defaults — flat-stake, score ≥ 0.45, ¼-Kelly waiting in the wings.</summary>
+    public static BacktestStrategy Default { get; } = new(
+        StartingBankroll: 1000m,
+        MinScore: 0.45m,
+        StakeRule: StakeRule.Flat,
+        FlatStake: 50m,
+        PercentOfBankroll: 0.02m,
+        KellyFraction: 0.25m);
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Backtesting/StakeRule.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// How the simulator decides how much to stake on each bet during a backtest.
+/// </summary>
+public enum StakeRule
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Same fixed amount every bet, independent of bankroll.
+    /// Suitable for "flat-betting" historical analysis — the simplest baseline.
+    /// </summary>
+    Flat,
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// A fixed percentage of the current bankroll every bet. Compounds: a
+    /// winning streak grows stake size; losses shrink it. Equivalent to
+    /// proportional betting.
+    /// </summary>
+    PercentOfBankroll,
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Fractional Kelly using the post-flip implied probability as the edge
+    /// estimate: <c>f = ((b·p) − q) / b</c>, scaled by the configured
+    /// <see cref="BacktestStrategy.KellyFraction"/>. Negative-expectation bets
+    /// stake zero (and are skipped). Half/quarter-Kelly is the usual practice.
+    /// </summary>
+    Kelly,
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Betting/BetOutcomeResolver.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Betting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Pure function that grades a <see cref="Bet"/> selection against a final
+/// <see cref="EventResult"/>. Used by the bet-journal resolver to auto-settle
+/// pending wagers the moment a result lands.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// Grading rules:
+/// <list type="bullet">
+///   <item><c>Win</c> (Side1/Side2): selection wins iff <c>WinnerSide</c> matches the side.</item>
+///   <item><c>Draw</c>: wins iff <c>WinnerSide == Draw</c>.</item>
+///   <item><c>WinFora</c> with handicap <c>h</c> on side S: adjusted S-score
+///     = <c>S.Score + h</c>. Wins when adjusted > opponent, voids on tie, loses otherwise.</item>
+///   <item><c>Total</c> with threshold <c>t</c>: combined = <c>Side1Score + Side2Score</c>.
+///     <c>More</c> wins when combined > t, voids on equal, loses when less.
+///     <c>Less</c> is the mirror image.</item>
+/// </list>
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Returns <c>null</c> when the bet cannot be graded against this result —
+/// today only period-scope selections, because <see cref="EventResult"/> stores
+/// the full-time score only. Callers must leave such bets in
+/// <see cref="BetOutcome.Pending"/> for manual settlement.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public static class BetOutcomeResolver
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Grades <paramref name="selection"/> against <paramref name="result"/>.
+    /// Returns the resulting <see cref="BetOutcome"/> or <c>null</c> if the
+    /// bet shape cannot be auto-resolved from the available result data.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static BetOutcome? Resolve(Bet selection, EventResult result)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(selection);
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(result);
+
+        // Period-scope bets need per-period scores which EventResult does not
+        // carry today — leave for manual grading.
+        if (selection.Scope is not MatchScope)
+            return null;
+
+        return selection.Type switch
+        {
+            BetType.Win => ResolveWin(selection.Side, result),
+            BetType.Draw => ResolveDraw(result),
+            BetType.WinFora => ResolveFora(selection.Side, selection.Value!.Value, result),
+            BetType.Total => ResolveTotal(selection.Side, selection.Value!.Value, result),
+            _ => null,
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static BetOutcome ResolveWin(Side side, EventResult result) =>
+        result.WinnerSide == side ? BetOutcome.Won : BetOutcome.Lost;
+
+    private static BetOutcome ResolveDraw(EventResult result) =>
+        result.WinnerSide == Side.Draw ? BetOutcome.Won : BetOutcome.Lost;
+
+    private static BetOutcome ResolveFora(Side side, decimal handicap, EventResult result)
+    {
+        // Adjusted score for the side that took the handicap.
+        var (own, opponent) = side == Side.Side1
+            ? (result.Side1Score, result.Side2Score)
+            : (result.Side2Score, result.Side1Score);
+
+        var adjusted = own + handicap;
+
+        if (adjusted > opponent) return BetOutcome.Won;
+        if (adjusted == opponent) return BetOutcome.Void;
+        return BetOutcome.Lost;
+    }
+
+    private static BetOutcome ResolveTotal(Side side, decimal threshold, EventResult result)
+    {
+        var total = (decimal)(result.Side1Score + result.Side2Score);
+
+        // More wins when total > threshold; Less wins when total < threshold.
+        // Equality is a push (Void) for both sides.
+        if (total == threshold) return BetOutcome.Void;
+
+        var totalIsOver = total > threshold;
+        return side switch
+        {
+            Side.More => totalIsOver ? BetOutcome.Won : BetOutcome.Lost,
+            Side.Less => totalIsOver ? BetOutcome.Lost : BetOutcome.Won,
+            _ => BetOutcome.Lost, // Defensive — Bet invariant rejects other sides for Total.
+        };
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Betting/KellyCalculator.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Betting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Pure fractional-Kelly stake sizing for a single back bet at decimal odds.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// The Kelly criterion maximises the long-run growth rate of a bankroll by staking
+/// a fraction of it proportional to the edge. For decimal odds <c>o</c> and an
+/// estimated win probability <c>p</c>, the full-Kelly fraction of bankroll is:
+/// </para>
+/// <code>f* = (p·o − 1) / (o − 1)</code>
+/// <para>
+/// When <c>f*</c> is zero or negative there is no positive expected value, and the
+/// suggested stake is <c>0</c> — the calculator never recommends betting into a
+/// negative-EV price. Most disciplined bettors stake a <i>fraction</i> of full
+/// Kelly (e.g. quarter-Kelly, <c>fraction = 0.25</c>) to cut variance and blunt the
+/// impact of probability-estimation error; full Kelly is famously over-aggressive
+/// once <c>p</c> is even slightly wrong.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// The win probability is an input the bettor supplies — it is intentionally NOT
+/// derived from an anomaly score here, so the calculator stays a pure, reusable
+/// money-management primitive independent of any signal source.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+public static class KellyCalculator
+{
+    /// <summary>Default Kelly fraction: quarter-Kelly — the conventional variance-safe choice.</summary>
+    public const decimal DefaultFraction = 0.25m;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Full-Kelly fraction of bankroll <c>(p·o − 1)/(o − 1)</c>. May be negative or
+    /// zero, signalling no positive edge. Exposed for callers that want the raw
+    /// figure (e.g. to display the edge) rather than a clamped stake.
+    /// </summary>
+    /// <param name="winProbability">Estimated win probability in the closed interval [0, 1].</param>
+    /// <param name="decimalOdds">Decimal odds, strictly greater than 1.0.</param>
+    public static decimal FullKellyFraction(decimal winProbability, decimal decimalOdds)
+    {
+        if (winProbability is < 0m or > 1m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(winProbability), winProbability, "Must be in [0, 1].");
+        if (decimalOdds <= 1m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(decimalOdds), decimalOdds, "Decimal odds must be greater than 1.0.");
+
+        return (winProbability * decimalOdds - 1m) / (decimalOdds - 1m);
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Suggested stake using fractional Kelly, rounded down to two decimals so the
+    /// suggestion is never larger than the theoretical figure. Returns <c>0</c> when
+    /// there is no positive edge.
+    /// </summary>
+    /// <param name="winProbability">Estimated win probability in the open interval (0, 1).</param>
+    /// <param name="decimalOdds">Decimal odds, strictly greater than 1.0.</param>
+    /// <param name="bankroll">Total bankroll; must be non-negative.</param>
+    /// <param name="fraction">Kelly fraction in (0, 1]; defaults to <see cref="DefaultFraction"/>.</param>
+    public static decimal SuggestStake(
+        decimal winProbability,
+        decimal decimalOdds,
+        decimal bankroll,
+        decimal fraction = DefaultFraction)
+    {
+        if (winProbability is <= 0m or >= 1m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(winProbability), winProbability, "Must be in the open interval (0, 1).");
+        if (bankroll < 0m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(bankroll), bankroll, "Must be non-negative.");
+        if (fraction is <= 0m or > 1m)
+            throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(fraction), fraction, "Kelly fraction must be in (0, 1].");
+
+        // FullKellyFraction validates decimalOdds.
+        var full = FullKellyFraction(winProbability, decimalOdds);
+        if (full <= 0m)
+            return 0m;
+
+        var stake = fraction * full * bankroll;
+
+        // Truncate (floor toward zero) to two decimals so a stake suggestion never
+        // exceeds the computed figure — a conservative bias for real-money sizing.
+        return Math.Truncate(stake * 100m) / 100m;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Entities/Event.cs

@@ -63,4 +63,11 @@ public sealed record Event(
     /// numeric event ID.
     /// </remarks>
     public string? EventPath { get; init; }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Display title in the canonical "{Side1Name} vs {Side2Name}" form. Single
+    /// source for the home-vs-away join that was previously duplicated across the
+    /// report use cases and list/feed services.
+    /// </summary>
+    public string Title => $"{Side1Name} vs {Side2Name}";
 }

src/Marathon.Domain/Entities/PlacedBet.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// A wager the user manually recorded as having placed (with this or another
+/// bookmaker). Reuses the <see cref="Bet"/> vocabulary so the journal can mirror
+/// scraped markets directly — same Scope / Type / Side / Value / Rate invariants
+/// apply to <see cref="Selection"/>.
+/// </summary>
+/// <param name="Id">Stable identifier — Guid so duplicates can be detected by the UI.</param>
+/// <param name="EventId">Event the wager is on.</param>
+/// <param name="Selection">
+/// The market + rate the user took. <c>Selection.Rate</c> is the "taken rate"
+/// used for ROI and CLV calculations.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="Stake">
+/// Money risked, in the user's currency. The domain does not encode currency —
+/// stake values are compared as raw decimals.
+/// </param>
+/// <param name="PlacedAt">When the bet was recorded. Stored as Moscow time.</param>
+/// <param name="Outcome">Current settlement state — see <see cref="BetOutcome"/>.</param>
+/// <param name="Notes">Optional free text — strategy tag, source, etc.</param>
+public sealed record PlacedBet(
+    Guid Id,
+    EventId EventId,
+    Bet Selection,
+    decimal Stake,
+    DateTimeOffset PlacedAt,
+    BetOutcome Outcome,
+    string? Notes)
+{
+    public Guid Id { get; } = Id == Guid.Empty
+        ? throw new ArgumentException("PlacedBet Id must not be an empty GUID.", nameof(Id))
+        : Id;
+
+    public EventId EventId { get; } = EventId ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(EventId));
+
+    public Bet Selection { get; } = Selection ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(Selection));
+
+    public decimal Stake { get; } = Stake > 0m
+        ? Stake
+        : throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException(nameof(Stake), Stake,
+            "Stake must be positive.");
+
+    public DateTimeOffset PlacedAt { get; } = PlacedAt.Offset == MoscowTime.Offset
+        ? PlacedAt
+        : throw new ArgumentException(
+            $"PlacedAt must be in Europe/Moscow time (UTC+03:00). " +
+            $"Received offset: {PlacedAt.Offset:hh\\:mm}.",
+            nameof(PlacedAt));
+
+    public BetOutcome Outcome { get; } = Outcome;
+
+    public string? Notes { get; } = string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(Notes) ? null : Notes;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Gross return on this bet for the current outcome — the amount the
+    /// bookmaker pays back to the user (stake + winnings).
+    /// <list type="bullet">
+    ///   <item><see cref="BetOutcome.Won"/>: <c>Stake × Rate</c></item>
+    ///   <item><see cref="BetOutcome.Void"/>: <c>Stake</c> (push — stake returned)</item>
+    ///   <item><see cref="BetOutcome.Lost"/>: <c>0</c></item>
+    ///   <item><see cref="BetOutcome.Pending"/>: <c>null</c> (unknown)</item>
+    /// </list>
+    /// </summary>
+    public decimal? GrossReturn => Outcome switch
+    {
+        BetOutcome.Won => Stake * Selection.Rate.Value,
+        BetOutcome.Void => Stake,
+        BetOutcome.Lost => 0m,
+        _ => null,
+    };
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Net profit for the current outcome — <see cref="GrossReturn"/> minus
+    /// <see cref="Stake"/>. Negative for losses. Null while pending.
+    /// </summary>
+    public decimal? NetProfit => GrossReturn is null ? null : GrossReturn.Value - Stake;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Returns a copy with a new <see cref="Outcome"/> — used by the resolver
+    /// use case after grading the event. Constructs explicitly because the
+    /// manual validating <c>get</c>-only properties prevent <c>with</c>.
+    /// </summary>
+    public PlacedBet WithOutcome(BetOutcome outcome) =>
+        new(Id, EventId, Selection, Stake, PlacedAt, outcome, Notes);
+}

src/Marathon.Domain/Enums/AnomalyKind.cs

@@ -10,4 +10,10 @@ public enum AnomalyKind
     /// Bookmaker suspended the market, then flipped the underdog/favourite coefficients.
     /// </summary>
     SuspensionFlip,
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// A rapid, one-directional drift in a side's implied probability over a short
+    /// continuous window (no suspension) — money moving the line ("steam").
+    /// </summary>
+    SteamMove,
 }

src/Marathon.Domain/Enums/BetOutcome.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Settlement status of a user-tracked <see cref="Marathon.Domain.Entities.PlacedBet"/>.
+/// </summary>
+public enum BetOutcome
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The event has not been graded yet, or the bet has not been auto-resolved
+    /// yet. Default state for a freshly recorded bet.
+    /// </summary>
+    Pending,
+
+    /// <summary>The selection won — stake returned plus winnings.</summary>
+    Won,
+
+    /// <summary>The selection lost — stake is forfeit.</summary>
+    Lost,
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Handicap/total push or event abandoned — stake returned, no profit/loss.
+    /// </summary>
+    Void,
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260516000000_AddPlacedBets.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+using Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Infrastructure;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Migrations;
+
+#nullable disable
+
+namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Migrations;
+
+/// <inheritdoc />
+[DbContext(typeof(MarathonDbContext))]
+[Migration("20260516000000_AddPlacedBets")]
+public partial class AddPlacedBets : Migration
+{
+    /// <inheritdoc />
+    protected override void Up(MigrationBuilder migrationBuilder)
+    {
+        migrationBuilder.CreateTable(
+            name: "PlacedBets",
+            columns: table => new
+            {
+                Id = table.Column<string>(type: "TEXT", nullable: false),
+                EventCode = table.Column<string>(type: "TEXT", nullable: false),
+                Scope = table.Column<int>(type: "INTEGER", nullable: false),
+                PeriodNumber = table.Column<int>(type: "INTEGER", nullable: true),
+                Type = table.Column<int>(type: "INTEGER", nullable: false),
+                Side = table.Column<int>(type: "INTEGER", nullable: false),
+                Value = table.Column<decimal>(type: "TEXT", nullable: true),
+                Rate = table.Column<decimal>(type: "TEXT", nullable: false),
+                Stake = table.Column<decimal>(type: "TEXT", nullable: false),
+                PlacedAt = table.Column<string>(type: "TEXT", nullable: false),
+                Outcome = table.Column<int>(type: "INTEGER", nullable: false),
+                Notes = table.Column<string>(type: "TEXT", nullable: true),
+            },
+            constraints: table =>
+            {
+                table.PrimaryKey("PK_PlacedBets", x => x.Id);
+                // No foreign key to Events — the journal is user data and must
+                // survive snapshot retention pruning the source event row.
+            });
+
+        migrationBuilder.CreateIndex(
+            name: "IX_PlacedBets_EventCode",
+            table: "PlacedBets",
+            column: "EventCode");
+
+        migrationBuilder.CreateIndex(
+            name: "IX_PlacedBets_Outcome",
+            table: "PlacedBets",
+            column: "Outcome");
+    }
+
+    /// <inheritdoc />
+    protected override void Down(MigrationBuilder migrationBuilder)
+    {
+        migrationBuilder.DropTable(name: "PlacedBets");
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260528000000_AddSnapshotCapturedAtIndexes.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+using Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Infrastructure;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Migrations;
+
+#nullable disable
+
+namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Migrations;
+
+/// <inheritdoc />
+[DbContext(typeof(MarathonDbContext))]
+[Migration("20260528000000_AddSnapshotCapturedAtIndexes")]
+public partial class AddSnapshotCapturedAtIndexes : Migration
+{
+    /// <inheritdoc />
+    protected override void Up(MigrationBuilder migrationBuilder)
+    {
+        // Composite index for the dominant read shape: filter by EventCode + a
+        // CapturedAt range, frequently with ORDER BY CapturedAt. Lets SQLite serve
+        // both the predicate and the ordering from the index rather than scanning.
+        migrationBuilder.CreateIndex(
+            name: "IX_Snapshots_EventCode_CapturedAt",
+            table: "Snapshots",
+            columns: new[] { "EventCode", "CapturedAt" });
+
+        // Covers GetLatestPreMatchAsync: EventCode + Source filter, ORDER BY CapturedAt DESC.
+        migrationBuilder.CreateIndex(
+            name: "IX_Snapshots_EventCode_Source_CapturedAt",
+            table: "Snapshots",
+            columns: new[] { "EventCode", "Source", "CapturedAt" });
+    }
+
+    /// <inheritdoc />
+    protected override void Down(MigrationBuilder migrationBuilder)
+    {
+        migrationBuilder.DropIndex(
+            name: "IX_Snapshots_EventCode_Source_CapturedAt",
+            table: "Snapshots");
+
+        migrationBuilder.DropIndex(
+            name: "IX_Snapshots_EventCode_CapturedAt",
+            table: "Snapshots");
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Migrations/MarathonDbContextModelSnapshot.cs

@@ -92,6 +92,8 @@ partial class MarathonDbContextModelSnapshot : ModelSnapshot
             b.Property<int>("Source").HasColumnType("INTEGER");
             b.HasKey("Id");
             b.HasIndex("EventCode").HasDatabaseName("IX_Snapshots_EventCode");
+            b.HasIndex("EventCode", "CapturedAt").HasDatabaseName("IX_Snapshots_EventCode_CapturedAt");
+            b.HasIndex("EventCode", "Source", "CapturedAt").HasDatabaseName("IX_Snapshots_EventCode_Source_CapturedAt");
             b.ToTable("Snapshots");
         });
 
@@ -104,6 +106,26 @@ partial class MarathonDbContextModelSnapshot : ModelSnapshot
             b.ToTable("Sports");
         });
 
+        modelBuilder.Entity("Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Entities.PlacedBetEntity", b =>
+        {
+            b.Property<string>("Id").HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.Property<string>("EventCode").IsRequired().HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.Property<int>("Scope").HasColumnType("INTEGER");
+            b.Property<int?>("PeriodNumber").HasColumnType("INTEGER");
+            b.Property<int>("Type").HasColumnType("INTEGER");
+            b.Property<int>("Side").HasColumnType("INTEGER");
+            b.Property<decimal?>("Value").HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.Property<decimal>("Rate").HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.Property<decimal>("Stake").HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.Property<string>("PlacedAt").IsRequired().HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.Property<int>("Outcome").HasColumnType("INTEGER");
+            b.Property<string>("Notes").HasColumnType("TEXT");
+            b.HasKey("Id");
+            b.HasIndex("EventCode").HasDatabaseName("IX_PlacedBets_EventCode");
+            b.HasIndex("Outcome").HasDatabaseName("IX_PlacedBets_Outcome");
+            b.ToTable("PlacedBets");
+        });
+
         modelBuilder.Entity("Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Entities.AnomalyEntity", b =>
         {
             b.HasOne("Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Entities.EventEntity", "Event")

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Configurations/PlacedBetConfiguration.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+using Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Entities;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Metadata.Builders;
+
+namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Configurations;
+
+internal sealed class PlacedBetConfiguration : IEntityTypeConfiguration<PlacedBetEntity>
+{
+    public void Configure(EntityTypeBuilder<PlacedBetEntity> builder)
+    {
+        builder.ToTable("PlacedBets");
+
+        builder.HasKey(b => b.Id);
+        builder.Property(b => b.Id).HasColumnType("TEXT").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.EventCode).HasColumnType("TEXT").IsRequired();
+
+        builder.Property(b => b.Scope).HasColumnType("INTEGER").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.PeriodNumber).HasColumnType("INTEGER");
+        builder.Property(b => b.Type).HasColumnType("INTEGER").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.Side).HasColumnType("INTEGER").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.Value).HasColumnType("TEXT");
+        builder.Property(b => b.Rate).HasColumnType("TEXT").IsRequired();
+
+        builder.Property(b => b.Stake).HasColumnType("TEXT").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.PlacedAt).HasColumnType("TEXT").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.Outcome).HasColumnType("INTEGER").IsRequired();
+        builder.Property(b => b.Notes).HasColumnType("TEXT");
+
+        // EventCode is intentionally NOT a foreign key — the journal is the
+        // user's data and must survive snapshot retention pruning the source
+        // event row. Existence is checked once at insert time by the use case.
+        builder.HasIndex(b => b.EventCode).HasDatabaseName("IX_PlacedBets_EventCode");
+        builder.HasIndex(b => b.Outcome).HasDatabaseName("IX_PlacedBets_Outcome");
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Configurations/SnapshotConfiguration.cs

@@ -18,6 +18,17 @@ internal sealed class SnapshotConfiguration : IEntityTypeConfiguration<SnapshotE
 
         builder.HasIndex(s => s.EventCode).HasDatabaseName("IX_Snapshots_EventCode");
 
+        // Snapshots is the largest table (live cadence 5–10s, 90-day retention) and
+        // every hot read filters EventCode + CapturedAt range, often with an ORDER BY
+        // CapturedAt. These composite indexes let SQLite satisfy the filter and the
+        // ordering from the index instead of scanning + sorting the table.
+        builder.HasIndex(s => new { s.EventCode, s.CapturedAt })
+            .HasDatabaseName("IX_Snapshots_EventCode_CapturedAt");
+
+        // Covers GetLatestPreMatchAsync: EventCode + Source filter, ORDER BY CapturedAt DESC.
+        builder.HasIndex(s => new { s.EventCode, s.Source, s.CapturedAt })
+            .HasDatabaseName("IX_Snapshots_EventCode_Source_CapturedAt");
+
         builder.HasMany(s => s.Bets)
             .WithOne(b => b.Snapshot)
             .HasForeignKey(b => b.SnapshotId)

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Entities/PlacedBetEntity.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// EF Core persistence entity for a user-tracked <see cref="Marathon.Domain.Entities.PlacedBet"/>.
+/// Flattens the embedded <c>Bet</c> selection (Scope / Type / Side / Value / Rate)
+/// into columns so SQLite can index by event and outcome cheaply.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class PlacedBetEntity
+{
+    /// <summary>GUID primary key stored as TEXT.</summary>
+    public string Id { get; set; } = default!;
+
+    /// <summary>Foreign key to <see cref="EventEntity.EventCode"/>.</summary>
+    public string EventCode { get; set; } = default!;
+
+    // ─── Embedded Bet selection ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+    /// <summary>Scope discriminator: 0 = Match, 1 = Period.</summary>
+    public int Scope { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Period number when <see cref="Scope"/> = 1; null otherwise.</summary>
+    public int? PeriodNumber { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>BetType as int (Win / Draw / WinFora / Total).</summary>
+    public int Type { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Side as int (Side1 / Side2 / Draw / Less / More).</summary>
+    public int Side { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Handicap or total threshold; null for Win / Draw markets.</summary>
+    public decimal? Value { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Decimal odds the user took.</summary>
+    public decimal Rate { get; set; }
+
+    // ─── Wager fields ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    /// <summary>Stake in the user's currency.</summary>
+    public decimal Stake { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>ISO 8601 timestamp when the bet was recorded (Moscow time).</summary>
+    public string PlacedAt { get; set; } = default!;
+
+    /// <summary>BetOutcome as int (Pending / Won / Lost / Void).</summary>
+    public int Outcome { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Optional free-text note from the user.</summary>
+    public string? Notes { get; set; }
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Mapping.cs

@@ -1,4 +1,3 @@
-using System.Globalization;
 using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
 using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
 using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
@@ -10,16 +9,15 @@ namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence;
 /// Mapping helpers that translate between domain objects and EF Core persistence entities.
 /// Domain invariants are enforced on the domain side; mapping is purely structural.
 /// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// ScheduledAt / CapturedAt / DetectedAt / CompletedAt / PlacedAt are encoded and
+/// decoded exclusively through <see cref="SqliteDateText"/> so the write format and
+/// the repositories' range-predicate format can never drift apart.
+/// </remarks>
 internal static class Mapping
 {
-    // ScheduledAt / CapturedAt / DetectedAt / CompletedAt are written via
-    // DateTimeOffset.ToString("O") — round-trip ISO 8601. Parse with the
-    // invariant culture and RoundtripKind so a non-en-US thread culture
-    // (or a future locale change) cannot corrupt the round-trip.
-    private const DateTimeStyles RoundtripStyles = DateTimeStyles.RoundtripKind;
-
     // ─── Bet scope discriminator constants ────────────────────────────────────
-    private const int ScopeMatch  = 0;
+    private const int ScopeMatch = 0;
     private const int ScopePeriod = 1;
     // ─── Event ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
@@ -31,7 +29,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
             CountryCode = domain.CountryCode,
             LeagueId = domain.LeagueId,
             Category = domain.Category,
-            ScheduledAt = domain.ScheduledAt.ToString("O"),
+            ScheduledAt = SqliteDateText.Key(domain.ScheduledAt),
             Side1Name = domain.Side1Name,
             Side2Name = domain.Side2Name,
             EventPath = domain.EventPath,
@@ -44,7 +42,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
             CountryCode: entity.CountryCode,
             LeagueId: entity.LeagueId,
             Category: entity.Category,
-            ScheduledAt: DateTimeOffset.Parse(entity.ScheduledAt, CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, RoundtripStyles),
+            ScheduledAt: SqliteDateText.Parse(entity.ScheduledAt),
             Side1Name: entity.Side1Name,
             Side2Name: entity.Side2Name)
         {
@@ -57,7 +55,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
         new()
         {
             EventCode = domain.EventId.Value,
-            CapturedAt = domain.CapturedAt.ToString("O"),
+            CapturedAt = SqliteDateText.Key(domain.CapturedAt),
             Source = (int)domain.Source,
             Bets = domain.Bets.Select(ToEntity).ToList(),
         };
@@ -65,7 +63,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
     public static OddsSnapshot ToDomain(SnapshotEntity entity) =>
         new(
             eventId: new EventId(entity.EventCode),
-            capturedAt: DateTimeOffset.Parse(entity.CapturedAt, CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, RoundtripStyles),
+            capturedAt: SqliteDateText.Parse(entity.CapturedAt),
             source: (OddsSource)entity.Source,
             bets: entity.Bets.Select(ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly());
 
@@ -86,7 +84,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
     {
         var scope = entity.Scope switch
         {
-            ScopeMatch  => (BetScope)MatchScope.Instance,
+            ScopeMatch => (BetScope)MatchScope.Instance,
             ScopePeriod => new PeriodScope(entity.PeriodNumber!.Value),
             _ => throw new InvalidOperationException(
                 $"Unknown BetScope discriminator: {entity.Scope}"),
@@ -109,7 +107,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
             Side1Score = domain.Side1Score,
             Side2Score = domain.Side2Score,
             WinnerSide = (int)domain.WinnerSide,
-            CompletedAt = domain.CompletedAt.ToString("O"),
+            CompletedAt = SqliteDateText.Key(domain.CompletedAt),
         };
 
     public static EventResult ToDomain(EventResultEntity entity) =>
@@ -118,7 +116,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
             Side1Score: entity.Side1Score,
             Side2Score: entity.Side2Score,
             WinnerSide: (Side)entity.WinnerSide,
-            CompletedAt: DateTimeOffset.Parse(entity.CompletedAt, CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, RoundtripStyles));
+            CompletedAt: SqliteDateText.Parse(entity.CompletedAt));
 
     // ─── Anomaly ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
@@ -127,7 +125,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
         {
             Id = domain.Id.ToString(),
             EventCode = domain.EventId.Value,
-            DetectedAt = domain.DetectedAt.ToString("O"),
+            DetectedAt = SqliteDateText.Key(domain.DetectedAt),
             Kind = (int)domain.Kind,
             Score = domain.Score,
             EvidenceJson = domain.EvidenceJson,
@@ -137,7 +135,7 @@ internal static class Mapping
         new(
             Id: Guid.Parse(entity.Id),
             EventId: new EventId(entity.EventCode),
-            DetectedAt: DateTimeOffset.Parse(entity.DetectedAt, CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, RoundtripStyles),
+            DetectedAt: SqliteDateText.Parse(entity.DetectedAt),
             Kind: (AnomalyKind)entity.Kind,
             Score: entity.Score,
             EvidenceJson: entity.EvidenceJson);
@@ -158,6 +156,51 @@ internal static class Mapping
             NameRu: entity.NameRu,
             NameEn: entity.NameEn);
 
+    // ─── PlacedBet ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    public static PlacedBetEntity ToEntity(PlacedBet domain) =>
+        new()
+        {
+            Id = domain.Id.ToString(),
+            EventCode = domain.EventId.Value,
+            Scope = domain.Selection.Scope is MatchScope ? ScopeMatch : ScopePeriod,
+            PeriodNumber = domain.Selection.Scope is PeriodScope ps ? ps.Number : null,
+            Type = (int)domain.Selection.Type,
+            Side = (int)domain.Selection.Side,
+            Value = domain.Selection.Value?.Value,
+            Rate = domain.Selection.Rate.Value,
+            Stake = domain.Stake,
+            PlacedAt = SqliteDateText.Key(domain.PlacedAt),
+            Outcome = (int)domain.Outcome,
+            Notes = domain.Notes,
+        };
+
+    public static PlacedBet ToDomain(PlacedBetEntity entity)
+    {
+        var scope = entity.Scope switch
+        {
+            ScopeMatch => (BetScope)MatchScope.Instance,
+            ScopePeriod => new PeriodScope(entity.PeriodNumber!.Value),
+            _ => throw new InvalidOperationException(
+                $"Unknown BetScope discriminator: {entity.Scope}"),
+        };
+
+        var value = entity.Value.HasValue ? new OddsValue(entity.Value.Value) : null;
+        var rate = new OddsRate(entity.Rate);
+        var type = (BetType)entity.Type;
+        var side = (Side)entity.Side;
+        var selection = new Bet(scope, type, side, value, rate);
+
+        return new PlacedBet(
+            Id: Guid.Parse(entity.Id),
+            EventId: new EventId(entity.EventCode),
+            Selection: selection,
+            Stake: entity.Stake,
+            PlacedAt: SqliteDateText.Parse(entity.PlacedAt),
+            Outcome: (BetOutcome)entity.Outcome,
+            Notes: entity.Notes);
+    }
+
     // ─── League ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
     public static LeagueEntity ToEntity(League domain) =>

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/MarathonDbContext.cs

@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ public sealed class MarathonDbContext : DbContext
     public DbSet<AnomalyEntity> Anomalies => Set<AnomalyEntity>();
     public DbSet<SportEntity> Sports => Set<SportEntity>();
     public DbSet<LeagueEntity> Leagues => Set<LeagueEntity>();
+    public DbSet<PlacedBetEntity> PlacedBets => Set<PlacedBetEntity>();
 
     protected override void OnModelCreating(ModelBuilder modelBuilder)
     {

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/PersistenceModule.cs

@@ -53,6 +53,7 @@ public static class PersistenceModule
         services.AddScoped<ISnapshotRepository, SnapshotRepository>();
         services.AddScoped<IResultRepository, ResultRepository>();
         services.AddScoped<IAnomalyRepository, AnomalyRepository>();
+        services.AddScoped<IPlacedBetRepository, PlacedBetRepository>();
         services.AddScoped<IExcelExporter, ExcelExporter>();
 
         return services;

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Repositories/AnomalyRepository.cs

@@ -23,6 +23,44 @@ internal sealed class AnomalyRepository : IAnomalyRepository
         return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
     }
 
+    public async Task<int> CountSinceAsync(DateTimeOffset since, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        // Server-side COUNT(*) — the unread-badge hot path must not materialise the
+        // whole table (with EvidenceJson) just to count. DetectedAt is stored as the
+        // O-format TEXT key (see SqliteDateText); ">" matches the prior in-memory
+        // GetUnreadCountAsync semantics (strictly newer than the last-seen marker).
+        var sinceStr = SqliteDateText.Key(since);
+        return await _db.Anomalies.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(a => a.DetectedAt.CompareTo(sinceStr) > 0)
+            .CountAsync(ct);
+    }
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<Anomaly>> ListByDateRangeAsync(
+        DateTimeOffset? from,
+        DateTimeOffset? to,
+        CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var q = _db.Anomalies.AsNoTracking();
+
+        if (from is { } f)
+        {
+            var fromStr = SqliteDateText.Key(f);
+            q = q.Where(a => a.DetectedAt.CompareTo(fromStr) >= 0);
+        }
+
+        if (to is { } t)
+        {
+            var toStr = SqliteDateText.Key(t);
+            q = q.Where(a => a.DetectedAt.CompareTo(toStr) <= 0);
+        }
+
+        var entities = await q
+            .OrderByDescending(a => a.DetectedAt)
+            .ToListAsync(ct);
+
+        return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
+    }
+
     public async Task AddAsync(Anomaly entity, CancellationToken ct = default)
     {
         var efEntity = Mapping.ToEntity(entity);

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Repositories/EventRepository.cs

@@ -26,9 +26,10 @@ internal sealed class EventRepository : IEventRepository
 
     public async Task<IReadOnlyList<Event>> ListByDateRangeAsync(DateRange range, CancellationToken ct = default)
     {
-        // ScheduledAt is stored as ISO 8601 TEXT; SQLite TEXT comparison sorts correctly for ISO 8601.
-        var fromStr = range.From.ToString("O");
-        var toStr = range.To.ToString("O");
+        // ScheduledAt is stored as ISO 8601 TEXT (see SqliteDateText); SQLite TEXT
+        // comparison sorts chronologically for the fixed-offset O format.
+        var fromStr = SqliteDateText.Key(range.From);
+        var toStr = SqliteDateText.Key(range.To);
 
         // EF Core SQLite cannot translate string.Compare(...) with StringComparison; it can
         // translate the relational operators on string columns (which use BINARY/ordinal
@@ -41,6 +42,57 @@ internal sealed class EventRepository : IEventRepository
         return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
     }
 
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<Event>> QueryAsync(EventQuery query, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(query);
+
+        var fromStr = SqliteDateText.Key(query.Dates.From);
+        var toStr = SqliteDateText.Key(query.Dates.To);
+
+        // Date range + sport filter pushed to SQL so a multi-sport page no longer
+        // materialises every event in the window. The composite
+        // IX_Events_SportCode_ScheduledAt index covers this predicate. Case-sensitive
+        // search / country filtering and locale-aware sorting stay in the service
+        // layer where Cyrillic ordinal semantics are preserved.
+        var q = _db.Events.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(e => e.ScheduledAt.CompareTo(fromStr) >= 0
+                     && e.ScheduledAt.CompareTo(toStr) <= 0);
+
+        if (query.SportCodes is { Count: > 0 } sports)
+        {
+            var sportArray = sports.Distinct().ToArray();
+            q = q.Where(e => sportArray.Contains(e.SportCode));
+        }
+
+        var entities = await q.ToListAsync(ct);
+        return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
+    }
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyDictionary<EventId, Event>> GetManyAsync(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<EventId> ids,
+        CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(ids);
+
+        var result = new Dictionary<EventId, Event>(ids.Count);
+        if (ids.Count == 0)
+            return result;
+
+        var codes = ids.Select(e => e.Value).Distinct().ToArray();
+
+        var entities = await _db.Events.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(e => codes.Contains(e.EventCode))
+            .ToListAsync(ct);
+
+        foreach (var entity in entities)
+        {
+            var domain = Mapping.ToDomain(entity);
+            result[domain.Id] = domain;
+        }
+
+        return result;
+    }
+
     public async Task<IReadOnlyList<Event>> ListBySportAsync(SportCode sport, CancellationToken ct = default)
     {
         var entities = await _db.Events.AsNoTracking()
@@ -50,6 +102,9 @@ internal sealed class EventRepository : IEventRepository
         return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
     }
 
+    public Task<int> CountAsync(CancellationToken ct = default) =>
+        _db.Events.AsNoTracking().CountAsync(ct);
+
     public async Task<IReadOnlyList<int>> ListDistinctSportCodesAsync(CancellationToken ct = default)
     {
         var codes = await _db.Events.AsNoTracking()

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Repositories/PlacedBetRepository.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Storage;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore;
+
+namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence.Repositories;
+
+internal sealed class PlacedBetRepository : IPlacedBetRepository
+{
+    private readonly MarathonDbContext _db;
+
+    public PlacedBetRepository(MarathonDbContext db) => _db = db;
+
+    public async Task<PlacedBet?> GetAsync(Guid key, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var idStr = key.ToString();
+        // AsNoTracking so callers can re-map and UpdateAsync without tripping
+        // EF's "another instance with the same key is already tracked" guard.
+        var entity = await _db.PlacedBets.AsNoTracking()
+            .FirstOrDefaultAsync(b => b.Id == idStr, ct);
+        return entity is null ? null : Mapping.ToDomain(entity);
+    }
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListAsync(CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var entities = await _db.PlacedBets.AsNoTracking().ToListAsync(ct);
+        return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
+    }
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome outcome, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var outcomeInt = (int)outcome;
+        var entities = await _db.PlacedBets.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(b => b.Outcome == outcomeInt)
+            .ToListAsync(ct);
+        return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
+    }
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListByDateRangeAsync(DateRange range, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        // PlacedAt is stored as ISO 8601 TEXT — same lexical-equals-chronological ordering
+        // trick used in EventRepository.ListByDateRangeAsync.
+        var fromStr = range.From.ToString("O");
+        var toStr = range.To.ToString("O");
+
+        var entities = await _db.PlacedBets.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(b => b.PlacedAt.CompareTo(fromStr) >= 0
+                     && b.PlacedAt.CompareTo(toStr) <= 0)
+            .ToListAsync(ct);
+
+        return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
+    }
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<PlacedBet>> ListByEventAsync(EventId eventId, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var entities = await _db.PlacedBets.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(b => b.EventCode == eventId.Value)
+            .ToListAsync(ct);
+        return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
+    }
+
+    public async Task AddAsync(PlacedBet entity, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var efEntity = Mapping.ToEntity(entity);
+        await _db.PlacedBets.AddAsync(efEntity, ct);
+    }
+
+    public Task UpdateAsync(PlacedBet entity, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var efEntity = Mapping.ToEntity(entity);
+        _db.PlacedBets.Update(efEntity);
+        return Task.CompletedTask;
+    }
+
+    public async Task DeleteAsync(Guid key, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var idStr = key.ToString();
+        var entity = await _db.PlacedBets.FirstOrDefaultAsync(b => b.Id == idStr, ct);
+        if (entity is not null)
+            _db.PlacedBets.Remove(entity);
+    }
+
+    public async Task SaveChangesAsync(CancellationToken ct = default) =>
+        await _db.SaveChangesAsync(ct);
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Repositories/ResultRepository.cs

@@ -23,6 +23,31 @@ internal sealed class ResultRepository : IResultRepository
         return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
     }
 
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyDictionary<EventId, EventResult>> GetManyAsync(
+        IReadOnlyCollection<EventId> ids,
+        CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(ids);
+
+        var result = new Dictionary<EventId, EventResult>(ids.Count);
+        if (ids.Count == 0)
+            return result;
+
+        var codes = ids.Select(e => e.Value).Distinct().ToArray();
+
+        var entities = await _db.EventResults.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(r => codes.Contains(r.EventCode))
+            .ToListAsync(ct);
+
+        foreach (var entity in entities)
+        {
+            var domain = Mapping.ToDomain(entity);
+            result[domain.EventId] = domain;
+        }
+
+        return result;
+    }
+
     public async Task AddAsync(EventResult entity, CancellationToken ct = default)
     {
         var efEntity = Mapping.ToEntity(entity);

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/Repositories/SnapshotRepository.cs

@@ -19,14 +19,22 @@ internal sealed class SnapshotRepository : ISnapshotRepository
         return entities.Select(Mapping.ToDomain).ToList().AsReadOnly();
     }
 
+    public Task<int> CountSinceAsync(DateTimeOffset since, CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        var sinceStr = SqliteDateText.Key(since);
+        return _db.Snapshots.AsNoTracking()
+            .Where(s => s.CapturedAt.CompareTo(sinceStr) >= 0)
+            .CountAsync(ct);
+    }
+
     public async Task<IReadOnlyList<OddsSnapshot>> ListByEventAsync(
         EventId eventId,
         DateTimeOffset from,
         DateTimeOffset to,
         CancellationToken ct = default)
     {
-        var fromStr = from.ToString("O");
-        var toStr = to.ToString("O");
+        var fromStr = SqliteDateText.Key(from);
+        var toStr = SqliteDateText.Key(to);
 
         var entities = await _db.Snapshots.AsNoTracking()
             .Include(s => s.Bets)
@@ -51,8 +59,8 @@ internal sealed class SnapshotRepository : ISnapshotRepository
             return result;
 
         var ids = eventIds.Select(e => e.Value).Distinct().ToArray();
-        var fromStr = from.ToString("O");
-        var toStr = to.ToString("O");
+        var fromStr = SqliteDateText.Key(from);
+        var toStr = SqliteDateText.Key(to);
 
         var entities = await _db.Snapshots.AsNoTracking()
             .Include(s => s.Bets)
@@ -83,4 +91,26 @@ internal sealed class SnapshotRepository : ISnapshotRepository
 
     public async Task SaveChangesAsync(CancellationToken ct = default) =>
         await _db.SaveChangesAsync(ct);
+
+    public async Task<OddsSnapshot?> GetLatestPreMatchAsync(
+        EventId eventId,
+        DateTimeOffset atOrBefore,
+        CancellationToken ct = default)
+    {
+        // OddsSource enum: PreMatch == 0. Inlined as an int constant to keep the
+        // expression EF-translatable (the IL would otherwise carry a cast).
+        const int preMatchSource = (int)Marathon.Domain.Enums.OddsSource.PreMatch;
+
+        var toStr = SqliteDateText.Key(atOrBefore);
+
+        var entity = await _db.Snapshots.AsNoTracking()
+            .Include(s => s.Bets)
+            .Where(s => s.EventCode == eventId.Value
+                     && s.Source == preMatchSource
+                     && s.CapturedAt.CompareTo(toStr) <= 0)
+            .OrderByDescending(s => s.CapturedAt)
+            .FirstOrDefaultAsync(ct);
+
+        return entity is null ? null : Mapping.ToDomain(entity);
+    }
 }

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Persistence/SqliteDateText.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+using System.Globalization;
+
+namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Persistence;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Single source of truth for how <see cref="DateTimeOffset"/> values are encoded
+/// as the TEXT used by both the write path (<see cref="Mapping"/>) and the
+/// date-range predicates / ORDER BY clauses in the repositories.
+/// </summary>
+/// <remarks>
+/// <para>
+/// Dates are stored as round-trip ISO-8601 (<c>"O"</c> format) TEXT. SQLite TEXT
+/// columns use BINARY (ordinal) collation by default, so the relational operators
+/// (<c>&gt;=</c>, <c>&lt;=</c>) and <c>ORDER BY</c> on these strings sort
+/// <b>chronologically</b> — but ONLY because every persisted timestamp carries the
+/// same Moscow <c>+03:00</c> offset (see the project invariant in CLAUDE.md). Two
+/// instants written with different offsets would sort lexically, not
+/// chronologically, and silently corrupt range filtering.
+/// </para>
+/// <para>
+/// Centralising the format here means the write encoding and the query-bound
+/// encoding can never drift apart, and the offset invariant is documented in one
+/// authoritative place. If a future change normalises storage to UTC or a native
+/// DATETIME column, this is the only call site that must change.
+/// </para>
+/// </remarks>
+internal static class SqliteDateText
+{
+    // Parse with the invariant culture + RoundtripKind so a non-en-US thread
+    // culture (or a future locale change) cannot corrupt the round-trip.
+    private const DateTimeStyles RoundtripStyles = DateTimeStyles.RoundtripKind;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Encodes a <see cref="DateTimeOffset"/> as the TEXT key used for storage and
+    /// for the bounds of range/ordering predicates.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static string Key(DateTimeOffset value) => value.ToString("O");
+
+    /// <summary>Decodes a stored TEXT key back into a <see cref="DateTimeOffset"/>.</summary>
+    public static DateTimeOffset Parse(string text) =>
+        DateTimeOffset.Parse(text, CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, RoundtripStyles);
+}

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Scraping/Parsers/EventOddsParser.cs

@@ -6,9 +6,8 @@ using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
 using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
 using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
 using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
-
-using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
 using AngleSharpConfig = AngleSharp.Configuration;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
 
 namespace Marathon.Infrastructure.Scraping.Parsers;
 
@@ -110,7 +109,7 @@ public sealed partial class EventOddsParser : IEventOddsParser
         //                   no longer rescans the document with QuerySelector
         //                   for every key — that was an O(N) cost paid 6× per
         //                   period).
-        var priceIndex   = BuildSelectionPriceIndex(selections);
+        var priceIndex = BuildSelectionPriceIndex(selections);
         var elementIndex = BuildSelectionElementIndex(selections);
 
         var bets = new List<Bet>();
@@ -187,19 +186,19 @@ public sealed partial class EventOddsParser : IEventOddsParser
         // Try each market variant; first match wins
         foreach (var market in MatchResultMarkets)
         {
-            var win1Key  = $"{eventId}@{market}.1";
-            var drawKey  = $"{eventId}@{market}.draw";
-            var win2Key  = $"{eventId}@{market}.3";
+            var win1Key = $"{eventId}@{market}.1";
+            var drawKey = $"{eventId}@{market}.draw";
+            var win2Key = $"{eventId}@{market}.3";
 
             // Basketball 2-way OT market uses HB_H / HB_A
-            var hbhKey   = $"{eventId}@{market}.HB_H";
-            var hbaKey   = $"{eventId}@{market}.HB_A";
+            var hbhKey = $"{eventId}@{market}.HB_H";
+            var hbaKey = $"{eventId}@{market}.HB_A";
 
-            var hasWin1  = idx.TryGetValue(win1Key, out var rate1);
-            var hasDraw  = idx.TryGetValue(drawKey, out var rateDraw);
-            var hasWin2  = idx.TryGetValue(win2Key, out var rate2);
-            var hasHbh   = idx.TryGetValue(hbhKey, out var rateHbh);
-            var hasHba   = idx.TryGetValue(hbaKey, out var rateHba);
+            var hasWin1 = idx.TryGetValue(win1Key, out var rate1);
+            var hasDraw = idx.TryGetValue(drawKey, out var rateDraw);
+            var hasWin2 = idx.TryGetValue(win2Key, out var rate2);
+            var hasHbh = idx.TryGetValue(hbhKey, out var rateHbh);
+            var hasHba = idx.TryGetValue(hbaKey, out var rateHba);
 
             if (hasWin1 || hasDraw || hasWin2 || hasHbh || hasHba)
             {
@@ -517,8 +516,11 @@ public sealed partial class EventOddsParser : IEventOddsParser
                 value.HasValue ? new OddsValue(value.Value) : null,
                 new OddsRate(rate)));
         }
-        catch (Exception ex)
+        catch (ArgumentException ex)
         {
+            // OddsValue / OddsRate / Bet guard clauses throw ArgumentException and its
+            // derivatives (ArgumentNullException, ArgumentOutOfRangeException). Catch
+            // only those — anything else is a real bug that must not be swallowed here.
             _logger.LogDebug(ex,
                 "Skipping bet ({Type}, {Side}, value={Value}, rate={Rate}) — invariant violation.",
                 type, side, value, rate);

src/Marathon.Infrastructure/Workers/LiveOddsPoller.cs

@@ -28,8 +28,8 @@ internal sealed class LiveOddsPoller : BackgroundService
         ILogger<LiveOddsPoller> logger)
     {
         _services = services ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(services));
-        _opts     = opts     ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(opts));
-        _logger   = logger   ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
+        _opts = opts ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(opts));
+        _logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
     }
 
     protected override async Task ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken stoppingToken)
@@ -47,6 +47,8 @@ internal sealed class LiveOddsPoller : BackgroundService
                 continue;
             }
 
+            var cycleStart = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
             try
             {
                 await using var scope = _services.CreateAsyncScope();
@@ -69,9 +71,17 @@ internal sealed class LiveOddsPoller : BackgroundService
             var interval = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(
                 Math.Max(1, _opts.CurrentValue.LivePollIntervalSeconds));
 
+            // Budget the sleep against the time the cycle already consumed so the
+            // effective cadence tracks the configured interval instead of
+            // (interval + scrapeDuration). If a cycle overran the interval, loop
+            // immediately rather than sleeping a full extra interval.
+            var remaining = interval - (DateTime.UtcNow - cycleStart);
+            if (remaining <= TimeSpan.Zero)
+                continue;
+
             try
             {
-                await Task.Delay(interval, stoppingToken);
+                await Task.Delay(remaining, stoppingToken);
             }
             catch (OperationCanceledException) when (stoppingToken.IsCancellationRequested)
             {

src/Marathon.UI/Components/AnomalyCard.razor

@@ -212,6 +212,7 @@
     private string KindLabel(AnomalyKind kind) => kind switch
     {
         AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip => L["Anomaly.Kind.SuspensionFlip"],
+        AnomalyKind.SteamMove      => L["Anomaly.Kind.SteamMove"],
         _                          => kind.ToString(),
     };
 

src/Marathon.UI/Components/NavBody.razor

@@ -39,8 +39,24 @@
         <MudIcon Icon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.Done" Size="Size.Small" />
         <span>@L["Nav.Results"]</span>
     </NavLink>
+    <NavLink class="m-nav__link" href="anomalies/insights">
+        <MudIcon Icon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.Insights" Size="Size.Small" />
+        <span>@L["Nav.Insights"]</span>
+    </NavLink>
+    <NavLink class="m-nav__link" href="my-bets">
+        <MudIcon Icon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.Receipt" Size="Size.Small" />
+        <span>@L["Nav.MyBets"]</span>
+    </NavLink>
+    <NavLink class="m-nav__link" href="anomalies/backtest">
+        <MudIcon Icon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.QueryStats" Size="Size.Small" />
+        <span>@L["Nav.Backtest"]</span>
+    </NavLink>
 
     <div class="m-nav__group" style="margin-top: var(--m-space-5);">@L["Nav.Section.System"]</div>
+    <NavLink class="m-nav__link" href="export">
+        <MudIcon Icon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.FileDownload" Size="Size.Small" />
+        <span>@L["Nav.Export"]</span>
+    </NavLink>
     <NavLink class="m-nav__link" href="settings">
         <MudIcon Icon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.Tune" Size="Size.Small" />
         <span>@L["Nav.Settings"]</span>

src/Marathon.UI/MainLayout.razor

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@
 @inject ThemeState ThemeState
 @inject LocaleState LocaleState
 @inject IStringLocalizer<SharedResource> L
+@inject IOptionsMonitor<WorkerOptions> Workers
 
 <MudThemeProvider IsDarkMode="@ThemeState.IsDark" Theme="@_theme" />
 <MudPopoverProvider />
@@ -24,6 +25,12 @@
         <div class="m-appbar__spacer"></div>
 
         <div class="m-appbar__tools m-rise m-rise-2">
+            <span class="m-capture-pill" data-test="capture-pill"
+                  aria-label="@L["Scraping.Aria"]" title="@L["Scraping.Aria"]"
+                  style="display:inline-flex; align-items:center; gap:7px; font-family:var(--m-font-mono); font-size:0.6875rem; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:0.12em; color:@(Capturing ? "var(--m-c-positive)" : "var(--m-c-ink-soft)");">
+                <span style="width:8px; height:8px; border-radius:50%; background:@(Capturing ? "var(--m-c-positive)" : "var(--m-c-ink-soft)");"></span>
+                @(Capturing ? L["Scraping.On"] : L["Scraping.Off"])
+            </span>
             <LocaleSwitcher />
             <ThemeToggle />
         </div>
@@ -123,11 +130,20 @@
 @code {
     private bool _drawerOpen = true;
     private MudBlazor.MudTheme _theme = Theme.MarathonTheme.Build();
+    private IDisposable? _workerOptionsListener;
+
+    // "Capturing" when any of the primary pollers is enabled in config.
+    private bool Capturing =>
+        Workers.CurrentValue.LivePollerEnabled
+        || Workers.CurrentValue.UpcomingPollerEnabled
+        || Workers.CurrentValue.AnomalyDetectionEnabled;
 
     protected override void OnInitialized()
     {
         ThemeState.OnChange += StateHasChanged;
         LocaleState.OnChange += StateHasChanged;
+        // Reflect Settings toggles live without requiring a navigation.
+        _workerOptionsListener = Workers.OnChange(_ => InvokeAsync(StateHasChanged));
     }
 
     private void ToggleDrawer() => _drawerOpen = !_drawerOpen;
@@ -136,5 +152,6 @@
     {
         ThemeState.OnChange -= StateHasChanged;
         LocaleState.OnChange -= StateHasChanged;
+        _workerOptionsListener?.Dispose();
     }
 }

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Anomalies/AnomalyFeed.razor

@@ -98,6 +98,9 @@
             <button type="button" class="m-chip" @onclick="MarkAllRead" data-test="mark-read">
                 @L["Anomaly.Filter.MarkRead"]
             </button>
+            <button type="button" class="m-chip" @onclick="OpenInsights" data-test="open-insights">
+                @L["Nav.Insights"]
+            </button>
         </div>
     </div>
 
@@ -269,6 +272,11 @@
         State.MarkAllSeen(DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);
     }
 
+    private void OpenInsights()
+    {
+        Nav.NavigateTo("/anomalies/insights");
+    }
+
     private void HandleClick(AnomalyListItem item)
     {
         Nav.NavigateTo($"/anomalies/{item.Id}");

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Anomalies/Backtest.razor

@@ -0,0 +1,897 @@
+@*
+    Backtest — historical strategy replayer.
+
+    Picks a confidence threshold and a staking rule, runs the simulator over
+    every graded anomaly, and reports the P&L story: equity curve, KPI strip,
+    per-bet trade trace. Same editorial-quant tone as Insights / Journal —
+    accent kicker (not anomaly-red), staged m-rise reveal, m-card form,
+    inline SVG equity curve, mono table.
+*@
+
+@page "/anomalies/backtest"
+@using Marathon.Domain.Backtesting
+@implements IDisposable
+@inject IStringLocalizer<SharedResource> L
+@inject IBacktestService Service
+@inject NavigationManager Nav
+@inject ISnackbar Snackbar
+@inject ILogger<Backtest> Logger
+
+<PageTitle>@L["App.Title"] · @L["Nav.Backtest"]</PageTitle>
+
+<section class="m-shell">
+    <header class="m-rise m-rise-1 m-backtest__header" data-test="backtest-header">
+        <div class="m-backtest__header-text">
+            <span class="m-kicker">@L["Backtest.Kicker"]</span>
+            <h1 class="m-display" style="font-size: clamp(2rem, 4vw, 3rem);">@L["Backtest.Title"]</h1>
+            <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); max-width: 64ch;">@L["Backtest.Lede"]</p>
+        </div>
+    </header>
+
+    @* ---------- Strategy form ---------- *@
+    <section class="m-backtest__section m-rise m-rise-2" data-test="backtest-form-section">
+        <header class="m-backtest__section-head">
+            <span class="m-kicker">@L["Backtest.Section.Strategy"]</span>
+        </header>
+
+        <article class="m-card m-card--accented m-backtest__form-card">
+            <div class="m-backtest__form-grid">
+                <div class="m-backtest__form-field">
+                    <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.Bankroll"]</label>
+                    <MudNumericField T="decimal"
+                                     @bind-Value="_form.StartingBankroll"
+                                     Min="1m"
+                                     Step="100m"
+                                     Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                     data-test="backtest-bankroll" />
+                </div>
+
+                <div class="m-backtest__form-field">
+                    <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.From"]</label>
+                    <MudDatePicker @bind-Date="_form.From"
+                                   DateFormat="yyyy-MM-dd"
+                                   Clearable="true"
+                                   Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                   data-test="backtest-from" />
+                </div>
+
+                <div class="m-backtest__form-field">
+                    <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.To"]</label>
+                    <MudDatePicker @bind-Date="_form.To"
+                                   DateFormat="yyyy-MM-dd"
+                                   Clearable="true"
+                                   Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                   data-test="backtest-to" />
+                    <span class="m-backtest__form-hint">@L["Backtest.Field.DateRange.Hint"]</span>
+                </div>
+
+                <div class="m-backtest__form-field">
+                    <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.MinScore"]</label>
+                    <MudNumericField T="decimal"
+                                     @bind-Value="_form.MinScore"
+                                     Min="0m"
+                                     Max="1m"
+                                     Step="0.05m"
+                                     Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                     data-test="backtest-min-score" />
+                    <span class="m-backtest__form-hint">@L["Backtest.Field.MinScore.Hint"]</span>
+                </div>
+
+                <div class="m-backtest__form-field">
+                    <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.StakeRule"]</label>
+                    <MudSelect T="StakeRule"
+                               Value="_form.StakeRule"
+                               ValueChanged="OnStakeRuleChanged"
+                               Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                               data-test="backtest-stake-rule">
+                        @foreach (var rule in _stakeRules)
+                        {
+                            <MudSelectItem T="StakeRule" Value="@rule">@StakeRuleLabel(rule)</MudSelectItem>
+                        }
+                    </MudSelect>
+                </div>
+
+                @switch (_form.StakeRule)
+                {
+                    case StakeRule.Flat:
+                        <div class="m-backtest__form-field" data-test="backtest-flat-stake-field">
+                            <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.FlatStake"]</label>
+                            <MudNumericField T="decimal"
+                                             @bind-Value="_form.FlatStake"
+                                             Min="0.01m"
+                                             Step="10m"
+                                             Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                             data-test="backtest-flat-stake" />
+                        </div>
+                        break;
+                    case StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll:
+                        <div class="m-backtest__form-field" data-test="backtest-percent-field">
+                            <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.PercentOfBankroll"]</label>
+                            <MudNumericField T="decimal"
+                                             @bind-Value="_form.PercentOfBankrollPercent"
+                                             Min="0.01m"
+                                             Max="100m"
+                                             Step="0.5m"
+                                             Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                             data-test="backtest-percent" />
+                        </div>
+                        break;
+                    case StakeRule.Kelly:
+                        <div class="m-backtest__form-field" data-test="backtest-kelly-field">
+                            <label class="m-backtest__form-label">@L["Backtest.Field.KellyFraction"]</label>
+                            <MudNumericField T="decimal"
+                                             @bind-Value="_form.KellyFractionPercent"
+                                             Min="1m"
+                                             Max="100m"
+                                             Step="5m"
+                                             Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                                             data-test="backtest-kelly" />
+                            <span class="m-backtest__form-hint">@L["Backtest.Field.KellyFraction.Hint"]</span>
+                        </div>
+                        break;
+                }
+            </div>
+
+            @if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(_formError))
+            {
+                <p class="m-backtest__form-error" data-test="backtest-form-error">@_formError</p>
+            }
+
+            <div class="m-backtest__form-actions">
+                <button type="button"
+                        class="m-chip m-backtest__submit"
+                        @onclick="RunAsync"
+                        disabled="@_running"
+                        data-test="backtest-run">
+                    <span class="m-backtest__submit-glyph @(_running ? "is-spinning" : null)" aria-hidden="true">▶</span>
+                    <span>@(_running ? L["Backtest.Action.Running"] : L["Backtest.Action.Run"])</span>
+                </button>
+                @if (_running)
+                {
+                    <button type="button"
+                            class="m-chip"
+                            @onclick="CancelRun"
+                            data-test="backtest-cancel">
+                        <span>@L["Backtest.Action.Cancel"]</span>
+                    </button>
+                }
+            </div>
+        </article>
+    </section>
+
+    @if (_vm is { } vm)
+    {
+        <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+        @* ---------- Result headline ---------- *@
+        <section class="m-backtest__section m-rise m-rise-3" data-test="backtest-result-section">
+            <header class="m-backtest__section-head">
+                <span class="m-kicker">@L["Backtest.Section.Headline"]</span>
+            </header>
+
+            <div class="m-backtest__kpis" data-test="backtest-kpis">
+                <article class="m-backtest__kpi m-backtest__kpi--@BankrollTone(vm)" data-test="backtest-kpi-final">
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.FinalBankroll"]</span>
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-value">@FormatDecimal(vm.FinalBankroll)</span>
+                </article>
+                <article class="m-backtest__kpi m-backtest__kpi--@ProfitTone(vm)" data-test="backtest-kpi-profit">
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.NetProfit"]</span>
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-value">@FormatSignedDecimal(vm.NetProfit, vm.BetsPlaced)</span>
+                </article>
+                <article class="m-backtest__kpi m-backtest__kpi--@RoiTone(vm.RoiPercent)" data-test="backtest-kpi-roi">
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.Roi"]</span>
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-value">@FormatSignedPercent(vm.RoiPercent)</span>
+                </article>
+                <article class="m-backtest__kpi m-backtest__kpi--drawdown" data-test="backtest-kpi-drawdown">
+                    <span class="m-backtest__kpi-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.MaxDrawdown"]</span>
+                    @if (vm.MaxDrawdown == 0m && vm.MaxDrawdownPercent is null)
+                    {
+                        <span class="m-backtest__kpi-value" style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">—</span>
+                    }
+                    else
+                    {
+                        <span class="m-backtest__kpi-value">@FormatSignedDecimal(-vm.MaxDrawdown, 1)</span>
+                        <span class="m-backtest__kpi-sub">@FormatSignedPercent(vm.MaxDrawdownPercent is null ? null : -vm.MaxDrawdownPercent.Value)</span>
+                    }
+                </article>
+            </div>
+
+            <div class="m-backtest__counts m-mono" data-test="backtest-counts">
+                <span><span class="m-backtest__counts-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.BetsPlaced"]</span> <strong>@vm.BetsPlaced</strong></span>
+                <span aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+                <span><span class="m-backtest__counts-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.Wins"]</span> <strong style="color: var(--m-c-positive);">@vm.Wins</strong></span>
+                <span aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+                <span><span class="m-backtest__counts-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.Losses"]</span> <strong style="color: var(--m-c-anomaly);">@vm.Losses</strong></span>
+                <span aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+                <span><span class="m-backtest__counts-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.Skipped"]</span> <strong>@vm.Skipped</strong></span>
+                <span aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+                <span><span class="m-backtest__counts-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.MaxWinStreak"]</span> <strong>@vm.MaxWinStreak</strong></span>
+                <span aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+                <span><span class="m-backtest__counts-label">@L["Backtest.Stat.MaxLossStreak"]</span> <strong>@vm.MaxLossStreak</strong></span>
+            </div>
+        </section>
+
+        @if (vm.BetsPlaced == 0 && vm.Trace.Count == 0 && vm.Skipped == 0)
+        {
+            <div class="m-list-empty m-rise m-rise-4" data-test="backtest-empty-no-data">
+                <span class="m-kicker" style="border-color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">
+                    @L["Common.Empty"]
+                </span>
+                <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); margin-top: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 56ch;">
+                    @L["Backtest.Empty.NoData"]
+                </p>
+            </div>
+        }
+        else if (vm.BetsPlaced == 0)
+        {
+            <div class="m-list-empty m-rise m-rise-4" data-test="backtest-empty-no-bets">
+                <span class="m-kicker" style="border-color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">
+                    @L["Common.Empty"]
+                </span>
+                <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); margin-top: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 56ch;">
+                    @L["Backtest.Empty.NoBetsPlaced"]
+                </p>
+            </div>
+        }
+        else
+        {
+            <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+            @* ---------- Equity curve ---------- *@
+            <section class="m-backtest__section m-rise m-rise-4" data-test="backtest-equity-section">
+                <header class="m-backtest__section-head">
+                    <span class="m-kicker">@L["Backtest.Section.Equity"]</span>
+                </header>
+
+                <article class="m-backtest__equity">
+                    @if (vm.EquityCurve.Count == 0)
+                    {
+                        <div class="m-list-empty" data-test="backtest-equity-empty">
+                            <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); max-width: 50ch;">@L["Backtest.Empty.NoBetsPlaced"]</p>
+                        </div>
+                    }
+                    else
+                    {
+                        @RenderEquityCurve(vm)
+                    }
+                </article>
+            </section>
+
+            <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+            @* ---------- Trade trace ---------- *@
+            <section class="m-backtest__section m-rise m-rise-5" data-test="backtest-trace-section">
+                <header class="m-backtest__section-head">
+                    <span class="m-kicker">@L["Backtest.Section.Trace"]</span>
+                    <span class="m-backtest__section-count m-mono">@vm.Trace.Count</span>
+                </header>
+
+                <div class="m-backtest__table-wrap">
+                    <table class="m-backtest__table" data-test="backtest-trace-table">
+                        <thead>
+                            <tr>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Backtest.Column.DetectedAt"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Backtest.Column.Match"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Backtest.Column.Score"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Backtest.Column.Pick"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Backtest.Column.Rate"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Backtest.Column.Stake"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Backtest.Column.Payout"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Backtest.Column.Bankroll"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Backtest.Column.Outcome"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col"></th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody>
+                            @foreach (var row in vm.Trace)
+                            {
+                                var local = row;
+                                var trace = local.Trace;
+                                <tr class="m-backtest__row m-backtest__row--@(trace.IsWin ? "win" : "loss")"
+                                    data-test="backtest-trace-row"
+                                    data-anomaly-id="@trace.AnomalyId">
+                                    <td class="m-mono">@trace.DetectedAt.ToLocalTime().ToString("yyyy-MM-dd HH:mm", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td style="font-weight: 500;">@local.EventTitle</td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono" style="text-align: right; font-weight: 600;">@trace.Score.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td style="font-weight: 600;">@SideLabel(trace.PostFlipFavourite)</td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono" style="text-align: right;">@trace.TakenRate.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono" style="text-align: right;">@trace.Stake.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono m-backtest__payout m-backtest__payout--@(trace.IsWin ? "win" : "loss")" style="text-align: right;">
+                                        @trace.Payout.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono" style="text-align: right; font-weight: 600;">@trace.BankrollAfter.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        <span class="m-backtest__verdict m-backtest__verdict--@(trace.IsWin ? "win" : "loss")">
+                                            @(trace.IsWin ? L["Backtest.Outcome.Win"] : L["Backtest.Outcome.Loss"])
+                                        </span>
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        <a href="@($"/anomalies/{trace.AnomalyId}")"
+                                           class="m-backtest__open"
+                                           data-test="backtest-trace-open"
+                                           @onclick="@(e => OpenAnomaly(e, trace.AnomalyId))"
+                                           @onclick:preventDefault>
+                                            @L["Insights.Action.OpenAnomaly"]
+                                            <span aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+                                        </a>
+                                    </td>
+                                </tr>
+                            }
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                </div>
+            </section>
+        }
+    }
+</section>
+
+<style>
+    /* ---- Header ---- */
+    .m-backtest__header {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr);
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        max-width: 880px;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__header-text { display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-3); }
+
+    /* ---- Sections ---- */
+    .m-backtest__section { display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-4); }
+    .m-backtest__section-head {
+        display: flex;
+        align-items: baseline;
+        justify-content: space-between;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__section-count {
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.16em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Form ---- */
+    .m-backtest__form-card {
+        display: grid;
+        gap: var(--m-space-4);
+        padding: var(--m-space-5);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__form-grid {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr));
+        gap: var(--m-space-4);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__form-field { display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-2); }
+    .m-backtest__form-label {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__form-hint {
+        font-size: 0.75rem;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__form-error {
+        margin: 0;
+        padding: var(--m-space-3) var(--m-space-4);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        border-left-width: 3px;
+        background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.06);
+        color: var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.8125rem;
+        line-height: 1.5;
+    }
+    [data-theme="dark"] .m-backtest__form-error {
+        background: rgba(248, 113, 113, 0.10);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__form-actions {
+        display: flex;
+        justify-content: flex-end;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__submit {
+        gap: var(--m-space-2);
+        padding: 8px 16px;
+        border-color: var(--m-c-accent);
+        color: var(--m-c-accent);
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.75rem;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__submit:not(:disabled):hover {
+        background: var(--m-c-accent);
+        color: var(--m-c-paper);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__submit:disabled { opacity: 0.6; cursor: progress; }
+    .m-backtest__submit-glyph {
+        display: inline-block;
+        font-size: 0.7rem;
+        line-height: 1;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__submit-glyph.is-spinning { animation: m-backtest-spin 1.1s linear infinite; }
+    @@keyframes m-backtest-spin {
+        from { transform: rotate(0deg); }
+        to   { transform: rotate(360deg); }
+    }
+    @@media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+        .m-backtest__submit-glyph.is-spinning { animation: none; }
+    }
+
+    /* ---- KPI strip ---- */
+    .m-backtest__kpis {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr));
+        gap: var(--m-space-4);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__kpi {
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        border-left: 3px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        padding: var(--m-space-4) var(--m-space-5);
+        display: flex;
+        flex-direction: column;
+        gap: var(--m-space-2);
+        position: relative;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--positive { border-left-color: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--negative { border-left-color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--neutral  { border-left-color: var(--m-c-accent); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--drawdown { border-left-color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi-label {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.16em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__kpi-value {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+        font-size: clamp(1.85rem, 3.4vw, 2.5rem);
+        font-weight: 500;
+        line-height: 1;
+        letter-spacing: -0.02em;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--positive .m-backtest__kpi-value { color: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--negative .m-backtest__kpi-value { color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi--drawdown .m-backtest__kpi-value { color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-backtest__kpi-sub {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+        font-size: 0.8125rem;
+        color: var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        letter-spacing: 0.02em;
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Counts row ---- */
+    .m-backtest__counts {
+        display: flex;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        flex-wrap: wrap;
+        align-items: baseline;
+        padding: var(--m-space-2) 0;
+        font-size: 0.8125rem;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__counts strong {
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+        font-weight: 600;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__counts-label {
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        letter-spacing: 0.12em;
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Equity curve ---- */
+    .m-backtest__equity {
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        padding: var(--m-space-4) var(--m-space-5);
+        position: relative;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__equity-svg {
+        display: block;
+        width: 100%;
+        height: 200px;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__equity-baseline {
+        stroke: var(--m-c-rule);
+        stroke-width: 1;
+        stroke-dasharray: 3 4;
+        fill: none;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__equity-path {
+        fill: none;
+        stroke-width: 2;
+        stroke-linejoin: round;
+        stroke-linecap: round;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__equity-path--positive { stroke: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-backtest__equity-path--negative { stroke: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-backtest__equity-tick {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+        font-size: 10px;
+        fill: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__equity-tick--anchor { fill: var(--m-c-ink); font-weight: 600; }
+
+    /* ---- Trace table ---- */
+    .m-backtest__table-wrap {
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        overflow-x: auto;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__table {
+        width: 100%;
+        border-collapse: collapse;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-body);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__table thead th {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        text-align: left;
+        padding: var(--m-space-3) var(--m-space-3);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        background: var(--m-c-paper-2);
+        white-space: nowrap;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__table tbody td {
+        padding: var(--m-space-3) var(--m-space-3);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        vertical-align: middle;
+        font-size: 0.9375rem;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__table tbody tr:last-child td { border-bottom: 0; }
+    .m-backtest__row { transition: background 120ms ease; }
+    .m-backtest__row:hover { background: var(--m-c-paper-2); }
+    .m-backtest__row--win  { box-shadow: inset 2px 0 0 0 var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-backtest__row--loss { box-shadow: inset 2px 0 0 0 var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    @@media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+        .m-backtest__row { transition: none; }
+    }
+
+    .m-backtest__payout { font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature); font-weight: 600; }
+    .m-backtest__payout--win  { color: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-backtest__payout--loss { color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+
+    .m-backtest__verdict {
+        display: inline-flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: 6px;
+        padding: 2px 8px;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        border: 1px solid currentColor;
+        border-radius: var(--m-radius-xs);
+        background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__verdict--win {
+        color: var(--m-c-positive);
+        background: rgba(21, 128, 61, 0.10);
+    }
+    .m-backtest__verdict--loss {
+        color: var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.10);
+    }
+    [data-theme="dark"] .m-backtest__verdict--win {
+        color: var(--m-c-positive);
+        background: rgba(34, 197, 94, 0.15);
+    }
+    [data-theme="dark"] .m-backtest__verdict--loss {
+        color: var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        background: rgba(248, 113, 113, 0.15);
+    }
+
+    .m-backtest__open {
+        display: inline-flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: 6px;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.75rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.12em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        text-decoration: none;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-accent);
+        padding-bottom: 1px;
+        transition: color 120ms ease, border-color 120ms ease;
+    }
+    .m-backtest__open:hover {
+        color: var(--m-c-accent);
+        border-bottom-color: var(--m-c-ink);
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Empty-state ---- */
+    .m-list-empty {
+        display: grid;
+        place-content: center;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        padding: var(--m-space-7);
+        text-align: center;
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+    }
+</style>
+
+@code {
+    private static readonly StakeRule[] _stakeRules =
+        { StakeRule.Flat, StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll, StakeRule.Kelly };
+
+    private BacktestForm _form = new();
+    private BacktestVm? _vm;
+    private bool _running;
+    private string? _formError;
+    private CancellationTokenSource? _runCts;
+
+    private async Task RunAsync()
+    {
+        if (_running) return;
+        _formError = null;
+
+        if (!_form.IsValid(out var err))
+        {
+            _formError = err;
+            StateHasChanged();
+            return;
+        }
+
+        _runCts?.Cancel();
+        _runCts = new CancellationTokenSource();
+        var ct = _runCts.Token;
+
+        _running = true;
+        StateHasChanged();
+
+        try
+        {
+            var result = await Service.RunAsync(_form, ct);
+            if (ct.IsCancellationRequested) return;
+            _vm = result;
+        }
+        catch (OperationCanceledException) { /* superseded */ }
+        catch (ArgumentException ex)
+        {
+            _formError = ex.Message;
+        }
+        catch (Exception ex)
+        {
+            Logger.LogError(ex, "Backtest simulation failed.");
+            Snackbar.Add(L["Backtest.Error.Generic"].Value, Severity.Error);
+        }
+        finally
+        {
+            _running = false;
+            StateHasChanged();
+        }
+    }
+
+    private void CancelRun() => _runCts?.Cancel();
+
+    private void OnStakeRuleChanged(StakeRule next)
+    {
+        _form.StakeRule = next;
+        _formError = null;
+    }
+
+    private void OpenAnomaly(MouseEventArgs e, Guid anomalyId)
+    {
+        Nav.NavigateTo("/anomalies/" + anomalyId.ToString());
+    }
+
+    // ---- Equity curve rendering --------------------------------------------
+
+    private RenderFragment RenderEquityCurve(BacktestVm vm) => builder =>
+    {
+        var points = vm.EquityCurve;
+        var pointCount = points.Count;
+
+        // Y-axis bounds: include starting bankroll + min/max bankroll, 5% padding.
+        decimal minB = vm.StartingBankroll;
+        decimal maxB = vm.StartingBankroll;
+        foreach (var p in points)
+        {
+            if (p.Bankroll < minB) minB = p.Bankroll;
+            if (p.Bankroll > maxB) maxB = p.Bankroll;
+        }
+        var rawRange = maxB - minB;
+        if (rawRange <= 0m) rawRange = Math.Max(1m, Math.Abs(vm.StartingBankroll) * 0.1m);
+        var pad = rawRange * 0.05m;
+        var yMin = minB - pad;
+        var yMax = maxB + pad;
+        var yRange = yMax - yMin;
+        if (yRange <= 0m) yRange = 1m;
+
+        // SVG canvas (viewBox 0..1000 x 0..200).
+        const int vbW = 1000;
+        const int vbH = 200;
+        const int padL = 56;
+        const int padR = 16;
+        const int padT = 12;
+        const int padB = 22;
+        var plotW = vbW - padL - padR;
+        var plotH = vbH - padT - padB;
+
+        double XAt(int i)
+        {
+            if (pointCount <= 1) return padL + plotW / 2.0;
+            return padL + (plotW * (double)i) / (pointCount - 1);
+        }
+        double YAt(decimal bankroll)
+        {
+            var t = (double)((bankroll - yMin) / yRange);
+            // Flip — SVG y grows downward.
+            return padT + (1.0 - t) * plotH;
+        }
+
+        // Baseline (StartingBankroll) y.
+        var baselineY = YAt(vm.StartingBankroll);
+
+        // Build polyline points string.
+        var sb = new System.Text.StringBuilder();
+        for (var i = 0; i < pointCount; i++)
+        {
+            if (i > 0) sb.Append(' ');
+            sb.Append(XAt(i).ToString("0.##", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+            sb.Append(',');
+            sb.Append(YAt(points[i].Bankroll).ToString("0.##", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        }
+
+        var pathTone = vm.FinalBankroll >= vm.StartingBankroll ? "positive" : "negative";
+
+        builder.OpenElement(0, "svg");
+        builder.AddAttribute(1, "class", "m-backtest__equity-svg");
+        builder.AddAttribute(2, "viewBox", "0 0 " + vbW.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture) + " " + vbH.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(3, "preserveAspectRatio", "none");
+        builder.AddAttribute(4, "role", "img");
+        builder.AddAttribute(5, "aria-label", L["Backtest.Section.Equity"].Value);
+        builder.AddAttribute(6, "data-test", "backtest-equity-svg");
+
+        // Baseline (dotted horizontal at starting bankroll).
+        builder.OpenElement(10, "line");
+        builder.AddAttribute(11, "class", "m-backtest__equity-baseline");
+        builder.AddAttribute(12, "x1", padL.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(13, "y1", baselineY.ToString("0.##", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(14, "x2", (vbW - padR).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(15, "y2", baselineY.ToString("0.##", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        // Polyline.
+        builder.OpenElement(20, "polyline");
+        builder.AddAttribute(21, "class", "m-backtest__equity-path m-backtest__equity-path--" + pathTone);
+        builder.AddAttribute(22, "points", sb.ToString());
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        // Y-axis ticks: yMax (top), starting bankroll (middle), yMin (bottom).
+        var topLabel = FormatTickValue(yMax);
+        var midLabel = FormatTickValue(vm.StartingBankroll);
+        var botLabel = FormatTickValue(yMin);
+
+        // Top tick
+        builder.OpenElement(30, "text");
+        builder.AddAttribute(31, "class", "m-backtest__equity-tick");
+        builder.AddAttribute(32, "x", (padL - 6).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(33, "y", (padT + 8).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(34, "text-anchor", "end");
+        builder.AddContent(35, topLabel);
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        // Mid tick (starting bankroll anchor)
+        builder.OpenElement(40, "text");
+        builder.AddAttribute(41, "class", "m-backtest__equity-tick m-backtest__equity-tick--anchor");
+        builder.AddAttribute(42, "x", (padL - 6).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(43, "y", (baselineY + 3).ToString("0.##", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(44, "text-anchor", "end");
+        builder.AddContent(45, midLabel);
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        // Bottom tick
+        builder.OpenElement(50, "text");
+        builder.AddAttribute(51, "class", "m-backtest__equity-tick");
+        builder.AddAttribute(52, "x", (padL - 6).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(53, "y", (vbH - padB + 12).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+        builder.AddAttribute(54, "text-anchor", "end");
+        builder.AddContent(55, botLabel);
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        // Final-value end label (on far right at end point).
+        if (pointCount > 0)
+        {
+            var endY = YAt(points[pointCount - 1].Bankroll);
+            builder.OpenElement(60, "text");
+            builder.AddAttribute(61, "class", "m-backtest__equity-tick m-backtest__equity-tick--anchor");
+            builder.AddAttribute(62, "x", (vbW - padR - 4).ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+            builder.AddAttribute(63, "y", (endY - 6).ToString("0.##", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+            builder.AddAttribute(64, "text-anchor", "end");
+            builder.AddContent(65, FormatTickValue(points[pointCount - 1].Bankroll));
+            builder.CloseElement();
+        }
+
+        builder.CloseElement(); // svg
+    };
+
+    // ---- Formatting / labels -----------------------------------------------
+
+    private string StakeRuleLabel(StakeRule rule) => rule switch
+    {
+        StakeRule.Flat              => L["Backtest.StakeRule.Flat"],
+        StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll => L["Backtest.StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll"],
+        StakeRule.Kelly             => L["Backtest.StakeRule.Kelly"],
+        _                           => rule.ToString(),
+    };
+
+    private string SideLabel(Side side) => side switch
+    {
+        Side.Side1 => L["Journal.Side.Side1"],
+        Side.Side2 => L["Journal.Side.Side2"],
+        Side.Draw  => L["Journal.Side.Draw"],
+        Side.Less  => L["Journal.Side.Less"],
+        Side.More  => L["Journal.Side.More"],
+        _          => side.ToString(),
+    };
+
+    private static string FormatDecimal(decimal value) =>
+        value.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+
+    private static string FormatSignedDecimal(decimal value, int betsPlaced)
+    {
+        if (betsPlaced == 0) return "—";
+        var sign = value > 0m ? "+" : (value < 0m ? "-" : "");
+        var abs = Math.Abs(value);
+        return sign + abs.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+    }
+
+    private static string FormatSignedPercent(decimal? value)
+    {
+        if (value is null) return "—";
+        var v = value.Value;
+        var sign = v > 0m ? "+" : (v < 0m ? "-" : "");
+        var abs = Math.Abs(v);
+        return sign + abs.ToString("0.0", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture) + "%";
+    }
+
+    private static string FormatTickValue(decimal value) =>
+        value.ToString("0", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+
+    private static string BankrollTone(BacktestVm vm)
+    {
+        if (vm.BetsPlaced == 0) return "neutral";
+        if (vm.FinalBankroll > vm.StartingBankroll) return "positive";
+        if (vm.FinalBankroll < vm.StartingBankroll) return "negative";
+        return "neutral";
+    }
+
+    private static string ProfitTone(BacktestVm vm)
+    {
+        if (vm.BetsPlaced == 0) return "neutral";
+        if (vm.NetProfit > 0m) return "positive";
+        if (vm.NetProfit < 0m) return "negative";
+        return "neutral";
+    }
+
+    private static string RoiTone(decimal? roi) => roi switch
+    {
+        null    => "neutral",
+        > 0m    => "positive",
+        < 0m    => "negative",
+        _       => "neutral",
+    };
+
+    public void Dispose()
+    {
+        _runCts?.Cancel();
+        _runCts?.Dispose();
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Anomalies/Detail.razor

@@ -54,6 +54,13 @@
                            data-test="link-back-to-event">
                     @L["Anomaly.Detail.LinkBackToEvent"]
                 </MudButton>
+                <MudButton Variant="Variant.Outlined"
+                           StartIcon="@Icons.Material.Outlined.Receipt"
+                           OnClick="@(() => Nav.NavigateTo($"/my-bets?eventId={Uri.EscapeDataString(_detail.Item.EventId.Value)}"))"
+                           Class="m-detail-header__export"
+                           data-test="log-bet">
+                    @L["Action.LogBet"]
+                </MudButton>
             </aside>
         </header>
 
@@ -99,6 +106,7 @@
     private string KindLabel(AnomalyKind kind) => kind switch
     {
         AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip => L["Anomaly.Kind.SuspensionFlip"],
+        AnomalyKind.SteamMove      => L["Anomaly.Kind.SteamMove"],
         _                          => kind.ToString(),
     };
 

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Anomalies/Insights.razor

@@ -0,0 +1,887 @@
+@*
+    Insights — calibration page for the SuspensionFlip detector.
+
+    Loads a precomputed AnomalyInsightsVm and answers the single question that
+    matters: when the bookmaker flipped, did the post-flip favourite actually
+    win? Big numbers up top, three breakdowns in the middle, drill-down tables
+    at the bottom. Same editorial-quant tone as AnomalyFeed / Home.
+*@
+
+@page "/anomalies/insights"
+@using Marathon.Application.Reporting
+@using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection
+@using Marathon.Domain.Enums
+@implements IDisposable
+@inject IStringLocalizer<SharedResource> L
+@inject IAnomalyInsightsService InsightsService
+@inject NavigationManager Nav
+@inject ILogger<Insights> Logger
+
+<PageTitle>@L["App.Title"] · @L["Nav.Insights"]</PageTitle>
+
+<section class="m-shell">
+    <header class="m-rise m-rise-1 m-insights__header" data-test="insights-header">
+        <div class="m-insights__header-text">
+            <span class="m-kicker" style="color: var(--m-c-anomaly); border-color: var(--m-c-anomaly);">
+                @L["Insights.Kicker"]
+            </span>
+            <h1 class="m-display" style="font-size: clamp(2rem, 4vw, 3rem);">@L["Insights.Title"]</h1>
+            <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); max-width: 64ch;">@L["Insights.Lede"]</p>
+        </div>
+        <div class="m-insights__header-actions">
+            <button type="button"
+                    class="m-chip m-insights__refresh"
+                    @onclick="LoadAsync"
+                    disabled="@_loading"
+                    data-test="insights-refresh">
+                <span class="m-insights__refresh-glyph @(_loading ? "is-spinning" : null)" aria-hidden="true">↻</span>
+                <span>@L["Insights.Action.Refresh"]</span>
+            </button>
+        </div>
+    </header>
+
+    @if (_loading && _vm is null)
+    {
+        <div class="m-list-empty m-rise m-rise-2" data-test="insights-loading">
+            <MudProgressCircular Indeterminate="true" Size="Size.Small" />
+            <span class="m-mono">@L["Common.Loading"]</span>
+        </div>
+    }
+    else if (_errored && _vm is null)
+    {
+        <div class="m-list-empty m-rise m-rise-2" data-test="insights-error">
+            <span class="m-kicker" style="border-color: var(--m-c-anomaly); color: var(--m-c-anomaly);">
+                @L["Common.Empty"]
+            </span>
+            <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); margin-top: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 50ch;">
+                @L["Insights.Empty.None"]
+            </p>
+        </div>
+    }
+    else if (_vm is { } vm)
+    {
+        @* ---------- KPI strip ---------- *@
+        <div class="m-insights__kpis m-rise m-rise-2" data-test="insights-kpis">
+            <article class="m-insights__kpi m-insights__kpi--@HitRateTone(vm.HitRate)" data-test="insights-kpi-hitrate">
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-label">@L["Insights.Stat.HitRate"]</span>
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-value">@FormatPercent(vm.HitRate)</span>
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-hint">@L["Insights.Stat.HitRate.Hint"]</span>
+            </article>
+            <article class="m-insights__kpi" data-test="insights-kpi-resolved">
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-label">@L["Insights.Stat.Resolved"]</span>
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-value">
+                    @vm.ResolvedCount<span class="m-insights__kpi-denom">&nbsp;/&nbsp;@vm.TotalAnomalies</span>
+                </span>
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-hint">@L["Insights.Stat.Resolved.Hint"]</span>
+            </article>
+            <article class="m-insights__kpi" data-test="insights-kpi-unresolved">
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-label">@L["Insights.Stat.Unresolved"]</span>
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-value">@vm.UnresolvedCount</span>
+                <span class="m-insights__kpi-hint">@L["Insights.Stat.Unresolved.Hint"]</span>
+            </article>
+            <article class="m-insights__kpi m-insights__kpi--split" data-test="insights-kpi-hitsmisses">
+                <div class="m-insights__split">
+                    <div class="m-insights__split-cell">
+                        <span class="m-insights__kpi-label">@L["Insights.Stat.Hits"]</span>
+                        <span class="m-insights__kpi-value m-insights__kpi-value--positive">@vm.HitCount</span>
+                    </div>
+                    <div class="m-insights__split-divider" aria-hidden="true"></div>
+                    <div class="m-insights__split-cell">
+                        <span class="m-insights__kpi-label">@L["Insights.Stat.Misses"]</span>
+                        <span class="m-insights__kpi-value m-insights__kpi-value--negative">@vm.MissCount</span>
+                    </div>
+                </div>
+            </article>
+        </div>
+
+        <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+        @* ---------- By severity ---------- *@
+        <section class="m-insights__section m-rise m-rise-3" data-test="insights-by-severity">
+            <header class="m-insights__section-head">
+                <span class="m-kicker">@L["Insights.Section.BySeverity"]</span>
+            </header>
+            @RenderBucketTable(vm.BySeverity, BucketRenderKind.Severity)
+        </section>
+
+        <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+        @* ---------- By sport ---------- *@
+        <section class="m-insights__section m-rise m-rise-3" data-test="insights-by-sport">
+            <header class="m-insights__section-head">
+                <span class="m-kicker">@L["Insights.Section.BySport"]</span>
+            </header>
+            @RenderBucketTable(vm.BySport, BucketRenderKind.Sport)
+        </section>
+
+        <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+        @* ---------- By score bin (7 fixed rows) ---------- *@
+        <section class="m-insights__section m-rise m-rise-3" data-test="insights-by-score">
+            <header class="m-insights__section-head">
+                <span class="m-kicker">@L["Insights.Section.ByScore"]</span>
+            </header>
+            @RenderBucketTable(vm.ByScoreBin, BucketRenderKind.Score)
+        </section>
+
+        <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+        @* ---------- Resolved table ---------- *@
+        <section class="m-insights__section m-rise m-rise-4" data-test="insights-resolved">
+            <header class="m-insights__section-head">
+                <span class="m-kicker">@L["Insights.Section.Resolved"]</span>
+                <span class="m-insights__section-count m-mono">@vm.Resolved.Count</span>
+            </header>
+
+            @if (vm.TotalAnomalies == 0)
+            {
+                <div class="m-list-empty" data-test="insights-empty-none">
+                    <span class="m-kicker" style="border-color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">
+                        @L["Common.Empty"]
+                    </span>
+                    <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); margin-top: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 56ch;">
+                        @L["Insights.Empty.None"]
+                    </p>
+                </div>
+            }
+            else if (vm.Resolved.Count == 0)
+            {
+                <div class="m-list-empty" data-test="insights-empty-resolved">
+                    <span class="m-kicker" style="border-color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">
+                        @L["Common.Empty"]
+                    </span>
+                    <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); margin-top: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 56ch;">
+                        @L["Insights.Empty.NoneResolved"]
+                    </p>
+                </div>
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                <div class="m-insights__table-wrap">
+                    <table class="m-insights__table" data-test="insights-resolved-table">
+                        <thead>
+                            <tr>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.DetectedAt"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Match"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Sport"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Insights.Column.Score"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.PreFavourite"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.PostFavourite"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Winner"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Outcome"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col"></th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody>
+                            @foreach (var row in vm.Resolved)
+                            {
+                                var local = row;
+                                <tr class="m-insights__row m-insights__row--@OutcomeCss(local.Outcome)"
+                                    data-test="insights-resolved-row"
+                                    data-anomaly-id="@local.AnomalyId">
+                                    <td class="m-mono">@local.DetectedAt.ToLocalTime().ToString("yyyy-MM-dd HH:mm", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td style="font-weight: 500;">@local.EventTitle</td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        @if (local.Sport is { } sport)
+                                        {
+                                            <span class="m-insights__sport">
+                                                <SportIcon Code="@sport.Value" Label="@SportLabels.Resolve(L, sport.Value)" ClassName="m-insights__sport-icon" />
+                                                <span>@SportLabels.Resolve(L, sport.Value)</span>
+                                            </span>
+                                        }
+                                        else
+                                        {
+                                            <span style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">—</span>
+                                        }
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono" style="text-align: right; font-weight: 600;">
+                                        @local.Score.ToString("0.00", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td>@SideLabel(local.PreFlipFavourite)</td>
+                                    <td style="font-weight: 600;">@SideLabel(local.PostFlipFavourite)</td>
+                                    <td>@SideLabel(local.ActualWinner)</td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        <span class="m-insights__verdict m-insights__verdict--@OutcomeCss(local.Outcome)">
+                                            @OutcomeLabel(local.Outcome)
+                                        </span>
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        <a href="@($"/anomalies/{local.AnomalyId}")"
+                                           class="m-insights__open"
+                                           data-test="insights-open-link"
+                                           @onclick="@(e => OpenAnomaly(e, local.AnomalyId))"
+                                           @onclick:preventDefault>
+                                            @L["Insights.Action.OpenAnomaly"]
+                                            <span aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+                                        </a>
+                                    </td>
+                                </tr>
+                            }
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                </div>
+            }
+        </section>
+
+        @* ---------- Unresolved table (only when non-empty) ---------- *@
+        @if (vm.Unresolved.Count > 0)
+        {
+            <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+            <section class="m-insights__section m-rise m-rise-5" data-test="insights-unresolved">
+                <header class="m-insights__section-head">
+                    <span class="m-kicker" style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); border-color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">
+                        @L["Insights.Section.Unresolved"]
+                    </span>
+                    <span class="m-insights__section-count m-mono">@vm.Unresolved.Count</span>
+                </header>
+
+                <div class="m-insights__table-wrap m-insights__table-wrap--dim">
+                    <table class="m-insights__table" data-test="insights-unresolved-table">
+                        <thead>
+                            <tr>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.DetectedAt"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Match"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Sport"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col" style="text-align: right;">@L["Insights.Column.Score"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.PreFavourite"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.PostFavourite"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col">@L["Insights.Column.Outcome"]</th>
+                                <th scope="col"></th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody>
+                            @foreach (var row in vm.Unresolved)
+                            {
+                                var local = row;
+                                <tr class="m-insights__row m-insights__row--pending"
+                                    data-test="insights-unresolved-row"
+                                    data-anomaly-id="@local.AnomalyId">
+                                    <td class="m-mono">@local.DetectedAt.ToLocalTime().ToString("yyyy-MM-dd HH:mm", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)</td>
+                                    <td>@local.EventTitle</td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        @if (local.Sport is { } sport)
+                                        {
+                                            <span class="m-insights__sport">
+                                                <SportIcon Code="@sport.Value" Label="@SportLabels.Resolve(L, sport.Value)" ClassName="m-insights__sport-icon" />
+                                                <span>@SportLabels.Resolve(L, sport.Value)</span>
+                                            </span>
+                                        }
+                                        else
+                                        {
+                                            <span style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);">—</span>
+                                        }
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td class="m-mono" style="text-align: right; font-weight: 600;">
+                                        @local.Score.ToString("0.00", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td>@SideLabel(local.PreFlipFavourite)</td>
+                                    <td style="font-weight: 600;">@SideLabel(local.PostFlipFavourite)</td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        <span class="m-insights__verdict m-insights__verdict--pending">
+                                            @L["Insights.Outcome.Unresolved"]
+                                        </span>
+                                    </td>
+                                    <td>
+                                        <a href="@($"/anomalies/{local.AnomalyId}")"
+                                           class="m-insights__open"
+                                           @onclick="@(e => OpenAnomaly(e, local.AnomalyId))"
+                                           @onclick:preventDefault>
+                                            @L["Insights.Action.OpenAnomaly"]
+                                            <span aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+                                        </a>
+                                    </td>
+                                </tr>
+                            }
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                </div>
+            </section>
+        }
+    }
+</section>
+
+<style>
+    .m-insights__header {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) auto;
+        gap: var(--m-space-5);
+        align-items: end;
+    }
+    @@media (max-width: 720px) {
+        .m-insights__header { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
+        .m-insights__header-actions { justify-self: start; }
+    }
+    .m-insights__header-text {
+        display: grid;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        max-width: 880px;
+    }
+    .m-insights__header-actions { display: flex; gap: var(--m-space-3); }
+
+    .m-insights__refresh {
+        gap: var(--m-space-2);
+        padding: 6px 12px;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.75rem;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+    }
+    .m-insights__refresh:disabled { opacity: 0.6; cursor: progress; }
+    .m-insights__refresh-glyph {
+        display: inline-block;
+        font-size: 0.875rem;
+        line-height: 1;
+        transition: transform 200ms ease;
+    }
+    .m-insights__refresh:hover .m-insights__refresh-glyph { transform: rotate(45deg); }
+    .m-insights__refresh-glyph.is-spinning { animation: m-insights-spin 1.1s linear infinite; }
+    @@keyframes m-insights-spin {
+        from { transform: rotate(0deg); }
+        to   { transform: rotate(360deg); }
+    }
+    @@media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+        .m-insights__refresh-glyph.is-spinning { animation: none; }
+        .m-insights__refresh:hover .m-insights__refresh-glyph { transform: none; }
+    }
+
+    /* ---- KPI strip ---- */
+    .m-insights__kpis {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr));
+        gap: var(--m-space-4);
+    }
+    .m-insights__kpi {
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        border-left: 3px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        padding: var(--m-space-4) var(--m-space-5);
+        display: flex;
+        flex-direction: column;
+        gap: var(--m-space-2);
+        position: relative;
+    }
+    .m-insights__kpi--positive { border-left-color: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-insights__kpi--neutral  { border-left-color: var(--m-c-accent); }
+    .m-insights__kpi--negative { border-left-color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-insights__kpi-label {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.16em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-insights__kpi-value {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+        font-size: clamp(2rem, 3.5vw, 2.625rem);
+        font-weight: 500;
+        line-height: 1;
+        letter-spacing: -0.02em;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+    }
+    .m-insights__kpi--positive .m-insights__kpi-value { color: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-insights__kpi--negative .m-insights__kpi-value { color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-insights__kpi-value--positive { color: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-insights__kpi-value--negative { color: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-insights__kpi-denom {
+        font-size: 0.55em;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        font-weight: 400;
+    }
+    .m-insights__kpi-hint {
+        font-size: 0.8125rem;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-insights__kpi--split { padding: var(--m-space-4) var(--m-space-5); }
+    .m-insights__split {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: 1fr auto 1fr;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+    }
+    .m-insights__split-cell { display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 6px; }
+    .m-insights__split-cell:last-child { text-align: right; }
+    .m-insights__split-divider {
+        width: 1px;
+        height: 56px;
+        background: var(--m-c-rule);
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Section headers ---- */
+    .m-insights__section { display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-4); }
+    .m-insights__section-head {
+        display: flex;
+        align-items: baseline;
+        justify-content: space-between;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+    }
+    .m-insights__section-count {
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.16em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Bucket / breakdown grid ---- */
+    .m-insights__buckets {
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        overflow: hidden;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-head,
+    .m-insights__bucket-row {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: minmax(180px, 1.4fr) minmax(140px, 1fr) minmax(220px, 2fr);
+        gap: var(--m-space-4);
+        align-items: center;
+        padding: var(--m-space-3) var(--m-space-4);
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-head {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        background: var(--m-c-paper-2);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-row {
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        font-size: 0.9375rem;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-row:last-child { border-bottom: 0; }
+    .m-insights__bucket-row--dim { color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); }
+    .m-insights__bucket-row--dim .m-insights__bucket-label { color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); }
+
+    .m-insights__bucket-label {
+        display: inline-flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        font-weight: 500;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-label--mono {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        letter-spacing: 0.04em;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-counts {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+    }
+    .m-insights__bucket-counts strong {
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+        font-weight: 600;
+    }
+
+    .m-insights__bar {
+        display: grid;
+        grid-template-columns: 1fr 56px;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        align-items: center;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bar-track {
+        position: relative;
+        height: 8px;
+        background: var(--m-c-paper-2);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        overflow: hidden;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bar-fill {
+        position: absolute;
+        inset: 0 auto 0 0;
+        background: var(--m-c-accent);
+        transition: width 320ms cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.7, 0.2, 1);
+    }
+    .m-insights__bar-fill--positive { background: var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-insights__bar-fill--negative { background: var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-insights__bar-fill--neutral  { background: var(--m-c-accent); }
+    @@media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+        .m-insights__bar-fill { transition: none; }
+    }
+    .m-insights__bar-pct {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-feature-settings: var(--m-num-feature);
+        font-size: 0.875rem;
+        font-weight: 600;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+        text-align: right;
+    }
+    .m-insights__bar-na {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.75rem;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        letter-spacing: 0.1em;
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Resolved / unresolved tables ---- */
+    .m-insights__table-wrap {
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        overflow-x: auto;
+    }
+    .m-insights__table-wrap--dim { background: var(--m-c-paper-2); opacity: 0.92; }
+    .m-insights__table {
+        width: 100%;
+        border-collapse: collapse;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-body);
+    }
+    .m-insights__table thead th {
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        text-align: left;
+        padding: var(--m-space-3) var(--m-space-3);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        background: var(--m-c-paper-2);
+        white-space: nowrap;
+    }
+    .m-insights__table tbody td {
+        padding: var(--m-space-3) var(--m-space-3);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+        vertical-align: middle;
+        font-size: 0.9375rem;
+    }
+    .m-insights__table tbody tr:last-child td { border-bottom: 0; }
+    .m-insights__row { transition: background 120ms ease; }
+    .m-insights__row:hover { background: var(--m-c-paper-2); }
+    .m-insights__row--hit    { box-shadow: inset 2px 0 0 0 var(--m-c-positive); }
+    .m-insights__row--miss   { box-shadow: inset 2px 0 0 0 var(--m-c-anomaly); }
+    .m-insights__row--pending { box-shadow: inset 2px 0 0 0 var(--m-c-rule); }
+
+    .m-insights__sport {
+        display: inline-flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: var(--m-space-2);
+    }
+    .m-insights__sport-icon { --m-sport-size: 18px; }
+
+    .m-insights__verdict {
+        display: inline-flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: 6px;
+        padding: 2px 8px;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.6875rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.14em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        border: 1px solid currentColor;
+        border-radius: var(--m-radius-xs);
+        background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);
+    }
+    .m-insights__verdict--hit {
+        color: var(--m-c-positive);
+        background: rgba(21, 128, 61, 0.10);
+    }
+    .m-insights__verdict--miss {
+        color: var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        background: rgba(220, 38, 38, 0.10);
+    }
+    .m-insights__verdict--pending {
+        color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);
+        background: transparent;
+    }
+    [data-theme="dark"] .m-insights__verdict--hit {
+        color: var(--m-c-positive);
+        background: rgba(34, 197, 94, 0.15);
+    }
+    [data-theme="dark"] .m-insights__verdict--miss {
+        color: var(--m-c-anomaly);
+        background: rgba(248, 113, 113, 0.15);
+    }
+
+    .m-insights__open {
+        display: inline-flex;
+        align-items: center;
+        gap: 6px;
+        font-family: var(--m-font-mono);
+        font-size: 0.75rem;
+        letter-spacing: 0.12em;
+        text-transform: uppercase;
+        text-decoration: none;
+        color: var(--m-c-ink);
+        border-bottom: 1px solid var(--m-c-accent);
+        padding-bottom: 1px;
+        transition: color 120ms ease, border-color 120ms ease;
+    }
+    .m-insights__open:hover {
+        color: var(--m-c-accent);
+        border-bottom-color: var(--m-c-ink);
+    }
+
+    /* ---- Empty-state block (shared with feed) ---- */
+    .m-list-empty {
+        display: grid;
+        place-content: center;
+        gap: var(--m-space-3);
+        padding: var(--m-space-7);
+        text-align: center;
+        background: var(--m-c-paper);
+        border: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);
+    }
+</style>
+
+@code {
+    // Render kind for the breakdown grid — disambiguates how `Key` is shown.
+    private enum BucketRenderKind
+    {
+        Severity,
+        Sport,
+        Score,
+    }
+
+    private AnomalyInsightsVm? _vm;
+    private bool _loading = true;
+    private bool _errored;
+    private CancellationTokenSource? _loadCts;
+
+    protected override async Task OnInitializedAsync()
+    {
+        await LoadAsync();
+    }
+
+    private async Task LoadAsync()
+    {
+        _loadCts?.Cancel();
+        _loadCts = new CancellationTokenSource();
+        var ct = _loadCts.Token;
+
+        _loading = true;
+        _errored = false;
+        StateHasChanged();
+
+        try
+        {
+            var report = await InsightsService.GetReportAsync(ct);
+            if (ct.IsCancellationRequested) return;
+            _vm = report;
+        }
+        catch (OperationCanceledException) { /* superseded */ }
+        catch (Exception ex)
+        {
+            Logger.LogError(ex, "Insights: failed to build the anomaly outcome report.");
+            _errored = true;
+            _vm = null;
+        }
+        finally
+        {
+            _loading = false;
+            StateHasChanged();
+        }
+    }
+
+    private void OpenAnomaly(MouseEventArgs e, Guid anomalyId)
+    {
+        Nav.NavigateTo("/anomalies/" + anomalyId.ToString());
+    }
+
+    // ---- Bucket rendering ---------------------------------------------------
+
+    private RenderFragment RenderBucketTable(
+        IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> buckets,
+        BucketRenderKind kind) => builder =>
+    {
+        builder.OpenElement(0, "div");
+        builder.AddAttribute(1, "class", "m-insights__buckets");
+        builder.AddAttribute(2, "data-test", "insights-bucket-grid");
+
+        // Head row
+        builder.OpenElement(10, "div");
+        builder.AddAttribute(11, "class", "m-insights__bucket-head");
+
+        builder.OpenElement(12, "span");
+        builder.AddContent(13, L["Insights.Column.Bucket"]);
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        builder.OpenElement(14, "span");
+        builder.AddContent(15, L["Insights.Column.HitsOfTotal"]);
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        builder.OpenElement(16, "span");
+        builder.AddContent(17, L["Insights.Column.HitRate"]);
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        builder.CloseElement();
+
+        // Data rows
+        var seq = 100;
+        foreach (var bucket in buckets)
+        {
+            var local = bucket;
+            var isEmpty = local.Total == 0;
+            var rowClass = isEmpty
+                ? "m-insights__bucket-row m-insights__bucket-row--dim"
+                : "m-insights__bucket-row";
+
+            builder.OpenElement(seq++, "div");
+            builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", rowClass);
+            builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "data-test", "insights-bucket-row");
+            builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "data-bucket-key", local.Key);
+
+            // Label cell
+            builder.OpenElement(seq++, "span");
+            var labelClass = kind == BucketRenderKind.Score
+                ? "m-insights__bucket-label m-insights__bucket-label--mono"
+                : "m-insights__bucket-label";
+            builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", labelClass);
+            builder.AddContent(seq++, RenderBucketLabel(local.Key, kind));
+            builder.CloseElement();
+
+            // Counts cell
+            builder.OpenElement(seq++, "span");
+            builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bucket-counts");
+            builder.OpenElement(seq++, "strong");
+            builder.AddContent(seq++, local.Hits.ToString(System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+            builder.CloseElement();
+            builder.AddContent(seq++, " / " + local.Total.ToString(System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+            builder.CloseElement();
+
+            // Hit-rate cell — bar + percent, or N/A pill when empty
+            builder.OpenElement(seq++, "div");
+            builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bar");
+
+            if (isEmpty || local.HitRate is null)
+            {
+                builder.OpenElement(seq++, "span");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bar-na");
+                builder.AddContent(seq++, L["Insights.Bucket.NotApplicable"]);
+                builder.CloseElement();
+
+                builder.OpenElement(seq++, "span");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bar-pct");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "style", "color: var(--m-c-ink-soft);");
+                builder.AddContent(seq++, "—");
+                builder.CloseElement();
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                var rate = local.HitRate.Value;
+                var pct = (double)(rate * 100m);
+                var pctClamped = Math.Max(0, Math.Min(100, pct));
+                var tone = rate >= 0.60m ? "positive" : (rate < 0.40m ? "negative" : "neutral");
+
+                builder.OpenElement(seq++, "div");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bar-track");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "role", "progressbar");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "aria-valuemin", "0");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "aria-valuemax", "100");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "aria-valuenow", pctClamped.ToString("0", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture));
+
+                builder.OpenElement(seq++, "div");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bar-fill m-insights__bar-fill--" + tone);
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "style", "width: " + pctClamped.ToString("0.###", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture) + "%;");
+                builder.CloseElement();
+
+                builder.CloseElement();
+
+                builder.OpenElement(seq++, "span");
+                builder.AddAttribute(seq++, "class", "m-insights__bar-pct");
+                builder.AddContent(seq++, ((int)Math.Round(pct, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero)).ToString(System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture) + "%");
+                builder.CloseElement();
+            }
+
+            builder.CloseElement(); // .m-insights__bar
+            builder.CloseElement(); // .m-insights__bucket-row
+        }
+
+        builder.CloseElement(); // .m-insights__buckets
+    };
+
+    private RenderFragment RenderBucketLabel(string key, BucketRenderKind kind) => builder =>
+    {
+        switch (kind)
+        {
+            case BucketRenderKind.Severity:
+            {
+                var locKey = key switch
+                {
+                    OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityHigh   => "Anomaly.Severity.High",
+                    OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityMedium => "Anomaly.Severity.Medium",
+                    OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityLow    => "Anomaly.Severity.Low",
+                    _                                => "Anomaly.Severity.Low",
+                };
+                builder.AddContent(0, L[locKey]);
+                break;
+            }
+            case BucketRenderKind.Sport:
+            {
+                var trimmed = key.StartsWith(OutcomeBucketKeys.SportPrefix, StringComparison.Ordinal)
+                    ? key.Substring(OutcomeBucketKeys.SportPrefix.Length)
+                    : key;
+                if (int.TryParse(trimmed, System.Globalization.NumberStyles.Integer, System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, out var code))
+                {
+                    var label = SportLabels.Resolve(L, code);
+                    builder.OpenComponent<SportIcon>(0);
+                    builder.AddAttribute(1, "Code", code);
+                    builder.AddAttribute(2, "Label", label);
+                    builder.AddAttribute(3, "ClassName", "m-insights__sport-icon");
+                    builder.CloseComponent();
+                    builder.AddContent(4, label);
+                }
+                else
+                {
+                    builder.AddContent(0, key);
+                }
+                break;
+            }
+            case BucketRenderKind.Score:
+            default:
+            {
+                var trimmed = key.StartsWith(OutcomeBucketKeys.BinPrefix, StringComparison.Ordinal)
+                    ? key.Substring(OutcomeBucketKeys.BinPrefix.Length)
+                    : key;
+                builder.AddContent(0, trimmed);
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+    };
+
+    // ---- Formatting / labels -----------------------------------------------
+
+    private static string HitRateTone(decimal? rate) => rate switch
+    {
+        null        => "neutral",
+        >= 0.60m    => "positive",
+        < 0.40m     => "negative",
+        _           => "neutral",
+    };
+
+    private static string FormatPercent(decimal? rate)
+    {
+        if (rate is null) return "—";
+        var pct = (int)Math.Round(rate.Value * 100m, MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero);
+        return pct.ToString(System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture) + "%";
+    }
+
+    private string SideLabel(Side? side) => side switch
+    {
+        Side.Side1 => L["Insights.Side.Side1"],
+        Side.Side2 => L["Insights.Side.Side2"],
+        Side.Draw  => L["Insights.Side.Draw"],
+        _          => L["Insights.Side.Unknown"],
+    };
+
+    private string OutcomeLabel(AnomalyOutcomeKind o) => o switch
+    {
+        AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit        => L["Insights.Outcome.Hit"],
+        AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss       => L["Insights.Outcome.Miss"],
+        AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved => L["Insights.Outcome.Unresolved"],
+        _                             => L["Insights.Outcome.Unresolved"],
+    };
+
+    private static string OutcomeCss(AnomalyOutcomeKind o) => o switch
+    {
+        AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit        => "hit",
+        AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss       => "miss",
+        AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved => "pending",
+        _                             => "pending",
+    };
+
+    public void Dispose()
+    {
+        _loadCts?.Cancel();
+        _loadCts?.Dispose();
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Export/ExportHub.razor

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+@*
+    ExportHub — a top-level home for the Excel export so it is no longer gated
+    behind opening a single event's detail page. Hosts the shared ExportDialog
+    (date range + kind) which is not event-specific.
+*@
+
+@page "/export"
+@inject IStringLocalizer<SharedResource> L
+@inject IDialogService Dialog
+@inject ISnackbar Snackbar
+
+<PageTitle>@L["App.Title"] · @L["Export.Title"]</PageTitle>
+
+<section class="m-shell">
+    <header class="m-rise m-rise-1" style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 880px;">
+        <span class="m-kicker">@L["Export.Kicker"]</span>
+        <h1 class="m-display" style="font-size: clamp(2rem, 4vw, 3rem);">@L["Export.Title"]</h1>
+        <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); max-width: 60ch;">@L["Export.Hub.Lede"]</p>
+    </header>
+
+    <hr class="m-rule--double" />
+
+    <div class="m-rise m-rise-2" style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-3);">
+        <div>
+            <button type="button" class="m-chip" @onclick="OpenExportDialog" data-test="export-hub-open">
+                @L["Export.Hub.Action"] →
+            </button>
+        </div>
+        <span class="m-mono" style="font-size: 0.75rem; color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); letter-spacing: 0.08em;">
+            @L["Export.Hub.FilenameHint"]
+        </span>
+    </div>
+</section>
+
+@code {
+    private async Task OpenExportDialog()
+    {
+        var parameters = new DialogParameters
+        {
+            ["InitialFrom"] = MoscowTime.Now.Date.AddDays(-7),
+            ["InitialTo"] = MoscowTime.Now.Date,
+        };
+
+        var options = new DialogOptions
+        {
+            CloseOnEscapeKey = true,
+            FullWidth = true,
+            MaxWidth = MaxWidth.Small,
+        };
+
+        var reference = await Dialog.ShowAsync<ExportDialog>(L["Export.Title"], parameters, options);
+        var result = await reference.Result;
+        if (result is { Canceled: false, Data: string path })
+        {
+            Snackbar.Add(string.Format(CultureInfo.CurrentCulture, L["Export.Success"].Value, path), Severity.Success);
+        }
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Home.razor

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 @page "/"
 @inject IStringLocalizer<SharedResource> L
+@inject IDashboardSummaryService Dashboard
+@inject ILogger<Home> Logger
 
 <PageTitle>@L["App.Title"] · @L["Nav.Dashboard"]</PageTitle>
 
@@ -15,10 +17,13 @@
     <hr class="m-rule--double" />
 
     <div class="m-grid--three m-rise m-rise-2">
-        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Events"]" Value="@_eventsTracked.ToString("N0")" Delta="+12%" />
-        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Snapshots"]" Value="@_snapshotsToday.ToString("N0")" Delta="+318" />
-        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Anomalies"]" Value="@_anomalies.ToString()" Delta="3 NEW" Anomaly="true" />
-        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Coverage"]" Value="4" Delta="BSK · FBL · TNS · HKY" />
+        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Events"]" Value="@_summary.EventsTracked.ToString("N0")" />
+        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Snapshots"]" Value="@_summary.SnapshotsToday.ToString("N0")" />
+        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Anomalies"]"
+                  Value="@_summary.AnomaliesTotal.ToString("N0")"
+                  Delta="@AnomaliesDelta"
+                  Anomaly="true" />
+        <StatCard Label="@L["Home.Stat.Coverage"]" Value="@_summary.SportsCovered.ToString()" />
     </div>
 
     <div class="m-grid--asym m-rise m-rise-3" style="margin-top: var(--m-space-6);">
@@ -30,49 +35,112 @@
                 @L["Anomaly.Kind.SuspensionFlip"]
             </h2>
 
-            <div style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-4);">
-                @foreach (var item in _placeholderFeed)
-                {
-                    <article style="display: grid; grid-template-columns: 80px 1fr auto; gap: var(--m-space-4); padding: var(--m-space-3) 0; border-top: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);">
-                        <div class="m-mono" style="font-size: 0.75rem; color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.1em;">
-                            @item.Time
-                        </div>
-                        <div>
-                            <div style="font-weight: 500;">@item.Match</div>
-                            <div style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); font-size: 0.8125rem;">@item.Detail</div>
-                        </div>
-                        <span class="m-anomaly">
-                            <span class="m-anomaly__pulse"></span>
-                            @($"{item.Score:0.00}")
-                        </span>
-                    </article>
-                }
-            </div>
+            @if (!_summary.HasAnyData)
+            {
+                @* First-run: nothing captured yet. Make the next step unmissable. *@
+                <div data-test="home-empty" style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-4); padding: var(--m-space-4) 0;">
+                    <span class="m-mono" style="font-size: 0.6875rem; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: var(--m-c-accent);">
+                        @L["Home.Empty.Heading"]
+                    </span>
+                    <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); max-width: 48ch; margin: 0;">
+                        @L["Home.Empty"]
+                    </p>
+                    <div>
+                        <a href="/settings" data-test="home-empty-cta"
+                           style="display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; padding: 10px 18px; border: 1px solid var(--m-c-accent); color: var(--m-c-accent); font-family: var(--m-font-mono); font-size: 0.75rem; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.12em; text-decoration: none;">
+                            @L["Home.Empty.Cta"] →
+                        </a>
+                    </div>
+                </div>
+            }
+            else if (_summary.LatestSignals.Count == 0)
+            {
+                @* Capturing, but the detector hasn't flagged anything yet. *@
+                <div data-test="home-no-signals" style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-3); padding: var(--m-space-3) 0; border-top: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);">
+                    <p style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); margin: 0;">@L["Home.NoSignals"]</p>
+                    <a href="/anomalies" style="font-family: var(--m-font-mono); font-size: 0.75rem; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.12em; color: var(--m-c-accent); text-decoration: none;">
+                        @L["Home.ViewAll"] →
+                    </a>
+                </div>
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                <div style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-4);">
+                    @foreach (var signal in _summary.LatestSignals)
+                    {
+                        <a href="@($"/anomalies/{signal.Id}")" data-test="home-signal"
+                           style="display: grid; grid-template-columns: 80px 1fr auto; gap: var(--m-space-4); padding: var(--m-space-3) 0; border-top: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule); text-decoration: none; color: inherit;">
+                            <div class="m-mono" style="font-size: 0.75rem; color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.1em;">
+                                @FormatSignalTime(signal.DetectedAt)
+                            </div>
+                            <div>
+                                <div style="font-weight: 500;">@signal.EventTitle</div>
+                                <div style="color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); font-size: 0.8125rem;">
+                                    @SportLabel(signal.Sport.Value) · @SeverityLabel(signal.Severity)
+                                </div>
+                            </div>
+                            <span class="m-anomaly">
+                                <span class="m-anomaly__pulse"></span>
+                                @signal.Score.ToString("0.00", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)
+                            </span>
+                        </a>
+                    }
+                </div>
 
-            <div style="margin-top: var(--m-space-5); padding-top: var(--m-space-3); border-top: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule); color: var(--m-c-ink-soft); font-size: 0.8125rem;">
-                @L["Home.Empty"]
-            </div>
+                <div style="margin-top: var(--m-space-5); padding-top: var(--m-space-3); border-top: 1px solid var(--m-c-rule);">
+                    <a href="/anomalies" style="font-family: var(--m-font-mono); font-size: 0.75rem; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.12em; color: var(--m-c-accent); text-decoration: none;">
+                        @L["Home.ViewAll"] →
+                    </a>
+                </div>
+            }
         </div>
 
         <aside class="m-card m-card--accented">
             <span class="m-kicker">@L["Home.Section.Pipeline"]</span>
             <ol style="list-style: none; padding: 0; margin: var(--m-space-4) 0 0; display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-3); counter-reset: m-step;">
-                <PipelineStep Index="01" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step1"]" Status="ok" />
-                <PipelineStep Index="02" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step2"]" Status="ok" />
-                <PipelineStep Index="03" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step3"]" Status="warn" />
-                <PipelineStep Index="04" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step4"]" Status="idle" />
+                <PipelineStep Index="01" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step1"]" Status="@_summary.ScheduleStatus" />
+                <PipelineStep Index="02" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step2"]" Status="@_summary.SnapshotStatus" />
+                <PipelineStep Index="03" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step3"]" Status="@_summary.DetectorStatus" />
+                <PipelineStep Index="04" Label="@L["Home.Pipeline.Step4"]" Status="@_summary.ExportStatus" />
             </ol>
         </aside>
     </div>
 </section>
 
 @code {
-    // Mock data — Phase 6+ will replace with live queries.
-    private readonly int _eventsTracked = 0;
-    private readonly int _snapshotsToday = 0;
-    private readonly int _anomalies = 0;
+    private DashboardSummary _summary = DashboardSummary.Empty;
 
-    private record FeedItem(string Time, string Match, string Detail, decimal Score);
+    private string? AnomaliesDelta => _summary.AnomaliesToday > 0
+        ? string.Format(CultureInfo.CurrentCulture, L["Home.Stat.NewToday"], _summary.AnomaliesToday)
+        : null;
 
-    private readonly List<FeedItem> _placeholderFeed = new();
+    protected override async Task OnInitializedAsync()
+    {
+        try
+        {
+            _summary = await Dashboard.GetAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+        }
+        catch (Exception ex)
+        {
+            // Dashboard is read-only chrome; on failure keep the empty summary and log.
+            Logger.LogError(ex, "Home: failed to load dashboard summary.");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private string FormatSignalTime(DateTimeOffset at)
+    {
+        var moscow = at.ToOffset(MoscowTime.Offset);
+        return moscow.Date == MoscowTime.Now.Date
+            ? moscow.ToString("HH:mm", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)
+            : moscow.ToString("dd MMM", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+    }
+
+    private string SportLabel(int code) => SportLabels.Resolve(L, code);
+
+    private string SeverityLabel(AnomalySeverity severity) => severity switch
+    {
+        AnomalySeverity.High => L["Anomaly.Severity.High"],
+        AnomalySeverity.Medium => L["Anomaly.Severity.Medium"],
+        _ => L["Anomaly.Severity.Low"],
+    };
 }

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Settings.razor

@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@
             <Field Label="@L["Settings.Scraping.RetryBaseDelayMs"]">
                 <MudNumericField T="int" @bind-Value="_scraping.RetryPolicy.BaseDelayMs" Min="100" Max="60000" Variant="Variant.Outlined" />
             </Field>
-            <Field Label="@L["Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl"]">
+            <Field Label="@L["Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl"]" Hint="@L["Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl.Hint"]">
                 <MudTextField T="string" @bind-Value="_scraping.BaseUrl" Variant="Variant.Outlined" />
             </Field>
             <Field Label="@L["Settings.Scraping.RequestTimeoutSeconds"]">
@@ -242,6 +242,20 @@
             }
         }
 
+        if (payload is ScrapingSettingsForm scraping
+            && !(Uri.TryCreate(scraping.BaseUrl, UriKind.Absolute, out var baseUri)
+                 && (baseUri.Scheme == Uri.UriSchemeHttp || baseUri.Scheme == Uri.UriSchemeHttps)))
+        {
+            Snackbar.Add(L["Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl.Invalid"], Severity.Error);
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (payload is WorkerOptions workers && !IsPlausibleCron(workers.UpcomingScheduleCron))
+        {
+            Snackbar.Add(L["Settings.Workers.Cron.Invalid"], Severity.Error);
+            return;
+        }
+
         var confirmed = await ConfirmAsync();
         if (!confirmed)
         {
@@ -260,6 +274,15 @@
         }
     }
 
+    // Lightweight 5- or 6-field cron sanity check — avoids a Cronos dependency in the
+    // UI layer; the worker still does the authoritative parse at startup.
+    private static bool IsPlausibleCron(string? expression)
+    {
+        if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(expression)) return false;
+        var fields = expression.Split(' ', StringSplitOptions.RemoveEmptyEntries);
+        return fields.Length is 5 or 6;
+    }
+
     private async Task ResetSectionAsync(string section)
     {
         var confirmed = await ConfirmAsync();
@@ -282,13 +305,6 @@
 
     private async Task<bool> ConfirmAsync()
     {
-        var parameters = new DialogParameters
-        {
-            ["ContentText"] = L["Settings.Confirm.Body"].Value,
-            ["ButtonText"] = L["Settings.Action.Save"].Value,
-            ["CancelText"] = L["Common.Cancel"].Value,
-        };
-
         var result = await Dialogs.ShowMessageBox(
             title: L["Settings.Confirm.Title"],
             message: L["Settings.Confirm.Body"],

src/Marathon.UI/Pages/Shared/EventListShell.razor

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@
 @using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId
 @implements IDisposable
 @inject IStringLocalizer<SharedResource> L
+@inject ILogger<EventListShell> Logger
 
 <section class="m-shell">
     <header class="m-rise m-rise-1" style="display: grid; gap: var(--m-space-3); max-width: 880px;">
@@ -364,7 +365,11 @@
 
     private void StartTimer()
     {
-        _refreshTimer?.Dispose();
+        if (_refreshTimer is not null)
+        {
+            _refreshTimer.Elapsed -= OnRefreshTimerElapsed;
+            _refreshTimer.Dispose();
+        }
         var interval = Math.Max(5, AutoRefreshSeconds) * 1000.0;
         _refreshTimer = new System.Timers.Timer(interval) { AutoReset = true };
         _refreshTimer.Elapsed += OnRefreshTimerElapsed;
@@ -383,10 +388,11 @@
         {
             await InvokeAsync(LoadAsync);
         }
-        catch
+        catch (Exception ex)
         {
-            // Swallowed — LoadAsync already handles its own errors; this catch
-            // is the last line of defense for InvokeAsync itself.
+            // Last line of defense for InvokeAsync itself — LoadAsync handles its
+            // own errors. Log rather than silently dropping the failure.
+            Logger.LogError(ex, "EventListShell ({Surface}): auto-refresh tick failed.", Surface);
         }
     }
 
@@ -414,9 +420,10 @@
         {
             // Swallow — superseded by a newer load.
         }
-        catch
+        catch (Exception ex)
         {
-            // Hide errors from the UI; Phase 9 will add a snackbar.
+            // Degrade gracefully (clear the rows) but record the failure for diagnosis.
+            Logger.LogError(ex, "EventListShell ({Surface}): failed to load event rows.", Surface);
             _rows = new List<EventListItem>();
         }
         finally
@@ -523,7 +530,11 @@
 
     public void Dispose()
     {
-        _refreshTimer?.Dispose();
+        if (_refreshTimer is not null)
+        {
+            _refreshTimer.Elapsed -= OnRefreshTimerElapsed;
+            _refreshTimer.Dispose();
+        }
         _searchCts?.Cancel();
         _searchCts?.Dispose();
         _loadCts?.Cancel();

src/Marathon.UI/Resources/SharedResource.en.resx

@@ -64,6 +64,7 @@
   <data name="Nav.Anomalies"><value>Anomalies</value></data>
   <data name="Nav.Results"><value>Results</value></data>
   <data name="Nav.Settings"><value>Settings</value></data>
+  <data name="Nav.Export"><value>Export</value></data>
 
   <data name="Home.Kicker"><value>Briefing</value></data>
   <data name="Home.Title"><value>Hunting odds-flip anomalies</value></data>
@@ -79,6 +80,14 @@
   <data name="Home.Pipeline.Step3"><value>Flip detector</value></data>
   <data name="Home.Pipeline.Step4"><value>XLSX export</value></data>
   <data name="Home.Empty"><value>No data yet. Enable the background pollers in Settings to start the feed.</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.Empty.Heading"><value>Nothing captured yet</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.Empty.Cta"><value>Open Settings</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.NoSignals"><value>Capturing lines — no flips flagged yet.</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.ViewAll"><value>View all signals</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.Stat.NewToday"><value>{0} new today</value></data>
+  <data name="Scraping.On"><value>Capturing</value></data>
+  <data name="Scraping.Off"><value>Paused</value></data>
+  <data name="Scraping.Aria"><value>Data capture status</value></data>
 
   <data name="Settings.Kicker"><value>Configuration</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Title"><value>Settings</value></data>
@@ -107,6 +116,9 @@
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.RateLimitRps"><value>Rate limit (RPS)</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.RateLimitRps.Hint"><value>Requests per second. 1 is recommended.</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl"><value>Base URL</value></data>
+  <data name="Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl.Hint"><value>Must be an absolute http(s) URL, e.g. https://www.marathonbet.by</value></data>
+  <data name="Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl.Invalid"><value>Base URL must be an absolute http(s) address.</value></data>
+  <data name="Settings.Workers.Cron.Invalid"><value>Schedule must be a 5- or 6-field cron expression.</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.RequestTimeoutSeconds"><value>Request timeout (sec)</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.UsePlaywright"><value>Use Playwright</value></data>
 
@@ -154,6 +166,7 @@
 
   <data name="Anomaly.Live"><value>Anomaly</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Kind.SuspensionFlip"><value>Suspension flip</value></data>
+  <data name="Anomaly.Kind.SteamMove"><value>Steam move</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Score"><value>Confidence</value></data>
 
   <!-- Phase 7 — Anomaly feed UI -->
@@ -181,6 +194,7 @@
   <data name="Anomaly.Evidence.FavouriteSwap"><value>Favourite swap</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.EvidenceTitle"><value>Evidence timeline</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.LinkBackToEvent"><value>Open event</value></data>
+  <data name="Action.LogBet"><value>Log bet</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.BackToFeed"><value>Back to feed</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.NotFound"><value>Anomaly not found — it may have been pruned.</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Empty.NoneInRange"><value>No anomalies match the current filters. Loosen the severity threshold or widen the date range.</value></data>
@@ -254,6 +268,9 @@
   <data name="Export.Submit"><value>Export</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Cancel"><value>Cancel</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Success"><value>Export saved to {0}</value></data>
+  <data name="Export.Hub.Lede"><value>Export captured odds snapshots to an Excel workbook for any date range — no need to open a specific event first.</value></data>
+  <data name="Export.Hub.Action"><value>Configure export</value></data>
+  <data name="Export.Hub.FilenameHint"><value>Saved as Marathon_&lt;from&gt;_to_&lt;to&gt;.xlsx in the configured export directory.</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Error.MissingDates"><value>Pick a start and end date.</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Error.InvalidRange"><value>End date must be on or after the start date.</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Error.Failed"><value>Export failed.</value></data>
@@ -305,4 +322,172 @@
   <data name="Results.Loader.Progress.Failed"><value>Failed</value></data>
   <data name="Results.Loader.Summary.Format"><value>Loaded {0}, skipped {1}, processed {2} total.</value></data>
   <data name="Results.Loader.Empty.NoCandidates"><value>No events to load in this range.</value></data>
+
+  <data name="Nav.Insights"><value>Insights</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Kicker"><value>Calibration</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Title"><value>Did the flips predict the winner?</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Lede"><value>Every persisted suspension-flip anomaly joined against the final event result. The hit rate tells you whether the post-flip favourite is the side that actually won — the only metric that says the detector is doing its job.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.HitRate"><value>Hit rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.HitRate.Hint"><value>Post-flip favourite won.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Resolved"><value>Resolved</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Resolved.Hint"><value>Anomalies with a graded event.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Unresolved"><value>Unresolved</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Unresolved.Hint"><value>Awaiting event result.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Hits"><value>Hits</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Misses"><value>Misses</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Total"><value>Total anomalies</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.BySeverity"><value>By severity</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.BySport"><value>By sport</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.ByScore"><value>By confidence score</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.Resolved"><value>Resolved anomalies</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.Unresolved"><value>Awaiting results</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.DetectedAt"><value>Detected</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Match"><value>Match</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Sport"><value>Sport</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Score"><value>Score</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.PreFavourite"><value>Pre-flip pick</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.PostFavourite"><value>Post-flip pick</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Winner"><value>Actual winner</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Outcome"><value>Verdict</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Bucket"><value>Bucket</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.HitRate"><value>Hit rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.HitsOfTotal"><value>Hits / total</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Outcome.Hit"><value>Hit</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Outcome.Miss"><value>Miss</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Outcome.Unresolved"><value>Pending</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Side1"><value>Side 1</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Side2"><value>Side 2</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Draw"><value>Draw</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Unknown"><value>—</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Empty.None"><value>No anomalies have been recorded yet. Once the detector flags one and the matching event finishes, its verdict will appear here.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Empty.NoneResolved"><value>Anomalies exist but no matching events have been graded yet. Run the results loader or wait for matches to complete.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Action.Refresh"><value>Refresh</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Action.OpenAnomaly"><value>Open</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Bucket.NotApplicable"><value>—</value></data>
+
+  <data name="Nav.MyBets"><value>My bets</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kicker"><value>Journal</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Title"><value>Your bets and CLV</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Lede"><value>Every wager you've recorded, graded against final results and scored against the closing line. Positive CLV is the leading indicator that says you're consistently beating the market.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Roi"><value>ROI</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Roi.Hint"><value>Net profit ÷ total staked.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.StrikeRate"><value>Strike rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.StrikeRate.Hint"><value>Wins ÷ (wins + losses).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.AvgClv"><value>Avg CLV</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.AvgClv.Hint"><value>Mean closing-line implied-probability gain.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.NetProfit"><value>Net profit</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.NetProfit.Hint"><value>Returns minus stakes (resolved bets).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.TotalBets"><value>Total bets</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Pending"><value>Pending</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Won"><value>Won</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Lost"><value>Lost</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Void"><value>Void</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Section.Add"><value>Record a bet</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Section.List"><value>Bet journal</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Refresh"><value>Refresh</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Resolve"><value>Resolve pending</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Submit"><value>Record bet</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Delete"><value>Delete</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Confirm"><value>Confirm</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Cancel"><value>Cancel</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.EventId"><value>Event ID</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.EventId.Hint"><value>Numeric ID from the event detail URL.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.FindEvent"><value>Find event</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.FindEvent.Placeholder"><value>Search by team name…</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.FindEvent.Hint"><value>Pick an upcoming event to fill the ID, or type it below.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Type"><value>Bet type</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Side"><value>Side</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Value"><value>Threshold</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Value.Hint"><value>Handicap or total line (e.g. -1.5, 2.5).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Rate"><value>Taken rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Stake"><value>Stake</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Notes"><value>Notes</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Notes.Placeholder"><value>Strategy tag, bookmaker, or anything you want to remember…</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.Win"><value>Win</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.Draw"><value>Draw</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.WinFora"><value>Handicap</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.Total"><value>Total</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Side1"><value>Side 1</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Side2"><value>Side 2</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Draw"><value>Draw</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Less"><value>Under</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.More"><value>Over</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Pending"><value>Pending</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Won"><value>Won</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Lost"><value>Lost</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Void"><value>Void</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.PlacedAt"><value>Placed</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Match"><value>Match</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Selection"><value>Selection</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Stake"><value>Stake</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Rate"><value>Rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Profit"><value>P&amp;L</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Clv"><value>CLV</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Outcome"><value>Outcome</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Empty.None"><value>No bets recorded yet. Use the form above to log a wager — once the event finishes the journal will auto-grade it and compute closing-line value against the latest pre-match snapshot.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Empty.NotApplicable"><value>—</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Error.Generic"><value>Failed to save bet — check the event ID and try again.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Submitted"><value>Bet recorded.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Title"><value>Stake helper (¼-Kelly)</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Bankroll"><value>Bankroll</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Probability"><value>Win probability (%)</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Suggestion"><value>Suggested stake: {0:0.00}</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Apply"><value>Apply</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.NoEdge"><value>No positive edge at this price.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Hint"><value>Enter bankroll + win probability for a ¼-Kelly stake.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Resolve.None"><value>No pending bets needed grading.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Resolve.Done"><value>Graded {0} pending bet(s).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Confirm.Delete"><value>Delete this bet permanently?</value></data>
+
+  <data name="Nav.Backtest"><value>Backtest</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Kicker"><value>Simulator</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Title"><value>Replay the detector against history</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Lede"><value>Run a hypothetical strategy over every anomaly the detector has flagged. Choose a confidence threshold and a staking rule — the simulator settles every bet against the actual event result, compounds bankroll, and reports the headline numbers you need to judge edge.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Strategy"><value>Strategy</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Headline"><value>Result</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Equity"><value>Equity curve</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Trace"><value>Trade trace</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.Bankroll"><value>Starting bankroll</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.From"><value>From date</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.To"><value>To date</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.DateRange.Hint"><value>Leave both empty to backtest every graded anomaly.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.MinScore"><value>Min anomaly score</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.MinScore.Hint"><value>Only bet anomalies at or above this confidence.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.StakeRule"><value>Staking rule</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.FlatStake"><value>Flat stake</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.PercentOfBankroll"><value>Percent of bankroll</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.KellyFraction"><value>Kelly fraction</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.KellyFraction.Hint"><value>0.25 (quarter-Kelly) is the conservative default.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.StakeRule.Flat"><value>Flat</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll"><value>% of bankroll</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.StakeRule.Kelly"><value>Kelly</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Action.Run"><value>Run simulation</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Action.Running"><value>Simulating…</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Action.Cancel"><value>Cancel</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.FinalBankroll"><value>Final bankroll</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.NetProfit"><value>Net profit</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Roi"><value>ROI</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.MaxDrawdown"><value>Max drawdown</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.BetsPlaced"><value>Bets placed</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Wins"><value>Wins</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Losses"><value>Losses</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Skipped"><value>Skipped</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.MaxWinStreak"><value>Max win streak</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.MaxLossStreak"><value>Max loss streak</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.TotalStaked"><value>Total staked</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.TotalReturned"><value>Total returned</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.DetectedAt"><value>Detected</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Match"><value>Match</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Score"><value>Score</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Pick"><value>Pick</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Rate"><value>Rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Stake"><value>Stake</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Payout"><value>Payout</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Bankroll"><value>Bankroll</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Outcome"><value>Outcome</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Outcome.Win"><value>Win</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Outcome.Loss"><value>Loss</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Empty.NoData"><value>No graded anomalies to simulate yet. Run the results loader so the detector has outcomes to replay against.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Empty.NoBetsPlaced"><value>The strategy placed zero bets — try lowering the score threshold, or switch staking rule.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Error.Generic"><value>Simulation failed — check the form values and try again.</value></data>
 </root>

src/Marathon.UI/Resources/SharedResource.ru.resx

@@ -66,6 +66,7 @@
   <data name="Nav.Anomalies"><value>Аномалии</value></data>
   <data name="Nav.Results"><value>Результаты</value></data>
   <data name="Nav.Settings"><value>Настройки</value></data>
+  <data name="Nav.Export"><value>Экспорт</value></data>
 
   <!-- Home / Dashboard -->
   <data name="Home.Kicker"><value>Сводка</value></data>
@@ -82,6 +83,14 @@
   <data name="Home.Pipeline.Step3"><value>Детектор разворота</value></data>
   <data name="Home.Pipeline.Step4"><value>Экспорт XLSX</value></data>
   <data name="Home.Empty"><value>Пока пусто. Запустите фоновые сборщики на странице «Настройки», чтобы пошёл поток данных.</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.Empty.Heading"><value>Пока ничего не собрано</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.Empty.Cta"><value>Открыть настройки</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.NoSignals"><value>Идёт сбор линий — разворотов пока нет.</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.ViewAll"><value>Все сигналы</value></data>
+  <data name="Home.Stat.NewToday"><value>{0} новых сегодня</value></data>
+  <data name="Scraping.On"><value>Идёт сбор</value></data>
+  <data name="Scraping.Off"><value>Пауза</value></data>
+  <data name="Scraping.Aria"><value>Статус сбора данных</value></data>
 
   <!-- Settings — sections -->
   <data name="Settings.Kicker"><value>Конфигурация</value></data>
@@ -112,6 +121,9 @@
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.RateLimitRps"><value>Лимит RPS</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.RateLimitRps.Hint"><value>Запросов в секунду. Рекомендовано 1.</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl"><value>Базовый URL</value></data>
+  <data name="Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl.Hint"><value>Должен быть абсолютный http(s)-адрес, например https://www.marathonbet.by</value></data>
+  <data name="Settings.Scraping.BaseUrl.Invalid"><value>Базовый URL должен быть абсолютным http(s)-адресом.</value></data>
+  <data name="Settings.Workers.Cron.Invalid"><value>Расписание должно быть cron-выражением из 5 или 6 полей.</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.RequestTimeoutSeconds"><value>Тайм-аут запроса (сек)</value></data>
   <data name="Settings.Scraping.UsePlaywright"><value>Использовать Playwright</value></data>
 
@@ -167,6 +179,7 @@
   <!-- Anomaly (Phase 7 placeholders) -->
   <data name="Anomaly.Live"><value>Аномалия</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Kind.SuspensionFlip"><value>Разворот после заморозки</value></data>
+  <data name="Anomaly.Kind.SteamMove"><value>Движение линии</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Score"><value>Уверенность</value></data>
 
   <!-- Phase 7 — Лента аномалий -->
@@ -194,6 +207,7 @@
   <data name="Anomaly.Evidence.FavouriteSwap"><value>Смена фаворита</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.EvidenceTitle"><value>Хроника свидетельств</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.LinkBackToEvent"><value>Открыть событие</value></data>
+  <data name="Action.LogBet"><value>Записать ставку</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.BackToFeed"><value>К ленте</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Detail.NotFound"><value>Аномалия не найдена — возможно, она была удалена.</value></data>
   <data name="Anomaly.Empty.NoneInRange"><value>Под текущие фильтры аномалии не попадают. Снизьте порог важности или расширьте диапазон дат.</value></data>
@@ -267,6 +281,9 @@
   <data name="Export.Submit"><value>Экспорт</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Cancel"><value>Отмена</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Success"><value>Файл сохранён в {0}</value></data>
+  <data name="Export.Hub.Lede"><value>Экспорт собранных снимков коэффициентов в книгу Excel за любой диапазон дат — без необходимости открывать конкретное событие.</value></data>
+  <data name="Export.Hub.Action"><value>Настроить экспорт</value></data>
+  <data name="Export.Hub.FilenameHint"><value>Сохраняется как Marathon_&lt;от&gt;_to_&lt;до&gt;.xlsx в указанной папке экспорта.</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Error.MissingDates"><value>Выберите даты начала и конца.</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Error.InvalidRange"><value>Дата конца должна быть не раньше даты начала.</value></data>
   <data name="Export.Error.Failed"><value>Экспорт не удался.</value></data>
@@ -318,4 +335,172 @@
   <data name="Results.Loader.Progress.Failed"><value>Ошибка</value></data>
   <data name="Results.Loader.Summary.Format"><value>Загружено {0}, пропущено {1}, всего обработано {2}.</value></data>
   <data name="Results.Loader.Empty.NoCandidates"><value>Нет событий для загрузки в этом диапазоне.</value></data>
+
+  <data name="Nav.Insights"><value>Калибровка</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Kicker"><value>Калибровка</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Title"><value>Угадывают ли флипы победителя?</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Lede"><value>Каждая зафиксированная аномалия suspension-flip сопоставлена с итогом матча. Hit rate показывает, оказался ли пост-флип фаворит реальным победителем — это и есть единственная метрика, говорящая, что детектор работает.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.HitRate"><value>Hit rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.HitRate.Hint"><value>Пост-флип фаворит выиграл.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Resolved"><value>Подтверждены</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Resolved.Hint"><value>Аномалии с известным итогом.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Unresolved"><value>Без результата</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Unresolved.Hint"><value>Ждём окончания матча.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Hits"><value>Попадания</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Misses"><value>Промахи</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Stat.Total"><value>Всего аномалий</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.BySeverity"><value>По уровню</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.BySport"><value>По виду спорта</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.ByScore"><value>По уверенности</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.Resolved"><value>Подтверждённые аномалии</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Section.Unresolved"><value>Ожидают итога</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.DetectedAt"><value>Замечено</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Match"><value>Матч</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Sport"><value>Вид спорта</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Score"><value>Score</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.PreFavourite"><value>До флипа</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.PostFavourite"><value>После флипа</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Winner"><value>Победитель</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Outcome"><value>Вердикт</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.Bucket"><value>Группа</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.HitRate"><value>Hit rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Column.HitsOfTotal"><value>Попаданий / всего</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Outcome.Hit"><value>Попадание</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Outcome.Miss"><value>Промах</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Outcome.Unresolved"><value>Ожидает</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Side1"><value>Сторона 1</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Side2"><value>Сторона 2</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Draw"><value>Ничья</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Side.Unknown"><value>—</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Empty.None"><value>Аномалии ещё не зафиксированы. Когда детектор отметит первую и матч завершится, его вердикт появится здесь.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Empty.NoneResolved"><value>Аномалии есть, но ни у одного из их событий нет результата. Запустите загрузчик результатов или подождите окончания матчей.</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Action.Refresh"><value>Обновить</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Action.OpenAnomaly"><value>Открыть</value></data>
+  <data name="Insights.Bucket.NotApplicable"><value>—</value></data>
+
+  <data name="Nav.MyBets"><value>Мои ставки</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kicker"><value>Журнал</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Title"><value>Ваши ставки и CLV</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Lede"><value>Каждая зафиксированная ставка с автоматическим расчётом результата и оценкой против линии закрытия. Положительный CLV — главный долгосрочный индикатор того, что вы стабильно обыгрываете рынок.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Roi"><value>ROI</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Roi.Hint"><value>Чистая прибыль ÷ сумма ставок.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.StrikeRate"><value>Strike rate</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.StrikeRate.Hint"><value>Победы ÷ (победы + поражения).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.AvgClv"><value>Средний CLV</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.AvgClv.Hint"><value>Средний прирост вероятности к линии закрытия.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.NetProfit"><value>Чистая прибыль</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.NetProfit.Hint"><value>Возвраты минус ставки (учтены сыгравшие).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.TotalBets"><value>Всего ставок</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Pending"><value>В ожидании</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Won"><value>Победа</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Lost"><value>Проигрыш</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Stat.Void"><value>Возврат</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Section.Add"><value>Записать ставку</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Section.List"><value>Журнал ставок</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Refresh"><value>Обновить</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Resolve"><value>Рассчитать ожидающие</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Submit"><value>Записать</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Delete"><value>Удалить</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Confirm"><value>Подтвердить</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Action.Cancel"><value>Отмена</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.EventId"><value>ID события</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.EventId.Hint"><value>Числовой ID из URL детальной страницы.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.FindEvent"><value>Найти событие</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.FindEvent.Placeholder"><value>Поиск по названию команды…</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.FindEvent.Hint"><value>Выберите предстоящее событие, чтобы подставить ID, или введите его ниже.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Type"><value>Тип ставки</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Side"><value>Сторона</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Value"><value>Порог</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Value.Hint"><value>Гандикап или тотал (например −1.5, 2.5).</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Rate"><value>Кэф на момент ставки</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Stake"><value>Сумма ставки</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Notes"><value>Заметки</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Field.Notes.Placeholder"><value>Тег стратегии, букмекер или что угодно для памяти…</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.Win"><value>Победа</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.Draw"><value>Ничья</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.WinFora"><value>Фора</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.BetType.Total"><value>Тотал</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Side1"><value>Сторона 1</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Side2"><value>Сторона 2</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Draw"><value>Ничья</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.Less"><value>Меньше</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Side.More"><value>Больше</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Pending"><value>Ожидает</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Won"><value>Победа</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Lost"><value>Проигрыш</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Outcome.Void"><value>Возврат</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.PlacedAt"><value>Размещено</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Match"><value>Матч</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Selection"><value>Выбор</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Stake"><value>Ставка</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Rate"><value>Кэф</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Profit"><value>P&amp;L</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Clv"><value>CLV</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Column.Outcome"><value>Итог</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Empty.None"><value>Ставок пока нет. Запишите свою ставку через форму выше — после окончания матча журнал авто-проставит результат и посчитает CLV против последнего пре-матч снимка.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Empty.NotApplicable"><value>—</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Error.Generic"><value>Не удалось сохранить ставку — проверьте ID события и повторите.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Submitted"><value>Ставка записана.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Title"><value>Калькулятор ставки (¼-Келли)</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Bankroll"><value>Банкролл</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Probability"><value>Вероятность выигрыша (%)</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Suggestion"><value>Рекомендуемая ставка: {0:0.00}</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Apply"><value>Применить</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.NoEdge"><value>Нет преимущества при этом коэффициенте.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Kelly.Hint"><value>Введите банкролл и вероятность для ставки по ¼-Келли.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Resolve.None"><value>Ожидающих ставок к расчёту нет.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Resolve.Done"><value>Рассчитано ожидающих: {0}.</value></data>
+  <data name="Journal.Confirm.Delete"><value>Удалить эту ставку безвозвратно?</value></data>
+
+  <data name="Nav.Backtest"><value>Бэктест</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Kicker"><value>Симулятор</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Title"><value>Прогон детектора по истории</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Lede"><value>Запустите гипотетическую стратегию на всех зафиксированных аномалиях. Выберите порог уверенности и правило стейкинга — симулятор разыграет каждую ставку против реального исхода, нарастит банк и покажет ключевые метрики для оценки преимущества.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Strategy"><value>Стратегия</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Headline"><value>Результат</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Equity"><value>Кривая банка</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Section.Trace"><value>Хронология ставок</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.Bankroll"><value>Стартовый банк</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.From"><value>Дата с</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.To"><value>Дата по</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.DateRange.Hint"><value>Оставьте оба поля пустыми, чтобы прогнать все оценённые аномалии.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.MinScore"><value>Мин. score аномалии</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.MinScore.Hint"><value>Ставим только при уверенности не ниже этого порога.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.StakeRule"><value>Правило стейкинга</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.FlatStake"><value>Фикс. ставка</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.PercentOfBankroll"><value>Процент от банка</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.KellyFraction"><value>Доля Келли</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Field.KellyFraction.Hint"><value>0,25 (четверть-Келли) — консервативный дефолт.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.StakeRule.Flat"><value>Фиксированная</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll"><value>% от банка</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.StakeRule.Kelly"><value>Келли</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Action.Run"><value>Запустить</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Action.Running"><value>Симуляция…</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Action.Cancel"><value>Отмена</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.FinalBankroll"><value>Итоговый банк</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.NetProfit"><value>Чистая прибыль</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Roi"><value>ROI</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.MaxDrawdown"><value>Макс. просадка</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.BetsPlaced"><value>Поставлено</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Wins"><value>Победы</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Losses"><value>Поражения</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.Skipped"><value>Пропущено</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.MaxWinStreak"><value>Макс. серия побед</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.MaxLossStreak"><value>Макс. серия пораж.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.TotalStaked"><value>Всего поставлено</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Stat.TotalReturned"><value>Всего возвращено</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.DetectedAt"><value>Замечено</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Match"><value>Матч</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Score"><value>Score</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Pick"><value>Выбор</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Rate"><value>Кэф</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Stake"><value>Ставка</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Payout"><value>Выплата</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Bankroll"><value>Банк</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Column.Outcome"><value>Исход</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Outcome.Win"><value>Победа</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Outcome.Loss"><value>Проигрыш</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Empty.NoData"><value>Аномалий с результатом ещё нет. Запустите загрузчик результатов, чтобы симулятору было на чём прогоняться.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Empty.NoBetsPlaced"><value>Стратегия не сделала ни одной ставки — снизьте порог score или поменяйте правило стейкинга.</value></data>
+  <data name="Backtest.Error.Generic"><value>Симуляция упала — проверьте параметры формы и повторите.</value></data>
 </root>

src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyBrowsingService.cs

@@ -28,10 +28,12 @@ public sealed class AnomalyBrowsingService : IAnomalyBrowsingService
     {
         ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(filter);
 
-        var all = await _anomalies.ListAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        // Date filter pushed to SQL; severity needs the parsed score and sport needs
+        // the event join, so those two stay in memory over the smaller returned set.
+        var all = await _anomalies.ListByDateRangeAsync(filter.From, filter.To, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
         if (all.Count == 0) return Array.Empty<AnomalyListItem>();
 
-        // Resolve event metadata in one pass — distinct EventIds only.
+        // Resolve event metadata in one batched pass — distinct EventIds only.
         var eventLookup = await BuildEventLookupAsync(all, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
 
         var items = new List<AnomalyListItem>(all.Count);
@@ -44,7 +46,7 @@ public sealed class AnomalyBrowsingService : IAnomalyBrowsingService
             }
         }
 
-        // Apply filters in-memory (small list, UI page).
+        // Remaining filters in-memory (page-sized set).
         IEnumerable<AnomalyListItem> filtered = items;
 
         if (filter.MinSeverity is { } minSeverity)
@@ -57,16 +59,6 @@ public sealed class AnomalyBrowsingService : IAnomalyBrowsingService
             filtered = filtered.Where(i => sports.Contains(i.Sport.Value));
         }
 
-        if (filter.From is { } from)
-        {
-            filtered = filtered.Where(i => i.DetectedAt >= from);
-        }
-
-        if (filter.To is { } to)
-        {
-            filtered = filtered.Where(i => i.DetectedAt <= to);
-        }
-
         return filtered
             .OrderByDescending(static i => i.DetectedAt)
             .ToList();
@@ -88,16 +80,9 @@ public sealed class AnomalyBrowsingService : IAnomalyBrowsingService
         return new AnomalyDetailVm(item, pre, post);
     }
 
-    public async Task<int> GetUnreadCountAsync(DateTimeOffset since, CancellationToken ct)
-    {
-        var all = await _anomalies.ListAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
-        var count = 0;
-        foreach (var anomaly in all)
-        {
-            if (anomaly.DetectedAt > since) count++;
-        }
-        return count;
-    }
+    public Task<int> GetUnreadCountAsync(DateTimeOffset since, CancellationToken ct)
+        // Server-side COUNT(*) — no longer materialises the table to count.
+        => _anomalies.CountSinceAsync(since, ct);
 
     public async Task<IReadOnlyList<int>> ListKnownSportCodesAsync(CancellationToken ct)
     {
@@ -125,14 +110,8 @@ public sealed class AnomalyBrowsingService : IAnomalyBrowsingService
             .Distinct()
             .ToList();
 
-        var dict = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, Event>(distinct.Count);
-        foreach (var eid in distinct)
-        {
-            ct.ThrowIfCancellationRequested();
-            var ev = await _events.GetAsync(eid, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
-            if (ev is not null) dict[eid] = ev;
-        }
-        return dict;
+        // Single batched query instead of one GetAsync per distinct event (N+1).
+        return await _events.GetManyAsync(distinct, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
     }
 
     private static bool TryProject(
@@ -151,7 +130,7 @@ public sealed class AnomalyBrowsingService : IAnomalyBrowsingService
         var country = ev?.CountryCode ?? string.Empty;
         var league = ev?.LeagueId ?? string.Empty;
         var title = ev is not null
-            ? $"{ev.Side1Name} vs {ev.Side2Name}"
+            ? ev.Title
             : anomaly.EventId.Value;
 
         var preSnap = ToSnapshot(dto.PreSuspension);

src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyInsightsService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Page-facing implementation of <see cref="IAnomalyInsightsService"/>. Runs
+/// the application use case and reshapes its output for the page — event title
+/// strings and severity buckets are computed once from the report's payload, so
+/// the service performs no repository I/O of its own.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class AnomalyInsightsService : IAnomalyInsightsService
+{
+    private readonly EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase _useCase;
+
+    public AnomalyInsightsService(EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase useCase)
+    {
+        _useCase = useCase ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(useCase));
+    }
+
+    public async Task<AnomalyInsightsVm> GetReportAsync(CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        var report = await _useCase.ExecuteAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        var resolvedRows = report.Resolved
+            .Select(r => ToRow(r, report.EventTitles))
+            .ToList();
+        var unresolvedRows = report.Unresolved
+            .Select(r => ToRow(r, report.EventTitles))
+            .ToList();
+
+        return new AnomalyInsightsVm(
+            TotalAnomalies: report.TotalAnomalies,
+            ResolvedCount: report.ResolvedCount,
+            UnresolvedCount: report.UnresolvedCount,
+            HitCount: report.HitCount,
+            MissCount: report.MissCount,
+            HitRate: report.HitRate,
+            BySeverity: report.BySeverity,
+            BySport: report.BySport,
+            ByScoreBin: report.ByScoreBin,
+            Resolved: resolvedRows,
+            Unresolved: unresolvedRows);
+    }
+
+    private static ResolvedAnomalyRow ToRow(
+        ResolvedAnomaly src,
+        IReadOnlyDictionary<DomainEventId, string> titles) =>
+        new(
+            AnomalyId: src.AnomalyId,
+            EventId: src.EventId,
+            EventTitle: titles.TryGetValue(src.EventId, out var t) ? t : src.EventId.Value,
+            DetectedAt: src.DetectedAt,
+            Score: src.Score,
+            Severity: AnomalySeverityRules.FromScore(src.Score),
+            Sport: src.Sport,
+            PreFlipFavourite: src.PreFlipFavourite,
+            PostFlipFavourite: src.PostFlipFavourite,
+            ActualWinner: src.ActualWinner,
+            Outcome: src.Outcome);
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyInsightsViewModels.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Reporting;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// UI-facing projection of <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeReport"/>. Adds a resolved
+/// event title and severity bucket per row so the page never has to round-trip
+/// to a repository.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed record AnomalyInsightsVm(
+    int TotalAnomalies,
+    int ResolvedCount,
+    int UnresolvedCount,
+    int HitCount,
+    int MissCount,
+    decimal? HitRate,
+    IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BySeverity,
+    IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> BySport,
+    IReadOnlyList<OutcomeBucket> ByScoreBin,
+    IReadOnlyList<ResolvedAnomalyRow> Resolved,
+    IReadOnlyList<ResolvedAnomalyRow> Unresolved);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// One row in the resolved / unresolved drill-down list — anomaly + outcome +
+/// pre-shaped event title for the link-back affordance.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed record ResolvedAnomalyRow(
+    Guid AnomalyId,
+    EventId EventId,
+    string EventTitle,
+    DateTimeOffset DetectedAt,
+    decimal Score,
+    AnomalySeverity Severity,
+    SportCode? Sport,
+    Side? PreFlipFavourite,
+    Side? PostFlipFavourite,
+    Side? ActualWinner,
+    AnomalyOutcomeKind Outcome);

src/Marathon.UI/Services/AnomalyViewModels.cs

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
 using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
 using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
 
@@ -83,12 +84,14 @@ public enum AnomalyFavourite
     None,
 }
 
-/// <summary>Helpers for severity bucketing.</summary>
+/// <summary>Helpers for severity bucketing. Thresholds come from
+/// <see cref="AnomalySeverityThresholds"/> so the UI badges and the
+/// Application-layer outcome report agree by construction.</summary>
 public static class AnomalySeverityRules
 {
-    public const decimal LowThreshold = 0.30m;
-    public const decimal MediumThreshold = 0.45m;
-    public const decimal HighThreshold = 0.60m;
+    public const decimal LowThreshold = AnomalySeverityThresholds.Low;
+    public const decimal MediumThreshold = AnomalySeverityThresholds.Medium;
+    public const decimal HighThreshold = AnomalySeverityThresholds.High;
 
     public static AnomalySeverity FromScore(decimal score) => score switch
     {

src/Marathon.UI/Services/BacktestService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Page-facing implementation of <see cref="IBacktestService"/>. The use case
+/// hands back per-event titles inside the result so the service does no
+/// repository I/O of its own.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class BacktestService : IBacktestService
+{
+    private readonly RunBacktestUseCase _useCase;
+
+    public BacktestService(RunBacktestUseCase useCase)
+    {
+        _useCase = useCase ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(useCase));
+    }
+
+    public async Task<BacktestVm> RunAsync(BacktestForm form, CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(form);
+
+        if (!form.IsValid(out var err))
+            throw new ArgumentException(err ?? "Invalid form.", nameof(form));
+
+        var result = await _useCase.ExecuteAsync(form.ToStrategy(), form.ToDateRange(), ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        var rows = result.Trace
+            .Select(t => new BacktestTraceRow(
+                Trace: t,
+                EventTitle: result.EventTitles.TryGetValue(t.EventId, out var title)
+                    ? title
+                    : t.EventId.Value))
+            .ToList();
+
+        var curve = result.Trace
+            .Select(t => new EquityPoint(t.DetectedAt, t.BankrollAfter))
+            .ToList();
+
+        return new BacktestVm(
+            StartingBankroll: result.StartingBankroll,
+            FinalBankroll: result.FinalBankroll,
+            NetProfit: result.NetProfit,
+            RoiPercent: result.RoiPercent,
+            TotalStaked: result.TotalStaked,
+            TotalReturned: result.TotalReturned,
+            MaxDrawdown: result.MaxDrawdown,
+            MaxDrawdownPercent: result.MaxDrawdownPercent,
+            BetsPlaced: result.BetsPlaced,
+            Wins: result.Wins,
+            Losses: result.Losses,
+            Skipped: result.Skipped,
+            SkippedByThreshold: result.SkippedByThreshold,
+            SkippedByDataQuality: result.SkippedByDataQuality,
+            SkippedByBankroll: result.SkippedByBankroll,
+            MaxWinStreak: result.MaxWinStreak,
+            MaxLossStreak: result.MaxLossStreak,
+            Trace: rows,
+            EquityCurve: curve);
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/BacktestViewModels.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Storage;
+using Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Form bound by the Backtest page. Loose-typed so MudBlazor fields can bind
+/// raw numerics; the service translates this into a domain
+/// <see cref="BacktestStrategy"/> after validation.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class BacktestForm
+{
+    public decimal StartingBankroll { get; set; } = 1000m;
+    public decimal MinScore { get; set; } = 0.45m;
+    public StakeRule StakeRule { get; set; } = StakeRule.Flat;
+    public decimal FlatStake { get; set; } = 50m;
+
+    /// <summary>Bound to the UI as a percentage 0–100; converted to a fraction before sim.</summary>
+    public decimal PercentOfBankrollPercent { get; set; } = 2m;
+
+    /// <summary>Bound to the UI as a percentage 0–100; converted to a fraction before sim.</summary>
+    public decimal KellyFractionPercent { get; set; } = 25m;
+
+    /// <summary>Optional inclusive date-range filter (Moscow dates). Both null = all anomalies.</summary>
+    public DateTime? From { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Optional inclusive date-range filter (Moscow dates). Both null = all anomalies.</summary>
+    public DateTime? To { get; set; }
+
+    public bool IsValid(out string? error)
+    {
+        if (StartingBankroll <= 0m) { error = "Bankroll must be positive."; return false; }
+        if (MinScore is < 0m or > 1m) { error = "Min score must be in [0, 1]."; return false; }
+        if (From is { } f && To is { } t && f.Date > t.Date)
+        { error = "From date must be on or before To date."; return false; }
+        switch (StakeRule)
+        {
+            case StakeRule.Flat:
+                if (FlatStake <= 0m) { error = "Flat stake must be positive."; return false; }
+                if (FlatStake > StartingBankroll) { error = "Flat stake exceeds starting bankroll."; return false; }
+                break;
+            case StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll:
+                if (PercentOfBankrollPercent is <= 0m or > 100m)
+                { error = "Percent of bankroll must be in (0, 100]."; return false; }
+                break;
+            case StakeRule.Kelly:
+                if (KellyFractionPercent is <= 0m or > 100m)
+                { error = "Kelly fraction must be in (0, 100]."; return false; }
+                break;
+        }
+        error = null;
+        return true;
+    }
+
+    public BacktestStrategy ToStrategy() =>
+        new(
+            StartingBankroll: StartingBankroll,
+            MinScore: MinScore,
+            StakeRule: StakeRule,
+            FlatStake: FlatStake,
+            PercentOfBankroll: PercentOfBankrollPercent / 100m,
+            KellyFraction: KellyFractionPercent / 100m);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The inclusive Moscow-day date range, or null when either bound is unset
+    /// (meaning: run over every graded anomaly).
+    /// </summary>
+    public DateRange? ToDateRange()
+    {
+        if (From is not { } from || To is not { } to)
+            return null;
+
+        return new DateRange(
+            new DateTimeOffset(from.Date, MoscowTime.Offset),
+            MoscowTime.EndOfMoscowDay(DateOnly.FromDateTime(to.Date)));
+    }
+}
+
+/// <summary>UI-facing projection of <see cref="BacktestResult"/>.</summary>
+public sealed record BacktestVm(
+    decimal StartingBankroll,
+    decimal FinalBankroll,
+    decimal NetProfit,
+    decimal? RoiPercent,
+    decimal TotalStaked,
+    decimal TotalReturned,
+    decimal MaxDrawdown,
+    decimal? MaxDrawdownPercent,
+    int BetsPlaced,
+    int Wins,
+    int Losses,
+    int Skipped,
+    int SkippedByThreshold,
+    int SkippedByDataQuality,
+    int SkippedByBankroll,
+    int MaxWinStreak,
+    int MaxLossStreak,
+    IReadOnlyList<BacktestTraceRow> Trace,
+    IReadOnlyList<EquityPoint> EquityCurve);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Trace row plus pre-shaped event title for the link-back affordance.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed record BacktestTraceRow(
+    BacktestTrace Trace,
+    string EventTitle);
+
+/// <summary>One point on the equity curve — bankroll over time.</summary>
+/// <param name="DetectedAt">When the bet would have been placed.</param>
+/// <param name="Bankroll">Bankroll after this bet settled.</param>
+public sealed record EquityPoint(DateTimeOffset DetectedAt, decimal Bankroll);

src/Marathon.UI/Services/BetJournalService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+using System.Globalization;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Storage;
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using DomainEventId = Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Page-facing implementation of <see cref="IBetJournalService"/>. Composes the
+/// four bet-journal use cases and joins event titles for the table rows.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class BetJournalService : IBetJournalService
+{
+    private readonly BuildBetJournalReportUseCase _build;
+    private readonly RecordPlacedBetUseCase _record;
+    private readonly ResolvePendingBetsUseCase _resolve;
+    private readonly DeletePlacedBetUseCase _delete;
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events;
+
+    public BetJournalService(
+        BuildBetJournalReportUseCase build,
+        RecordPlacedBetUseCase record,
+        ResolvePendingBetsUseCase resolve,
+        DeletePlacedBetUseCase delete,
+        IEventRepository events)
+    {
+        _build = build ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(build));
+        _record = record ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(record));
+        _resolve = resolve ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(resolve));
+        _delete = delete ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(delete));
+        _events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
+    }
+
+    public async Task<BetJournalVm> GetReportAsync(CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        var report = await _build.ExecuteAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        if (report.Bets.Count == 0)
+            return new BetJournalVm(report.Stats, Array.Empty<BetJournalRowVm>());
+
+        // Resolve event titles in one batched query — distinct ids only (was N+1).
+        // Missing events (pruned by snapshot retention) fall back to the raw id.
+        var distinctIds = report.Bets.Select(r => r.Bet.EventId).Distinct().ToList();
+        var events = await _events.GetManyAsync(distinctIds, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        var titles = new Dictionary<DomainEventId, string>(distinctIds.Count);
+        foreach (var id in distinctIds)
+        {
+            titles[id] = events.TryGetValue(id, out var ev)
+                ? ev.Title
+                : id.Value;
+        }
+
+        var rows = report.Bets
+            .Select(r => new BetJournalRowVm(
+                Id: r.Bet.Id,
+                EventTitle: titles.TryGetValue(r.Bet.EventId, out var t) ? t : r.Bet.EventId.Value,
+                Bet: r.Bet,
+                ClvProbabilityDelta: r.ClvProbabilityDelta))
+            .ToList();
+
+        return new BetJournalVm(report.Stats, rows);
+    }
+
+    public async Task<Guid> AddAsync(AddBetForm form, CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(form);
+
+        if (!form.IsValid(out var error))
+            throw new ArgumentException(error ?? "Invalid form.", nameof(form));
+
+        var selection = new Bet(
+            scope: MatchScope.Instance,
+            type: form.Type,
+            side: form.Side,
+            value: form.Value is { } v ? new OddsValue(v) : null,
+            rate: new OddsRate(form.Rate));
+
+        var bet = new PlacedBet(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: new DomainEventId(form.EventId.Trim()),
+            Selection: selection,
+            Stake: form.Stake,
+            PlacedAt: MoscowTime.Now,
+            Outcome: BetOutcome.Pending,
+            Notes: form.Notes);
+
+        var stored = await _record.ExecuteAsync(bet, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        return stored.Id;
+    }
+
+    public Task DeleteAsync(Guid betId, CancellationToken ct) =>
+        _delete.ExecuteAsync(betId, ct);
+
+    public Task<int> ResolvePendingAsync(CancellationToken ct) =>
+        _resolve.ExecuteAsync(ct);
+
+    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<EventOption>> GetUpcomingEventOptionsAsync(CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        // Generous betting window: recently started through a month out. Loaded once
+        // by the page; the autocomplete filters this list in memory per keystroke.
+        var now = MoscowTime.Now;
+        var range = new DateRange(now.AddDays(-7), now.AddDays(30));
+        var events = await _events.ListByDateRangeAsync(range, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        return events
+            .OrderBy(e => e.ScheduledAt)
+            .Select(e => new EventOption(
+                e.Id.Value,
+                string.Concat(e.Title, " · ", e.ScheduledAt.ToString("yyyy-MM-dd HH:mm", CultureInfo.InvariantCulture)),
+                e.ScheduledAt))
+            .ToList();
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/BetJournalViewModels.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Betting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Page-facing projection of <see cref="BetJournalReport"/>. Adds the
+/// pre-shaped event title per row so the Journal page never has to round-trip
+/// back to <see cref="Marathon.Application.Abstractions.IEventRepository"/>.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed record BetJournalVm(
+    BetJournalStats Stats,
+    IReadOnlyList<BetJournalRowVm> Bets);
+
+/// <summary>Row-level view model for the journal table.</summary>
+public sealed record BetJournalRowVm(
+    Guid Id,
+    string EventTitle,
+    PlacedBet Bet,
+    decimal? ClvProbabilityDelta);
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Data the Add-Bet form posts. Loose-typed so the form can bind raw inputs;
+/// <see cref="ToDomain"/> applies the same invariants as
+/// <see cref="Bet"/> / <see cref="PlacedBet"/> and surfaces validation errors
+/// as exceptions.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class AddBetForm
+{
+    public string EventId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Bet type enum value — defaults to Win.</summary>
+    public BetType Type { get; set; } = BetType.Win;
+
+    /// <summary>Side enum value — Win/Side1 default.</summary>
+    public Side Side { get; set; } = Side.Side1;
+
+    /// <summary>Handicap / total threshold; required for WinFora and Total.</summary>
+    public decimal? Value { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>The decimal odds the user took at placement.</summary>
+    public decimal Rate { get; set; } = 1.90m;
+
+    public decimal Stake { get; set; } = 100m;
+
+    public string? Notes { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Upper sanity caps so a typo cannot torch the KPI strip.</summary>
+    public const decimal MaxRate = 1000m;
+
+    /// <summary>Upper sanity cap on a single wager.</summary>
+    public const decimal MaxStake = 10_000_000m;
+
+    public bool IsValid(out string? error)
+    {
+        if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(EventId)) { error = "EventId is required."; return false; }
+        if (Stake <= 0m) { error = "Stake must be positive."; return false; }
+        if (Stake > MaxStake) { error = $"Stake must be at most {MaxStake:N0}."; return false; }
+        if (Rate < 1.01m) { error = "Rate must be at least 1.01."; return false; }
+        if (Rate > MaxRate) { error = $"Rate must be at most {MaxRate:N0}."; return false; }
+
+        // Mirror Bet invariants — surface a friendly message instead of throwing
+        // ArgumentException deep in the use case.
+        switch (Type)
+        {
+            case BetType.Win:
+                if (Side is not (Side.Side1 or Side.Side2)) { error = "Win bet requires Side1 or Side2."; return false; }
+                break;
+            case BetType.Draw:
+                if (Side != Side.Draw) { error = "Draw bet requires Side = Draw."; return false; }
+                break;
+            case BetType.WinFora:
+                if (Side is not (Side.Side1 or Side.Side2)) { error = "Handicap bet requires Side1 or Side2."; return false; }
+                if (Value is null or 0m) { error = "Handicap bet needs a non-zero threshold."; return false; }
+                break;
+            case BetType.Total:
+                if (Side is not (Side.Less or Side.More)) { error = "Total bet requires Less or More."; return false; }
+                if (Value is null or 0m) { error = "Total bet needs a non-zero threshold."; return false; }
+                break;
+        }
+
+        error = null;
+        return true;
+    }
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/DashboardSummaryService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Options;
+
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Repository-backed implementation of <see cref="IDashboardSummaryService"/>.
+/// Composes server-side counts (no full-table materialisation) with the top few
+/// anomaly signals and the worker-toggle state. Scoped — captures the per-circuit
+/// repository scope like the other browsing services.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class DashboardSummaryService : IDashboardSummaryService
+{
+    private const int LatestSignalCount = 5;
+
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events;
+    private readonly ISnapshotRepository _snapshots;
+    private readonly IAnomalyRepository _anomalies;
+    private readonly IAnomalyBrowsingService _anomalyBrowsing;
+    private readonly IOptionsMonitor<WorkerOptions> _workers;
+
+    public DashboardSummaryService(
+        IEventRepository events,
+        ISnapshotRepository snapshots,
+        IAnomalyRepository anomalies,
+        IAnomalyBrowsingService anomalyBrowsing,
+        IOptionsMonitor<WorkerOptions> workers)
+    {
+        _events = events ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(events));
+        _snapshots = snapshots ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(snapshots));
+        _anomalies = anomalies ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(anomalies));
+        _anomalyBrowsing = anomalyBrowsing ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(anomalyBrowsing));
+        _workers = workers ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(workers));
+    }
+
+    public async Task<DashboardSummary> GetAsync(CancellationToken ct)
+    {
+        var todayStart = new DateTimeOffset(MoscowTime.Now.Date, MoscowTime.Offset);
+
+        var eventsTracked = await _events.CountAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        var snapshotsToday = await _snapshots.CountSinceAsync(todayStart, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        // DateTimeOffset.MinValue lower bound counts every row (year dominates the
+        // lexical comparison regardless of offset).
+        var anomaliesTotal = await _anomalies.CountSinceAsync(DateTimeOffset.MinValue, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        var anomaliesToday = await _anomalies.CountSinceAsync(todayStart, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        var sports = await _events.ListDistinctSportCodesAsync(ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+
+        var latest = anomaliesTotal == 0
+            ? (IReadOnlyList<AnomalyListItem>)Array.Empty<AnomalyListItem>()
+            : (await _anomalyBrowsing.ListAsync(new AnomalyFilter(), ct).ConfigureAwait(false))
+                .Take(LatestSignalCount)
+                .ToList();
+
+        var w = _workers.CurrentValue;
+
+        return new DashboardSummary(
+            EventsTracked: eventsTracked,
+            SnapshotsToday: snapshotsToday,
+            AnomaliesTotal: anomaliesTotal,
+            AnomaliesToday: anomaliesToday,
+            SportsCovered: sports.Count,
+            LatestSignals: latest,
+            ScheduleStatus: StageStatus(w.UpcomingPollerEnabled, eventsTracked > 0),
+            SnapshotStatus: StageStatus(w.LivePollerEnabled, snapshotsToday > 0),
+            DetectorStatus: StageStatus(w.AnomalyDetectionEnabled, anomaliesTotal > 0),
+            ExportStatus: eventsTracked > 0 ? "ok" : "idle");
+    }
+
+    // Maps a worker stage to the PipelineStep token: disabled → idle, enabled but
+    // not yet producing → warn (waiting), enabled and producing → ok.
+    private static string StageStatus(bool enabled, bool producing) =>
+        !enabled ? "idle" : producing ? "ok" : "warn";
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/EventBrowsingService.cs

@@ -83,15 +83,17 @@ public sealed class EventBrowsingService : IEventBrowsingService
     {
         ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(filter);
 
-        var range = new DateRange(filter.Dates.From, filter.Dates.To);
-        var events = await _events.ListByDateRangeAsync(range, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
+        // Date range + sport filter pushed to SQL (was: load the whole date range,
+        // then filter sports in memory). Country/search filtering and locale-aware
+        // sorting stay here to preserve the Cyrillic ordinal semantics that SQLite's
+        // BINARY collation would change.
+        var query = new EventQuery(
+            new DateRange(filter.Dates.From, filter.Dates.To),
+            filter.SportCodes);
+        var events = await _events.QueryAsync(query, ct).ConfigureAwait(false);
 
-        // Apply non-temporal filters in-memory — list size is small (UI page).
         IEnumerable<Event> filtered = events;
 
-        if (filter.SportCodes is { Count: > 0 } sports)
-            filtered = filtered.Where(e => sports.Contains(e.Sport.Value));
-
         if (filter.CountryCodes is { Count: > 0 } countries)
             filtered = filtered.Where(e => countries.Contains(e.CountryCode, StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase));
 

src/Marathon.UI/Services/IAnomalyInsightsService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Browsing facade in front of <see cref="Marathon.Application.UseCases.EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase"/>.
+/// The Insights page binds to this — never to the use case directly — so the
+/// per-row event-title join, severity bucketing, and any future caching live
+/// in one place.
+/// </summary>
+public interface IAnomalyInsightsService
+{
+    /// <summary>Builds the full report and projects it for the UI.</summary>
+    Task<AnomalyInsightsVm> GetReportAsync(CancellationToken ct);
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/IBacktestService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Browsing facade in front of <see cref="Marathon.Application.UseCases.RunBacktestUseCase"/>.
+/// The Backtest page binds to this — view-model shaping and event-title
+/// joining live here so the page stays declarative.
+/// </summary>
+public interface IBacktestService
+{
+    /// <summary>Validates the form, runs the simulator, projects for the UI.</summary>
+    /// <exception cref="ArgumentException">Form fails its own validation.</exception>
+    Task<BacktestVm> RunAsync(BacktestForm form, CancellationToken ct);
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/IBetJournalService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Browsing facade over the bet-journal use cases. The Journal page binds to
+/// this — never the use cases directly — so view-model shaping, event-title
+/// joining, and validation surface in one place.
+/// </summary>
+public interface IBetJournalService
+{
+    /// <summary>Builds the full report and projects it for the UI.</summary>
+    Task<BetJournalVm> GetReportAsync(CancellationToken ct);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Validates and persists a manually entered bet. Returns the newly stored
+    /// row's id. Throws <see cref="InvalidOperationException"/> when the form
+    /// validates but references an unknown event.
+    /// </summary>
+    /// <exception cref="ArgumentException">Form fails its own validation.</exception>
+    Task<Guid> AddAsync(AddBetForm form, CancellationToken ct);
+
+    /// <summary>Removes a bet by id. No-op when the id is unknown.</summary>
+    Task DeleteAsync(Guid betId, CancellationToken ct);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Sweeps pending bets and grades the ones whose events are now resolved.
+    /// Returns the count graded in this pass.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<int> ResolvePendingAsync(CancellationToken ct);
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Upcoming (and recently-started) events for the bet-entry autocomplete,
+    /// ordered by kickoff. Loaded once by the page; filtered client-side per keystroke.
+    /// </summary>
+    Task<IReadOnlyList<EventOption>> GetUpcomingEventOptionsAsync(CancellationToken ct);
+}
+
+/// <summary>A selectable event for the bet-journal "find event" autocomplete.</summary>
+/// <param name="Id">The bookmaker event code (what the form's Event ID expects).</param>
+/// <param name="Label">Display text: "Home vs Away · yyyy-MM-dd HH:mm".</param>
+/// <param name="ScheduledAt">Kickoff, for ordering.</param>
+public sealed record EventOption(string Id, string Label, DateTimeOffset ScheduledAt);

src/Marathon.UI/Services/IDashboardSummaryService.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+namespace Marathon.UI.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Live figures for the dashboard (Home) page: real counts, the most recent
+/// anomaly signals, and a per-stage capture-pipeline health read derived from the
+/// worker toggles + whether each stage is actually producing data.
+/// </summary>
+public interface IDashboardSummaryService
+{
+    Task<DashboardSummary> GetAsync(CancellationToken ct);
+}
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Snapshot of dashboard figures. <see cref="HasAnyData"/> drives the first-run
+/// empty state. Pipeline statuses use the PipelineStep token vocabulary
+/// (<c>ok</c> / <c>warn</c> / <c>idle</c> / <c>error</c>).
+/// </summary>
+public sealed record DashboardSummary(
+    int EventsTracked,
+    int SnapshotsToday,
+    int AnomaliesTotal,
+    int AnomaliesToday,
+    int SportsCovered,
+    IReadOnlyList<AnomalyListItem> LatestSignals,
+    string ScheduleStatus,
+    string SnapshotStatus,
+    string DetectorStatus,
+    string ExportStatus)
+{
+    /// <summary>True once anything has been captured — gates the welcome/empty state.</summary>
+    public bool HasAnyData => EventsTracked > 0 || AnomaliesTotal > 0;
+
+    /// <summary>An empty summary used as the initial render state before data loads.</summary>
+    public static DashboardSummary Empty { get; } = new(
+        EventsTracked: 0,
+        SnapshotsToday: 0,
+        AnomaliesTotal: 0,
+        AnomaliesToday: 0,
+        SportsCovered: 0,
+        LatestSignals: Array.Empty<AnomalyListItem>(),
+        ScheduleStatus: "idle",
+        SnapshotStatus: "idle",
+        DetectorStatus: "idle",
+        ExportStatus: "idle");
+}

src/Marathon.UI/Services/UiServicesExtensions.cs

@@ -57,7 +57,11 @@ public static class UiServicesExtensions
         // Browsing facades — Scoped so they capture the per-circuit repository scope.
         services.AddScoped<IEventBrowsingService, EventBrowsingService>();
         services.AddScoped<IAnomalyBrowsingService, AnomalyBrowsingService>();
+        services.AddScoped<IAnomalyInsightsService, AnomalyInsightsService>();
         services.AddScoped<IResultsBrowsingService, ResultsBrowsingService>();
+        services.AddScoped<IBetJournalService, BetJournalService>();
+        services.AddScoped<IBacktestService, BacktestService>();
+        services.AddScoped<IDashboardSummaryService, DashboardSummaryService>();
 
         // Settings writer — file path is host-resolved.
         services.AddSingleton<ISettingsWriter>(_ => new JsonSettingsWriter(settingsLocalPath));

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/Betting/ClosingLineValueCalculatorTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Application.Betting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.Betting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Unit tests for <see cref="ClosingLineValueCalculator"/> covering the math
+/// itself and the snapshot-matching path used by the report use case.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class ClosingLineValueCalculatorTests
+{
+    private static readonly EventId EventId = new("11111111");
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Compute_Should_ReturnPositive_When_TakenRate_BeatsClose()
+    {
+        // Taken 2.20 (implied 0.4545); closed 2.00 (implied 0.5000) → CLV = +0.0455
+        var clv = ClosingLineValueCalculator.Compute(takenRate: 2.20m, closingRate: 2.00m);
+
+        clv.Should().BeGreaterThan(0m);
+        clv.Should().BeApproximately(0.04545m, 0.00001m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Compute_Should_ReturnNegative_When_TakenRate_WorseThanClose()
+    {
+        // Taken 1.80 (0.5556); closed 2.00 (0.5000) → CLV = -0.0556
+        var clv = ClosingLineValueCalculator.Compute(takenRate: 1.80m, closingRate: 2.00m);
+
+        clv.Should().BeLessThan(0m);
+        clv.Should().BeApproximately(-0.05556m, 0.00001m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Compute_Should_ReturnZero_When_RatesMatch()
+    {
+        ClosingLineValueCalculator.Compute(2.00m, 2.00m).Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(0)]
+    [InlineData(-1)]
+    public void Compute_Should_Throw_When_AnyRateIsZeroOrNegative(decimal rate)
+    {
+        ((Action)(() => ClosingLineValueCalculator.Compute(rate, 2m)))
+            .Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+        ((Action)(() => ClosingLineValueCalculator.Compute(2m, rate)))
+            .Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void TryCompute_Should_ReturnNull_When_NoMatchingBetInSnapshot()
+    {
+        var taken = new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1,
+            value: null, new OddsRate(2.20m));
+
+        // Snapshot contains only Side2 — no match for Side1 Win.
+        var snapshot = new OddsSnapshot(EventId, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow, OddsSource.PreMatch,
+            new[] { new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side2, null, new OddsRate(1.70m)) });
+
+        var clv = ClosingLineValueCalculator.TryCompute(2.20m, taken, snapshot);
+
+        clv.Should().BeNull();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void TryCompute_Should_ReturnNull_When_SnapshotIsNull()
+    {
+        var taken = new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m));
+        ClosingLineValueCalculator.TryCompute(2m, taken, closingSnapshot: null).Should().BeNull();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void TryCompute_Should_MatchOnScopeTypeSideAndValue()
+    {
+        // Two handicap markets with different thresholds — pick the right one.
+        var taken = new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.WinFora, Side.Side1,
+            new OddsValue(-1.5m), new OddsRate(2.20m));
+
+        var snapshot = new OddsSnapshot(EventId, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow, OddsSource.PreMatch,
+            new[]
+            {
+                new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.WinFora, Side.Side1,
+                    new OddsValue(-2.5m), new OddsRate(3.50m)), // wrong threshold
+                new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.WinFora, Side.Side1,
+                    new OddsValue(-1.5m), new OddsRate(2.00m)), // match
+            });
+
+        var clv = ClosingLineValueCalculator.TryCompute(2.20m, taken, snapshot);
+
+        clv.Should().BeApproximately(0.04545m, 0.00001m);
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/BuildBetJournalReportUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging.Abstractions;
+using NSubstitute;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.UseCases;
+
+public sealed class BuildBetJournalReportUseCaseTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset Placed = new(2026, 5, 16, 12, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset Kickoff = new(2026, 5, 16, 18, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets = Substitute.For<IPlacedBetRepository>();
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events = Substitute.For<IEventRepository>();
+    private readonly ISnapshotRepository _snapshots = Substitute.For<ISnapshotRepository>();
+
+    public BuildBetJournalReportUseCaseTests()
+    {
+        // Use case batches event loads via GetManyAsync; route through per-id stubs.
+        TestFixtures.BridgeGetMany(_events);
+    }
+
+    private BuildBetJournalReportUseCase CreateSut() =>
+        new(_bets, _events, _snapshots, NullLogger<BuildBetJournalReportUseCase>.Instance);
+
+    private static PlacedBet MakeBet(
+        EventId id,
+        BetOutcome outcome,
+        Side side = Side.Side1,
+        decimal stake = 100m,
+        decimal rate = 2.10m) =>
+        new(
+            Guid.NewGuid(), id,
+            new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, side, null, new OddsRate(rate)),
+            stake, Placed, outcome, null);
+
+    private static Event MakeEvent(EventId id, DateTimeOffset scheduledAt) =>
+        new(id, new SportCode(11), "BY", "L1", "Cat", scheduledAt, "Team A", "Team B");
+
+    private static OddsSnapshot MakeSnapshot(EventId id, DateTimeOffset at, decimal rateSide1) =>
+        new(id, at, OddsSource.PreMatch,
+            new[]
+            {
+                new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(rateSide1)),
+                new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side2, null, new OddsRate(2.00m)),
+            });
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ReturnEmptyReport_When_NoBets()
+    {
+        _bets.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(Array.Empty<PlacedBet>().ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Bets.Should().BeEmpty();
+        report.Stats.TotalBets.Should().Be(0);
+        report.Stats.RoiPercent.Should().BeNull();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_AggregateStats_AcrossMixedOutcomes()
+    {
+        var id1 = new EventId("e-1");
+        var id2 = new EventId("e-2");
+        var id3 = new EventId("e-3");
+
+        _bets.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakeBet(id1, BetOutcome.Won,  stake: 100m, rate: 2.00m), // gross 200, +100
+                MakeBet(id2, BetOutcome.Lost, stake: 100m, rate: 2.00m), // gross 0,   -100
+                MakeBet(id3, BetOutcome.Pending),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        // Wire events so the report can compute CLV (we don't need actual CLV here — leave snapshots empty).
+        foreach (var id in new[] { id1, id2, id3 })
+        {
+            _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, Kickoff));
+            _snapshots.GetLatestPreMatchAsync(id, Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+                .Returns((OddsSnapshot?)null);
+        }
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Stats.TotalBets.Should().Be(3);
+        report.Stats.PendingCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.Stats.WonCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.Stats.LostCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.Stats.TotalStaked.Should().Be(200m, "pending bets are excluded from totals");
+        report.Stats.TotalReturned.Should().Be(200m);
+        report.Stats.NetProfit.Should().Be(0m);
+        report.Stats.RoiPercent.Should().Be(0m);
+        report.Stats.StrikeRatePercent.Should().Be(50m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ComputeClv_AgainstClosingSnapshot()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("clv-event");
+        var bet = MakeBet(id, BetOutcome.Won, rate: 2.20m, stake: 100m);
+
+        _bets.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { bet }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, Kickoff));
+
+        // Closing snapshot returned by the dedicated repo method.
+        _snapshots.GetLatestPreMatchAsync(id, Kickoff, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(MakeSnapshot(id, Kickoff.AddMinutes(-5), rateSide1: 2.00m));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Bets.Should().HaveCount(1);
+        report.Bets[0].ClvProbabilityDelta.Should().NotBeNull();
+        // taken 2.20 vs closing 2.00 → +0.04545
+        report.Bets[0].ClvProbabilityDelta!.Value.Should().BeApproximately(0.04545m, 0.00001m);
+        report.Stats.AverageClvProbabilityDelta.Should().NotBeNull();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_LeaveClvNull_When_NoClosingSnapshotAvailable()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("no-close");
+        _bets.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeBet(id, BetOutcome.Won) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, Kickoff));
+        _snapshots.GetLatestPreMatchAsync(id, Kickoff, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns((OddsSnapshot?)null);
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Bets[0].ClvProbabilityDelta.Should().BeNull();
+        report.Stats.AverageClvProbabilityDelta.Should().BeNull(
+            "no rows had a computable CLV — average is undefined");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ExcludeVoidStakes_FromRoiTurnover()
+    {
+        // 1 Won (+100), 1 Lost (-100), 1 Void (stake returned). Industry-standard
+        // ROI excludes pushes from turnover, so total staked = 200, returned 200,
+        // net 0, ROI 0%. If voids were included turnover would be 300 → ROI ≈ 0%
+        // numerator but inflated denominator semantics.
+        var ids = Enumerable.Range(1, 3)
+            .Select(i => new EventId($"void-{i}")).ToArray();
+
+        _bets.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakeBet(ids[0], BetOutcome.Won,  stake: 100m, rate: 2.00m),
+                MakeBet(ids[1], BetOutcome.Lost, stake: 100m, rate: 2.00m),
+                MakeBet(ids[2], BetOutcome.Void, stake: 100m, rate: 2.00m),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        foreach (var id in ids)
+        {
+            _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, Kickoff));
+            _snapshots.GetLatestPreMatchAsync(id, Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+                .Returns((OddsSnapshot?)null);
+        }
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Stats.VoidCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.Stats.TotalStaked.Should().Be(200m,
+            "void bets are pushes — the stake was returned and should not count as turnover");
+        report.Stats.TotalReturned.Should().Be(200m);
+        report.Stats.NetProfit.Should().Be(0m);
+        report.Stats.RoiPercent.Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_OrderBets_NewestPlacedFirst()
+    {
+        var ids = Enumerable.Range(0, 3).Select(i => new EventId($"ord-{i}")).ToArray();
+        var older = new DateTimeOffset(2026, 5, 10, 12, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+        var newer = new DateTimeOffset(2026, 5, 16, 12, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+        // Bet 0 is the middle one, bet 1 oldest, bet 2 newest.
+        var b0 = new PlacedBet(Guid.NewGuid(), ids[0],
+            new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m)),
+            100m, older.AddDays(1), BetOutcome.Won, null);
+        var b1 = new PlacedBet(Guid.NewGuid(), ids[1],
+            new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m)),
+            100m, older, BetOutcome.Lost, null);
+        var b2 = new PlacedBet(Guid.NewGuid(), ids[2],
+            new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m)),
+            100m, newer, BetOutcome.Pending, null);
+
+        _bets.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { b0, b1, b2 }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        foreach (var id in ids)
+        {
+            _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, Kickoff));
+            _snapshots.GetLatestPreMatchAsync(id, Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+                .Returns((OddsSnapshot?)null);
+        }
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Bets.Select(r => r.Bet.Id).Should().ContainInOrder(b2.Id, b0.Id, b1.Id);
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,346 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Reporting;
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging.Abstractions;
+using NSubstitute;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Unit tests for <see cref="EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase"/> covering empty
+/// state, mixed hit/miss aggregation, unresolved partitioning, and missing
+/// event metadata fallbacks.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCaseTests
+{
+    private readonly IAnomalyRepository _anomalies = Substitute.For<IAnomalyRepository>();
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events = Substitute.For<IEventRepository>();
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results = Substitute.For<IResultRepository>();
+
+    public EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCaseTests()
+    {
+        // Use cases batch event/result loads via GetManyAsync; route those through
+        // the per-id GetAsync stubs each test already configures.
+        TestFixtures.BridgeGetMany(_events);
+        TestFixtures.BridgeGetMany(_results);
+    }
+
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset BaseTime =
+        new(2026, 5, 10, 18, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+    // Flip evidence with Side1 → Side2 reversal.
+    private const string FlipEvidence = """
+        {
+          "suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
+          "preSuspension": {
+            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+            "p1": 0.55, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.25,
+            "rate1": 1.8, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 4.0
+          },
+          "postSuspension": {
+            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:02:30+03:00",
+            "p1": 0.25, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.55,
+            "rate1": 4.0, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 1.8
+          }
+        }
+        """;
+
+    private EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase CreateSut() =>
+        new(_anomalies, _events, _results,
+            NullLogger<EvaluateAnomalyOutcomesUseCase>.Instance);
+
+    private static Anomaly MakeAnomaly(EventId eventId, decimal score) =>
+        new(Guid.NewGuid(), eventId, BaseTime, AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip,
+            score, FlipEvidence);
+
+    private static Event MakeEvent(EventId id, int sportCode) =>
+        new(id, new SportCode(sportCode), "BY", "L1", "Cat",
+            BaseTime, "Team A", "Team B");
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ReturnEmptyReport_When_NoAnomaliesExist()
+    {
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(Array.Empty<Anomaly>().ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.TotalAnomalies.Should().Be(0);
+        report.HitRate.Should().BeNull();
+        report.Resolved.Should().BeEmpty();
+        report.BySport.Should().BeEmpty();
+        report.BySeverity.Should().BeEmpty();
+        report.ByScoreBin.Should().BeEmpty();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_PartitionAnomalies_Into_ResolvedAndUnresolved()
+    {
+        var id1 = new EventId("11111111");
+        var id2 = new EventId("22222222");
+
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakeAnomaly(id1, score: 0.65m),
+                MakeAnomaly(id2, score: 0.40m),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(id1, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id1, 11));
+        _events.GetAsync(id2, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id2, 6));
+
+        // id1 has a result → resolved; id2 has no result → unresolved.
+        _results.GetAsync(id1, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id1, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(id2, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns((EventResult?)null);
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.TotalAnomalies.Should().Be(2);
+        report.ResolvedCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.UnresolvedCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.HitCount.Should().Be(1, "id1's post-flip favourite (Side2) matched the actual winner");
+        report.MissCount.Should().Be(0);
+        report.HitRate.Should().Be(1.0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ComputeHitRate_Across_MixedHitsAndMisses()
+    {
+        var ids = Enumerable.Range(1, 4)
+            .Select(i => new EventId($"event-{i:00000000}"))
+            .ToArray();
+
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(ids.Select(id => MakeAnomaly(id, score: 0.55m)).ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        foreach (var id in ids)
+        {
+            _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, 11));
+        }
+
+        // Three hits (Side2 wins), one miss (Side1 wins).
+        _results.GetAsync(ids[0], Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(ids[0], 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(ids[1], Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(ids[1], 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(ids[2], Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(ids[2], 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(ids[3], Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(ids[3], 2, 0, Side.Side1, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.HitCount.Should().Be(3);
+        report.MissCount.Should().Be(1);
+        report.HitRate.Should().Be(0.75m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_BuildSeverityBuckets_Across_LowMediumHigh()
+    {
+        var idLow = new EventId("low000000");
+        var idMed = new EventId("med000000");
+        var idHigh = new EventId("high00000");
+
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakeAnomaly(idLow, score: 0.35m),
+                MakeAnomaly(idMed, score: 0.50m),
+                MakeAnomaly(idHigh, score: 0.75m),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        foreach (var id in new[] { idLow, idMed, idHigh })
+        {
+            _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, 11));
+            _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+                .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        }
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.BySeverity.Should().HaveCount(3);
+        report.BySeverity.Single(b => b.Key == OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityLow).Total.Should().Be(1);
+        report.BySeverity.Single(b => b.Key == OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityMedium).Total.Should().Be(1);
+        report.BySeverity.Single(b => b.Key == OutcomeBucketKeys.SeverityHigh).Total.Should().Be(1);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_GroupBySport_When_AnomaliesSpanMultipleSports()
+    {
+        var idFb = new EventId("fb000000");
+        var idBb = new EventId("bb000000");
+
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakeAnomaly(idFb, score: 0.55m),
+                MakeAnomaly(idBb, score: 0.55m),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(idFb, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(idFb, 11));
+        _events.GetAsync(idBb, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(idBb, 6));
+
+        _results.GetAsync(idFb, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(idFb, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(idBb, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(idBb, 2, 0, Side.Side1, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.BySport.Select(b => b.Key)
+            .Should().BeEquivalentTo(new[] { "Sport.6", "Sport.11" });
+        report.BySport.Single(b => b.Key == "Sport.11").HitRate.Should().Be(1.0m);
+        report.BySport.Single(b => b.Key == "Sport.6").HitRate.Should().Be(0.0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_BuildSevenScoreBins_With_CanonicalKeys()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("score000");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id, score: 0.95m) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, 11));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.ByScoreBin.Should().HaveCount(7, "default buckets cover [0.30, 1.00] in 0.10-wide bins");
+        report.ByScoreBin.Select(b => b.Key).Should().BeEquivalentTo(
+            new[]
+            {
+                "Bin.0.30-0.40", "Bin.0.40-0.50", "Bin.0.50-0.60", "Bin.0.60-0.70",
+                "Bin.0.70-0.80", "Bin.0.80-0.90", "Bin.0.90-1.00",
+            },
+            options => options.WithStrictOrdering(),
+            "the page reads these literals to render labels");
+        report.ByScoreBin.Last().Total.Should().Be(1, "score 0.95 should land in the [0.90, 1.00] bin");
+    }
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(0.30, "Bin.0.30-0.40")]
+    [InlineData(0.40, "Bin.0.40-0.50")]
+    [InlineData(0.5999, "Bin.0.50-0.60")]
+    [InlineData(0.60, "Bin.0.60-0.70")]
+    [InlineData(1.00, "Bin.0.90-1.00")]
+    public async Task Should_PlaceScore_InCorrectBin_AtBoundary(double scoreDouble, string expectedKey)
+    {
+        var score = (decimal)scoreDouble;
+        var id = new EventId("boundary");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id, score) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, 11));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        var bin = report.ByScoreBin.Single(b => b.Total == 1);
+        bin.Key.Should().Be(expectedKey);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ExtendScoreBinsBelow_When_DetectorThresholdIsLowered()
+    {
+        // Operator lowered Anomaly.OddsFlipThreshold to 0.10 → anomalies with
+        // score 0.15 exist. The histogram must still account for them.
+        var idLow = new EventId("lowscore");
+        var idHigh = new EventId("hicscore");
+
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakeAnomaly(idLow, score: 0.15m),
+                MakeAnomaly(idHigh, score: 0.85m),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        foreach (var id in new[] { idLow, idHigh })
+        {
+            _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, 11));
+            _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+                .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        }
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.ByScoreBin.Sum(b => b.Total).Should().Be(report.ResolvedCount,
+            "the histogram total must equal ResolvedCount regardless of detector tuning");
+        report.ByScoreBin.First().Key.Should().Be("Bin.0.10-0.20",
+            "buckets are extended downward to include the lowest observed score");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_PopulateEventTitles_ForJoinedEvents()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("title000");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id, 0.55m) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id, 11));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.EventTitles.Should().ContainKey(id);
+        report.EventTitles[id].Should().Be("Team A vs Team B");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_BatchEventAndResultLoads_InsteadOfPerIdGetAsync()
+    {
+        // Regression guard for the N+1 fix: the use case must resolve events/results
+        // via the batched GetManyAsync, never the per-id GetAsync in a loop. We stub
+        // GetManyAsync directly (overriding the constructor bridge) so DidNotReceive()
+        // on GetAsync is meaningful.
+        var id1 = new EventId("11111111");
+        var id2 = new EventId("22222222");
+
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id1, 0.55m), MakeAnomaly(id2, 0.55m) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetManyAsync(Arg.Any<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new Dictionary<EventId, Event> { [id1] = MakeEvent(id1, 11), [id2] = MakeEvent(id2, 6) });
+        _results.GetManyAsync(Arg.Any<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new Dictionary<EventId, EventResult>());
+
+        await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        await _events.Received(1)
+            .GetManyAsync(Arg.Any<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        await _events.DidNotReceive()
+            .GetAsync(Arg.Any<EventId>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        await _results.Received(1)
+            .GetManyAsync(Arg.Any<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        await _results.DidNotReceive()
+            .GetAsync(Arg.Any<EventId>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_HandleMissingEvent_By_OmittingFromSportBuckets()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("orphan00");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id, score: 0.55m) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns((Event?)null);
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var report = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        report.Resolved.Should().HaveCount(1,
+            "orphan anomalies are still evaluated for hit/miss");
+        report.BySport.Should().BeEmpty(
+            "missing event metadata excludes the row from sport breakdown");
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/PullResultsUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -17,6 +17,13 @@ public sealed class PullResultsUseCaseTests
     private readonly IEventRepository _eventRepo = Substitute.For<IEventRepository>();
     private readonly IResultRepository _resultRepo = Substitute.For<IResultRepository>();
 
+    public PullResultsUseCaseTests()
+    {
+        // Selection-mode candidate resolution now batches via GetManyAsync; route
+        // it through the per-id GetAsync stubs each test configures.
+        TestFixtures.BridgeGetMany(_eventRepo);
+    }
+
     private static readonly DateRange AnyRange = new(
         DateTimeOffset.UtcNow.AddDays(-1),
         DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/RecordPlacedBetUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging.Abstractions;
+using NSubstitute;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.UseCases;
+
+public sealed class RecordPlacedBetUseCaseTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets = Substitute.For<IPlacedBetRepository>();
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events = Substitute.For<IEventRepository>();
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results = Substitute.For<IResultRepository>();
+
+    private RecordPlacedBetUseCase CreateSut() =>
+        new(_bets, _events, _results, NullLogger<RecordPlacedBetUseCase>.Instance);
+
+    private static PlacedBet MakePending(EventId id, Side side = Side.Side1) =>
+        new(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: id,
+            Selection: new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, side, null, new OddsRate(2.10m)),
+            Stake: 100m,
+            PlacedAt: new DateTimeOffset(2026, 5, 16, 12, 0, 0, MoscowOffset),
+            Outcome: BetOutcome.Pending,
+            Notes: null);
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_Throw_When_EventDoesNotExist()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("missing");
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns((Event?)null);
+
+        var act = async () => await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(MakePending(id), CancellationToken.None);
+
+        await act.Should().ThrowAsync<InvalidOperationException>().WithMessage("*unknown event*");
+        await _bets.DidNotReceive().AddAsync(Arg.Any<PlacedBet>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_PersistPending_When_NoResultYet()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("event001");
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(TestFixtures.MakeEvent(id.Value));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns((EventResult?)null);
+
+        var bet = MakePending(id);
+
+        var stored = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(bet, CancellationToken.None);
+
+        stored.Outcome.Should().Be(BetOutcome.Pending, "no result yet — should remain pending");
+        await _bets.Received(1).AddAsync(Arg.Any<PlacedBet>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        await _bets.Received(1).SaveChangesAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_AutoGrade_When_ResultAlreadyAvailable()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("event002");
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(TestFixtures.MakeEvent(id.Value));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 2, 1, Side.Side1, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var bet = MakePending(id, side: Side.Side1);
+
+        var stored = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(bet, CancellationToken.None);
+
+        stored.Outcome.Should().Be(BetOutcome.Won, "Side1 was selected and Side1 won");
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/ResolvePendingBetsUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging.Abstractions;
+using NSubstitute;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.UseCases;
+
+public sealed class ResolvePendingBetsUseCaseTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset Placed =
+        new(2026, 5, 16, 12, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+    private readonly IPlacedBetRepository _bets = Substitute.For<IPlacedBetRepository>();
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results = Substitute.For<IResultRepository>();
+
+    private ResolvePendingBetsUseCase CreateSut() =>
+        new(_bets, _results, NullLogger<ResolvePendingBetsUseCase>.Instance);
+
+    private static PlacedBet MakePending(EventId id, Side side = Side.Side1) =>
+        new(
+            Guid.NewGuid(), id,
+            new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, side, null, new OddsRate(2.10m)),
+            100m, Placed, BetOutcome.Pending, null);
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ReturnZero_When_NoPendingBets()
+    {
+        _bets.ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome.Pending, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(Array.Empty<PlacedBet>().ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        var count = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        count.Should().Be(0);
+        await _bets.DidNotReceive().UpdateAsync(Arg.Any<PlacedBet>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_GradeBetsWithResults_AndLeaveOthersAlone()
+    {
+        var idGraded = new EventId("event-1");
+        var idUngraded = new EventId("event-2");
+
+        _bets.ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome.Pending, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakePending(idGraded, side: Side.Side1),
+                MakePending(idUngraded, side: Side.Side2),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _results.GetAsync(idGraded, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(idGraded, 2, 1, Side.Side1, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(idUngraded, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns((EventResult?)null);
+
+        var count = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        count.Should().Be(1, "only event-1 has a result");
+        await _bets.Received(1).UpdateAsync(
+            Arg.Is<PlacedBet>(b => b.EventId == idGraded && b.Outcome == BetOutcome.Won),
+            Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        await _bets.DidNotReceive().UpdateAsync(
+            Arg.Is<PlacedBet>(b => b.EventId == idUngraded),
+            Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_CacheResultLookups_PerEvent()
+    {
+        // Two pending bets on the same event — only one result fetch should fire.
+        var id = new EventId("event-shared");
+
+        _bets.ListByOutcomeAsync(BetOutcome.Pending, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[]
+            {
+                MakePending(id, side: Side.Side1),
+                MakePending(id, side: Side.Side2),
+            }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 2, 1, Side.Side1, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+        await _results.Received(1).GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/RunBacktestUseCaseTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
+using Marathon.Application.Storage;
+using Marathon.Application.UseCases;
+using Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging.Abstractions;
+using NSubstitute;
+
+namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.UseCases;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Tests the orchestration: anomaly + event + result join + parse + delegate to
+/// the simulator. The simulator's own correctness is covered in
+/// Marathon.Domain.Tests.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class RunBacktestUseCaseTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset BaseTime =
+        new(2026, 5, 10, 18, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+    private readonly IAnomalyRepository _anomalies = Substitute.For<IAnomalyRepository>();
+    private readonly IEventRepository _events = Substitute.For<IEventRepository>();
+    private readonly IResultRepository _results = Substitute.For<IResultRepository>();
+
+    public RunBacktestUseCaseTests()
+    {
+        // Use case batches event/result loads via GetManyAsync; route through per-id stubs.
+        TestFixtures.BridgeGetMany(_events);
+        TestFixtures.BridgeGetMany(_results);
+    }
+
+    private RunBacktestUseCase CreateSut() =>
+        new(_anomalies, _events, _results, NullLogger<RunBacktestUseCase>.Instance);
+
+    private const string FlipEvidence = """
+        {
+          "suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
+          "preSuspension": {
+            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+            "p1": 0.55, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.25,
+            "rate1": 1.8, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 4.0
+          },
+          "postSuspension": {
+            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:02:30+03:00",
+            "p1": 0.25, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.55,
+            "rate1": 4.0, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 1.8
+          }
+        }
+        """;
+
+    private static Anomaly MakeAnomaly(EventId eventId, decimal score = 0.55m, string? evidence = null) =>
+        new(Guid.NewGuid(), eventId, BaseTime, AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip,
+            score, evidence ?? FlipEvidence);
+
+    private static Event MakeEvent(EventId id) =>
+        new(id, new SportCode(11), "BY", "L1", "Cat", BaseTime, "Team A", "Team B");
+
+    private static BacktestStrategy DefaultStrategy(decimal minScore = 0.30m) =>
+        new(StartingBankroll: 1000m, MinScore: minScore,
+            StakeRule: StakeRule.Flat,
+            FlatStake: 100m, PercentOfBankroll: 0.02m, KellyFraction: 0.25m);
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_LoadByDateRange_When_RangeProvided()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("77777777");
+        var range = new DateRange(BaseTime.AddDays(-1), BaseTime.AddDays(1));
+
+        _anomalies.ListByDateRangeAsync(
+                Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset?>(), Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset?>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var result = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(DefaultStrategy(), range, CancellationToken.None);
+
+        await _anomalies.Received(1).ListByDateRangeAsync(
+            Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset?>(), Arg.Any<DateTimeOffset?>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        await _anomalies.DidNotReceive().ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>());
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().BeGreaterThan(0, "the in-range graded anomaly produces a bet");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_ReturnEmptyResult_When_NoAnomaliesExist()
+    {
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(Array.Empty<Anomaly>().ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        var result = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(DefaultStrategy(), CancellationToken.None);
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(0);
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(1000m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_SimulateBet_When_AnomalyHasResult()
+    {
+        // Anomaly with result, Side2 (post-flip favourite) wins → +100.
+        var id = new EventId("event-1");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id, score: 0.55m) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var result = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(DefaultStrategy(), CancellationToken.None);
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Wins.Should().Be(1);
+        result.NetProfit.Should().Be(80m,
+            "stake 100 at rate 1.8 — win pays 180, profit 80");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_FilterOut_AnomaliesWithoutResults()
+    {
+        var graded = new EventId("graded");
+        var ungraded = new EventId("ungraded");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(graded), MakeAnomaly(ungraded) }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(graded, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(graded));
+        _events.GetAsync(ungraded, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(ungraded));
+
+        _results.GetAsync(graded, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(graded, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+        _results.GetAsync(ungraded, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns((EventResult?)null);
+
+        var result = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(DefaultStrategy(), CancellationToken.None);
+
+        // Only the graded anomaly should reach the simulator — the ungraded one is filtered out
+        // before the simulator, so it does NOT appear in result.Skipped.
+        (result.BetsPlaced + result.Skipped).Should().Be(1);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task Should_FilterOut_AnomaliesWithMalformedEvidence()
+    {
+        var id = new EventId("bad-evidence");
+        _anomalies.ListAsync(Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new[] { MakeAnomaly(id, evidence: "{not json") }.ToList().AsReadOnly());
+
+        _events.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>()).Returns(MakeEvent(id));
+        _results.GetAsync(id, Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(new EventResult(id, 0, 2, Side.Side2, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow));
+
+        var result = await CreateSut().ExecuteAsync(DefaultStrategy(), CancellationToken.None);
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(0);
+        result.Skipped.Should().Be(0,
+            "malformed evidence is filtered before the simulator — not counted as a strategy skip");
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Application.Tests/UseCases/TestFixtures.cs

@@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
+using Marathon.Application.Abstractions;
 using Marathon.Application.Configuration;
 using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
 using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
 using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
 using Microsoft.Extensions.Options;
+using NSubstitute;
 
 namespace Marathon.Application.Tests.UseCases;
 
@@ -13,6 +15,45 @@ internal static class TestFixtures
 {
     private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
 
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Bridges the legacy per-id <c>GetAsync</c> stubs to the batched
+    /// <c>GetManyAsync</c> the use cases now call: each requested id is resolved
+    /// through whatever <c>GetAsync</c> was configured to return for it. Lets the
+    /// existing per-id <c>.Returns(...)</c> setups keep working unchanged.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static void BridgeGetMany(IEventRepository events)
+    {
+        events.GetManyAsync(Arg.Any<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(ci =>
+            {
+                var ids = ci.Arg<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>();
+                var dict = new Dictionary<EventId, Event>();
+                foreach (var id in ids.Distinct())
+                {
+                    var ev = events.GetAsync(id, CancellationToken.None).GetAwaiter().GetResult();
+                    if (ev is not null) dict[id] = ev;
+                }
+                return (IReadOnlyDictionary<EventId, Event>)dict;
+            });
+    }
+
+    /// <inheritdoc cref="BridgeGetMany(IEventRepository)"/>
+    public static void BridgeGetMany(IResultRepository results)
+    {
+        results.GetManyAsync(Arg.Any<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>(), Arg.Any<CancellationToken>())
+            .Returns(ci =>
+            {
+                var ids = ci.Arg<IReadOnlyCollection<EventId>>();
+                var dict = new Dictionary<EventId, EventResult>();
+                foreach (var id in ids.Distinct())
+                {
+                    var r = results.GetAsync(id, CancellationToken.None).GetAwaiter().GetResult();
+                    if (r is not null) dict[id] = r;
+                }
+                return (IReadOnlyDictionary<EventId, EventResult>)dict;
+            });
+    }
+
     /// <summary>Creates a minimal valid <see cref="Event"/> with the given event ID string.</summary>
     public static Event MakeEvent(string eventIdValue = "12345678")
     {

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyEvidenceParserTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Unit tests for <see cref="AnomalyEvidenceParser"/> covering happy path,
+/// two-way (no draw), and malformed JSON tolerance.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class AnomalyEvidenceParserTests
+{
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_Parse_ThreeWayEvidence_With_DrawOutcome()
+    {
+        const string json = """
+            {
+              "suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
+              "preSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.55, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.25,
+                "rate1": 1.8, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 4.0
+              },
+              "postSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:02:30+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.25, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.55,
+                "rate1": 4.0, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 1.8
+              }
+            }
+            """;
+
+        var parsed = AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(json, out var data);
+
+        parsed.Should().BeTrue();
+        data.SuspensionGapSeconds.Should().Be(90);
+        data.PreSuspension.P1.Should().Be(0.55m);
+        data.PreSuspension.PDraw.Should().Be(0.20m);
+        data.PreSuspension.Favourite.Should().Be(Side.Side1, "Side1 had the highest pre-suspension probability");
+        data.PostSuspension.Favourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2, "Side2 became favourite after the flip");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_Parse_TwoWayEvidence_With_NullDraw()
+    {
+        const string json = """
+            {
+              "suspensionGapSeconds": 75,
+              "preSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.70, "p2": 0.30,
+                "rate1": 1.4, "rate2": 3.3
+              },
+              "postSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:30+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.30, "p2": 0.70,
+                "rate1": 3.3, "rate2": 1.4
+              }
+            }
+            """;
+
+        var parsed = AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(json, out var data);
+
+        parsed.Should().BeTrue();
+        data.PreSuspension.PDraw.Should().BeNull("tennis has no draw outcome");
+        data.PreSuspension.RateDraw.Should().BeNull();
+        data.PreSuspension.Favourite.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
+        data.PostSuspension.Favourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnFalse_When_JsonIsNullOrEmpty()
+    {
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(null, out _).Should().BeFalse();
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(string.Empty, out _).Should().BeFalse();
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse("   ", out _).Should().BeFalse();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnFalse_When_JsonIsMalformed()
+    {
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse("{not json", out _).Should().BeFalse();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnFalse_When_PreOrPostSuspensionMissing()
+    {
+        const string onlyPre = """
+            {
+              "suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
+              "preSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.55, "p2": 0.25, "rate1": 1.8, "rate2": 4.0
+              }
+            }
+            """;
+
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(onlyPre, out _).Should().BeFalse();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Favourite_Should_Be_Draw_When_DrawIsMostLikely()
+    {
+        const string json = """
+            {
+              "suspensionGapSeconds": 60,
+              "preSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.30, "pDraw": 0.50, "p2": 0.20,
+                "rate1": 3.3, "rateDraw": 2.0, "rate2": 5.0
+              },
+              "postSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.30, "pDraw": 0.50, "p2": 0.20,
+                "rate1": 3.3, "rateDraw": 2.0, "rate2": 5.0
+              }
+            }
+            """;
+
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(json, out var data).Should().BeTrue();
+        data.PreSuspension.Favourite.Should().Be(Side.Draw);
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/AnomalyOutcomeEvaluatorTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,178 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.AnomalyDetection;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Unit tests for <see cref="AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator"/> covering the join with
+/// <see cref="EventResult"/> for hit / miss / unresolved verdicts.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class AnomalyOutcomeEvaluatorTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly EventId DefaultEventId = new("12345678");
+
+    private const string ThreeWayFlipJson = """
+        {
+          "suspensionGapSeconds": 90,
+          "preSuspension": {
+            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+            "p1": 0.55, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.25,
+            "rate1": 1.8, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 4.0
+          },
+          "postSuspension": {
+            "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:02:30+03:00",
+            "p1": 0.25, "pDraw": 0.20, "p2": 0.55,
+            "rate1": 4.0, "rateDraw": 4.5, "rate2": 1.8
+          }
+        }
+        """;
+
+    private static Anomaly MakeAnomaly(string evidenceJson, decimal score = 0.5m) =>
+        new(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: DefaultEventId,
+            DetectedAt: new DateTimeOffset(2026, 5, 10, 18, 5, 0, MoscowOffset),
+            Kind: AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip,
+            Score: score,
+            EvidenceJson: evidenceJson);
+
+    private static EventResult MakeResult(Side winner, int s1 = 1, int s2 = 1) =>
+        new(DefaultEventId, s1, s2, winner, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportHit_When_PostFlipFavourite_Wins()
+    {
+        // Post-flip favourite = Side2; result = Side2 wins → Hit.
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson, score: 0.65m);
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side2, s1: 0, s2: 2);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(6), result);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit);
+        verdict.PreFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
+        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+        verdict.Sport!.Value.Should().Be(6);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportMiss_When_PostFlipFavourite_Loses()
+    {
+        // Post-flip favourite = Side2; result = Side1 wins → Miss (detector wrong).
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson);
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side1, s1: 2, s2: 0);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(11), result);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss);
+        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportMiss_When_DrawOccurred_AndPostFlipFavouriteIsNotDraw()
+    {
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson);
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Draw, s1: 1, s2: 1);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, null, result);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Miss);
+        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Draw);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_ResultIsNull()
+    {
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(ThreeWayFlipJson);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(22723), result: null);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
+        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().BeNull();
+        // Pre/post favourites still computed for display.
+        verdict.PreFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side1);
+        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_EvidenceJsonIsMalformed()
+    {
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly("{malformed");
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side1);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, null, result);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved,
+            "evidence cannot be parsed so we cannot judge the prediction");
+        verdict.PreFlipFavourite.Should().BeNull(
+            "fabricated favourites would mislead any consumer that reads the unresolved branch");
+        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().BeNull();
+        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Side1, "the result side is still known and surfaced");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportHit_For_TwoWayTennis_When_PostFlipFavouriteWins()
+    {
+        const string twoWayJson = """
+            {
+              "suspensionGapSeconds": 75,
+              "preSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.70, "p2": 0.30, "rate1": 1.4, "rate2": 3.3
+              },
+              "postSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:30+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.30, "p2": 0.70, "rate1": 3.3, "rate2": 1.4
+              }
+            }
+            """;
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(twoWayJson, score: 0.55m);
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side2, s1: 0, s2: 2);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(22723), result);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Hit);
+        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReportUnresolved_When_TwoWayMarket_Has_DrawWinner()
+    {
+        // Tennis cannot draw — if the result is Draw the data is inconsistent
+        // with the evidence and we refuse to grade rather than silently miss-classify.
+        const string twoWayJson = """
+            {
+              "suspensionGapSeconds": 75,
+              "preSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:00:00+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.70, "p2": 0.30, "rate1": 1.4, "rate2": 3.3
+              },
+              "postSuspension": {
+                "capturedAt": "2026-05-10T18:01:30+03:00",
+                "p1": 0.30, "p2": 0.70, "rate1": 3.3, "rate2": 1.4
+              }
+            }
+            """;
+        var anomaly = MakeAnomaly(twoWayJson, score: 0.55m);
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Draw);
+
+        var verdict = AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(anomaly, new SportCode(22723), result);
+
+        verdict.Outcome.Should().Be(AnomalyOutcomeKind.Unresolved);
+        verdict.ActualWinner.Should().Be(Side.Draw);
+        verdict.PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2,
+            "favourite is still computed for display, just not graded");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_Throw_When_AnomalyIsNull()
+    {
+        var act = () => AnomalyOutcomeEvaluator.Evaluate(null!, null, null);
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentNullException>();
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/AnomalyDetection/SteamMoveDetectorTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.AnomalyDetection;
+
+public sealed class SteamMoveDetectorTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset BaseTime = new(2026, 5, 10, 18, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+    private static readonly EventId Event = new("26000001");
+
+    // window 120s, drift threshold 0.20, min 3 snapshots, continuity break at 60s.
+    private static SteamMoveDetector CreateSut() => new(120, 0.20m, 3, 60);
+
+    private static OddsSnapshot Live(int seconds, decimal r1, decimal r2) =>
+        new(Event, BaseTime.AddSeconds(seconds), OddsSource.Live,
+            new List<Bet>
+            {
+                new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(r1)),
+                new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side2, null, new OddsRate(r2)),
+            });
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_FlagSteamMove_When_OneSideShortensContinuously()
+    {
+        // Side2 shortens (3.0 → 1.6) over 90s in continuous 30s steps: its normalised
+        // implied probability rises ~0.33 → ~0.61, a ~0.28 drift > 0.20 threshold.
+        var snapshots = new[]
+        {
+            Live(0,  1.5m, 3.0m),
+            Live(30, 1.7m, 2.3m),
+            Live(60, 2.1m, 1.9m),
+            Live(90, 2.5m, 1.6m),
+        };
+
+        var result = CreateSut().Detect(Event, snapshots);
+
+        result.Should().NotBeEmpty();
+        result.Should().OnlyContain(a => a.Kind == AnomalyKind.SteamMove);
+        result.Max(a => a.Score).Should().BeGreaterThanOrEqualTo(0.20m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_NotFlag_When_DriftBelowThreshold()
+    {
+        // Gentle drift: Side2 0.333 → ~0.38, well under the 0.20 threshold.
+        var snapshots = new[]
+        {
+            Live(0,  1.5m, 3.0m),
+            Live(30, 1.55m, 2.85m),
+            Live(60, 1.6m, 2.7m),
+        };
+
+        CreateSut().Detect(Event, snapshots).Should().BeEmpty();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_NotFlag_When_DriftSpansSuspensionGap()
+    {
+        // The big move happens across a 90s gap (> 60s continuity break) — that is the
+        // SuspensionFlip detector's territory, so steam must not double-flag it.
+        var snapshots = new[]
+        {
+            Live(0,   1.3m, 4.0m),
+            Live(30,  1.3m, 4.0m),
+            Live(120, 4.0m, 1.3m), // 90s gap
+            Live(150, 4.0m, 1.3m),
+        };
+
+        CreateSut().Detect(Event, snapshots).Should().BeEmpty();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnEmpty_When_FewerThanMinSnapshots()
+    {
+        var snapshots = new[] { Live(0, 1.5m, 3.0m), Live(30, 2.5m, 1.6m) };
+
+        CreateSut().Detect(Event, snapshots).Should().BeEmpty();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_IgnorePreMatchSnapshots()
+    {
+        var snapshots = new[]
+        {
+            new OddsSnapshot(Event, BaseTime, OddsSource.PreMatch,
+                new List<Bet> { new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(1.5m)),
+                                new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side2, null, new OddsRate(3.0m)) }),
+            new OddsSnapshot(Event, BaseTime.AddSeconds(30), OddsSource.PreMatch,
+                new List<Bet> { new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2.5m)),
+                                new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side2, null, new OddsRate(1.6m)) }),
+            new OddsSnapshot(Event, BaseTime.AddSeconds(60), OddsSource.PreMatch,
+                new List<Bet> { new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2.6m)),
+                                new(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side2, null, new OddsRate(1.55m)) }),
+        };
+
+        CreateSut().Detect(Event, snapshots).Should().BeEmpty();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_EmitParseableEvidence_For_DetectedSteamMove()
+    {
+        var snapshots = new[]
+        {
+            Live(0,  1.5m, 3.0m),
+            Live(30, 1.9m, 2.0m),
+            Live(60, 2.5m, 1.6m),
+        };
+
+        var anomaly = CreateSut().Detect(Event, snapshots).First();
+
+        AnomalyEvidenceParser.TryParse(anomaly.EvidenceJson, out var data).Should().BeTrue();
+        data.PreSuspension.Should().NotBeNull();
+        data.PostSuspension.Should().NotBeNull();
+        // Post favourite is the steamed (shortened) side — drives the outcome evaluator.
+        data.PostSuspension.Favourite.Should().Be(Side.Side2);
+    }
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(0)]
+    [InlineData(-30)]
+    public void Should_Throw_When_ConstructedWithInvalidWindow(int windowSeconds)
+    {
+        var act = () => new SteamMoveDetector(windowSeconds, 0.20m, 3, 60);
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/Backtesting/BacktestSimulatorTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,386 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.AnomalyDetection;
+using Marathon.Domain.Backtesting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.Backtesting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Unit tests for <see cref="BacktestSimulator"/>. Math-heavy — every test
+/// pins one branch of the loop and the resulting headline numbers.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class BacktestSimulatorTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset BaseTime =
+        new(2026, 5, 10, 18, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+    // ── Strategy helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    private static BacktestStrategy Flat(decimal bankroll = 1000m, decimal stake = 100m, decimal minScore = 0.30m) =>
+        new(StartingBankroll: bankroll, MinScore: minScore,
+            StakeRule: StakeRule.Flat,
+            FlatStake: stake, PercentOfBankroll: 0.02m, KellyFraction: 0.25m);
+
+    private static BacktestStrategy Percent(decimal pct = 0.10m, decimal bankroll = 1000m, decimal minScore = 0.30m) =>
+        new(StartingBankroll: bankroll, MinScore: minScore,
+            StakeRule: StakeRule.PercentOfBankroll,
+            FlatStake: 1m, PercentOfBankroll: pct, KellyFraction: 0.25m);
+
+    private static BacktestStrategy Kelly(decimal fraction = 1.0m, decimal bankroll = 1000m, decimal minScore = 0.30m) =>
+        new(StartingBankroll: bankroll, MinScore: minScore,
+            StakeRule: StakeRule.Kelly,
+            FlatStake: 1m, PercentOfBankroll: 0.02m, KellyFraction: fraction);
+
+    // ── Candidate helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    private static BacktestCandidate MakeCandidate(
+        DateTimeOffset detectedAt,
+        decimal score,
+        Side postFav,
+        Side winnerSide,
+        decimal postRate1 = 2.0m,
+        decimal postRate2 = 2.0m,
+        bool twoWay = false,
+        int s1 = 1, int s2 = 0)
+    {
+        var ev = BuildEvidence(postFav, postRate1, postRate2, twoWay);
+        var anomaly = new Anomaly(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: new EventId(detectedAt.Ticks.ToString()),
+            DetectedAt: detectedAt,
+            Kind: AnomalyKind.SuspensionFlip,
+            Score: score,
+            EvidenceJson: "{\"x\":0}"); // unused — evidence is passed in directly
+
+        var result = new EventResult(
+            EventId: anomaly.EventId,
+            Side1Score: s1, Side2Score: s2,
+            WinnerSide: winnerSide,
+            CompletedAt: detectedAt.AddHours(2));
+
+        return new BacktestCandidate(anomaly, ev, result, Sport: null);
+    }
+
+    private static AnomalyEvidenceData BuildEvidence(
+        Side postFav, decimal postRate1, decimal postRate2, bool twoWay)
+    {
+        // Construct probabilities consistent with the rates so the simulator's
+        // Kelly path has a meaningful p to read.
+        decimal p1 = 1m / postRate1;
+        decimal p2 = 1m / postRate2;
+        decimal? pDraw = twoWay ? null : (decimal?)(1m - p1 - p2);
+        decimal? rateDraw = twoWay ? null : (decimal?)5.0m;
+
+        // Normalise to 1.0 (mirrors AnomalyDetector's normalisation).
+        decimal total = p1 + p2 + (pDraw ?? 0m);
+        p1 /= total;
+        p2 /= total;
+        if (pDraw is not null) pDraw = pDraw.Value / total;
+
+        // Override the post-favourite side to actually be the highest probability —
+        // tests want to verify behaviour for that specific side being the favourite.
+        // We set the chosen side's prob to 0.6, distribute the rest.
+        switch (postFav)
+        {
+            case Side.Side1: p1 = 0.60m; p2 = twoWay ? 0.40m : 0.30m; pDraw = twoWay ? null : 0.10m; break;
+            case Side.Side2: p2 = 0.60m; p1 = twoWay ? 0.40m : 0.30m; pDraw = twoWay ? null : 0.10m; break;
+            case Side.Draw:  pDraw = 0.50m; p1 = 0.25m; p2 = 0.25m; break;
+        }
+
+        var preSide = new AnomalyEvidenceSide(
+            CapturedAt: BaseTime,
+            P1: p2, // pre = flipped (irrelevant to most tests)
+            PDraw: pDraw,
+            P2: p1,
+            Rate1: postRate2,
+            RateDraw: rateDraw,
+            Rate2: postRate1);
+
+        var postSide = new AnomalyEvidenceSide(
+            CapturedAt: BaseTime.AddMinutes(1),
+            P1: p1, PDraw: pDraw, P2: p2,
+            Rate1: postRate1, RateDraw: rateDraw, Rate2: postRate2);
+
+        return new AnomalyEvidenceData(60, preSide, postSide);
+    }
+
+    // ── Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnEmptyShell_When_NoCandidates()
+    {
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(), Array.Empty<BacktestCandidate>());
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(0);
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(1000m);
+        result.NetProfit.Should().Be(0m);
+        result.RoiPercent.Should().BeNull();
+        result.Trace.Should().BeEmpty();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_PlaceFlatBet_AndWin_PayoutEqualsStakeTimesRate()
+    {
+        // Stake 100 at rate 2.0 winning → +100 profit; bankroll 1000 → 1100.
+        var candidate = MakeCandidate(
+            detectedAt: BaseTime,
+            score: 0.50m,
+            postFav: Side.Side1,
+            winnerSide: Side.Side1,
+            postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), new[] { candidate });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Wins.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Losses.Should().Be(0);
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(1100m);
+        result.NetProfit.Should().Be(100m);
+        result.RoiPercent.Should().Be(100m, "+100 / 100 staked");
+        result.TotalStaked.Should().Be(100m);
+        result.TotalReturned.Should().Be(200m);
+        result.Trace.Single().IsWin.Should().BeTrue();
+        result.Trace.Single().Payout.Should().Be(200m);
+        result.Trace.Single().BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1100m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_PlaceFlatBet_AndLose_PayoutZero()
+    {
+        var candidate = MakeCandidate(
+            detectedAt: BaseTime,
+            score: 0.50m,
+            postFav: Side.Side1,
+            winnerSide: Side.Side2,
+            postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), new[] { candidate });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Losses.Should().Be(1);
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(900m);
+        result.NetProfit.Should().Be(-100m);
+        result.Trace.Single().IsWin.Should().BeFalse();
+        result.Trace.Single().Payout.Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_SkipCandidate_When_ScoreBelowThreshold()
+    {
+        var candidate = MakeCandidate(
+            detectedAt: BaseTime,
+            score: 0.20m,
+            postFav: Side.Side1,
+            winnerSide: Side.Side1);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(minScore: 0.50m), new[] { candidate });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(0);
+        result.Skipped.Should().Be(1);
+        result.SkippedByThreshold.Should().Be(1, "score 0.20 is below threshold 0.50");
+        result.SkippedByDataQuality.Should().Be(0);
+        result.SkippedByBankroll.Should().Be(0);
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(1000m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_SkipTwoWayCandidate_When_WinnerIsDraw()
+    {
+        // Tennis cannot draw — refuse to grade.
+        var candidate = MakeCandidate(
+            detectedAt: BaseTime,
+            score: 0.50m,
+            postFav: Side.Side1,
+            winnerSide: Side.Draw,
+            twoWay: true);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(), new[] { candidate });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(0);
+        result.Skipped.Should().Be(1);
+        result.SkippedByDataQuality.Should().Be(1, "two-way market with draw winner is structurally impossible");
+        result.SkippedByThreshold.Should().Be(0);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ProcessCandidates_InChronologicalOrder()
+    {
+        // Provide out-of-order — simulator must sort by DetectedAt.
+        var c1 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(0), 0.50m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+        var c2 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(1), 0.50m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 2.0m);
+        var c3 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(2), 0.50m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), new[] { c3, c1, c2 });
+
+        result.Trace.Select(t => t.DetectedAt).Should().BeInAscendingOrder();
+        // Bankroll: 1000 → 1100 (win) → 1000 (loss) → 1100 (win)
+        result.Trace[0].BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1100m);
+        result.Trace[1].BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1000m);
+        result.Trace[2].BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1100m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_TrackMaxDrawdown_Across_Losses()
+    {
+        // 5 candidates: W W L L L → bankroll 1000 → 1100 → 1200 → 1100 → 1000 → 900
+        // Peak = 1200, trough = 900, max drawdown = 300.
+        var cands = new[]
+        {
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(0), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m),
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(1), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m),
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(2), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 2.0m),
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(3), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 2.0m),
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(4), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 2.0m),
+        };
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), cands);
+
+        result.MaxDrawdown.Should().Be(300m);
+        result.MaxDrawdownPercent.Should().Be(25m, "300 / 1200 = 25 %");
+        result.MaxLossStreak.Should().Be(3);
+        result.MaxWinStreak.Should().Be(2);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_CompoundBankroll_With_PercentOfBankrollRule()
+    {
+        // 10 % of bankroll. Bankroll 1000 → bet 100 at 2.0 win → 1100 → bet 110 at 2.0 win → 1210.
+        var c1 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(0), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+        var c2 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(1), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Percent(pct: 0.10m), new[] { c1, c2 });
+
+        result.Trace[0].Stake.Should().Be(100m);
+        result.Trace[0].BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1100m);
+        result.Trace[1].Stake.Should().Be(110m);
+        result.Trace[1].BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1210m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Kelly_Should_StakeZero_When_EdgeIsNegative()
+    {
+        // Post-favourite has 60% prob at rate 1.50 → b = 0.5, p = 0.6, q = 0.4.
+        // Full Kelly = (0.5*0.6 - 0.4) / 0.5 = (0.30 - 0.40) / 0.5 = -0.20 → no bet.
+        var c = MakeCandidate(BaseTime, 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 1.50m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Kelly(fraction: 1.0m), new[] { c });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(0);
+        result.Skipped.Should().Be(1);
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(1000m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Kelly_Should_StakePositive_When_EdgeIsPositive()
+    {
+        // Post-favourite has 60% prob (set inside BuildEvidence) at rate 2.0 → b = 1, p = 0.6, q = 0.4.
+        // Full Kelly = (1*0.6 - 0.4) / 1 = 0.20. Stake = 0.20 * 1000 = 200.
+        var c = MakeCandidate(BaseTime, 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Kelly(fraction: 1.0m), new[] { c });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(1);
+        // BankrollAfter on a win at rate 2.0 with stake 200 = 1000 - 200 + 400 = 1200.
+        result.Trace.Single().Stake.Should().Be(200m);
+        result.Trace.Single().BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1200m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void QuarterKelly_Should_StakeAQuarterOfFullKelly()
+    {
+        // Same setup as Kelly_Should_StakePositive but fraction 0.25 → stake 50.
+        var c = MakeCandidate(BaseTime, 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Kelly(fraction: 0.25m), new[] { c });
+
+        result.Trace.Single().Stake.Should().Be(50m);
+        result.Trace.Single().BankrollAfter.Should().Be(1050m, "1000 - 50 + 100");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_SkipBet_When_StakeExceedsBankroll()
+    {
+        // Starting bankroll 500, flat stake 500 each bet.
+        // c1 loses → bankroll 0.  c2 + c3 then can't be sized (stake > bankroll).
+        var c1 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(0), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 2.0m);
+        var c2 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(1), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 2.0m);
+        var c3 = MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(2), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(bankroll: 500m, stake: 500m), new[] { c1, c2, c3 });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Skipped.Should().Be(2);
+        result.SkippedByBankroll.Should().Be(2, "bankroll empty / stake too large");
+        result.FinalBankroll.Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_PickDeepestDrawdown_AcrossMultipleWindows()
+    {
+        // Two drawdown windows: 1000→1100→1050 (dd=50), then 1050→1250→1100 (dd=150).
+        // Max drawdown should be the second window (150), not the first.
+        var cands = new[]
+        {
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(0), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m), // win  → 1100
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(1), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 1.5m), // loss → 1050
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(2), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 3.0m), // win  → 1250
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(3), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 1.5m), // loss → 1150
+            MakeCandidate(BaseTime.AddHours(4), 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side2, postRate1: 1.5m), // loss → 1050
+        };
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), cands);
+
+        // Window 1: peak 1100 → trough 1050 = 50 drop.
+        // Window 2: peak 1250 → trough 1050 = 200 drop.
+        // (Bankroll path: 1000 → 1100 → 1050 → 1250 → 1150 → 1050)
+        result.MaxDrawdown.Should().Be(200m);
+        result.MaxDrawdownPercent.Should().Be(16.67m, "200 / 1200 ≈ 16.67 % (peak was 1200 not 1250)");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_HandleDrawFavourite_Win()
+    {
+        // 3-way market, post-flip favourite is Draw, event ends in Draw → win.
+        var c = MakeCandidate(
+            detectedAt: BaseTime,
+            score: 0.5m,
+            postFav: Side.Draw,
+            winnerSide: Side.Draw,
+            twoWay: false);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), new[] { c });
+
+        result.BetsPlaced.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Wins.Should().Be(1);
+        result.Trace.Single().PostFlipFavourite.Should().Be(Side.Draw);
+        result.Trace.Single().IsWin.Should().BeTrue();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_PassEventTitles_Through_ToResult()
+    {
+        var c = MakeCandidate(BaseTime, 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+        var titles = new Dictionary<Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects.EventId, string>
+        {
+            [c.Anomaly.EventId] = "Arsenal vs Chelsea",
+        };
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), new[] { c }, titles);
+
+        result.EventTitles.Should().ContainKey(c.Anomaly.EventId);
+        result.EventTitles[c.Anomaly.EventId].Should().Be("Arsenal vs Chelsea");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnEmptyEventTitles_When_NoneProvided()
+    {
+        var c = MakeCandidate(BaseTime, 0.5m, Side.Side1, Side.Side1, postRate1: 2.0m);
+
+        var result = BacktestSimulator.Run(Flat(stake: 100m), new[] { c });
+
+        result.EventTitles.Should().NotBeNull().And.BeEmpty();
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/Betting/BetOutcomeResolverTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.Betting;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.Betting;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Unit tests for <see cref="BetOutcomeResolver"/> across every bet type +
+/// every important boundary (handicap push, total push, period-scope null).
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class BetOutcomeResolverTests
+{
+    private static readonly EventId EventId = new("12345678");
+
+    // ── Win bets ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, Side.Side1, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, Side.Side2, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, Side.Draw, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side2, Side.Side2, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side2, Side.Side1, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    public void Should_GradeWinBet(Side selectionSide, Side winner, BetOutcome expected)
+    {
+        var bet = MakeBet(BetType.Win, selectionSide);
+        var result = MakeResult(winner);
+
+        BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet, result).Should().Be(expected);
+    }
+
+    // ── Draw bets ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(Side.Draw, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    [InlineData(Side.Side2, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    public void Should_GradeDrawBet(Side winner, BetOutcome expected)
+    {
+        var bet = MakeBet(BetType.Draw, Side.Draw);
+        var result = MakeResult(winner, 1, 1);
+
+        BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet, result).Should().Be(expected);
+    }
+
+    // ── Handicap (WinFora) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Theory]
+    // Side1 with +1.5 handicap; final 0-2 → adjusted 1.5 vs 2 → loss
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, 1.5, 0, 2, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    // Side1 with +1.5; final 1-2 → adjusted 2.5 vs 2 → win
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, 1.5, 1, 2, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    // Side1 with -1.5; final 3-1 → adjusted 1.5 vs 1 → win
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, -1.5, 3, 1, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    // Whole-number handicap that ties: Side1 +1, final 1-2 → 2 vs 2 → push (Void)
+    [InlineData(Side.Side1, 1, 1, 2, BetOutcome.Void)]
+    // Side2 with -1; final 0-2 → adjusted Side2 1 vs Side1 0 → win
+    [InlineData(Side.Side2, -1, 0, 2, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    public void Should_GradeHandicapBet(
+        Side side, double handicap, int s1, int s2, BetOutcome expected)
+    {
+        var bet = new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.WinFora, side,
+            new OddsValue((decimal)handicap), new OddsRate(1.85m));
+        var result = new EventResult(EventId, s1, s2,
+            DeriveWinner(s1, s2), DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);
+
+        BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet, result).Should().Be(expected);
+    }
+
+    // ── Totals ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Theory]
+    // Over 2.5; total 3 → win
+    [InlineData(Side.More, 2.5, 1, 2, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    // Over 2.5; total 2 → loss
+    [InlineData(Side.More, 2.5, 0, 2, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    // Over 3.0; total 3 → push (Void)
+    [InlineData(Side.More, 3.0, 1, 2, BetOutcome.Void)]
+    // Under 2.5; total 2 → win
+    [InlineData(Side.Less, 2.5, 1, 1, BetOutcome.Won)]
+    // Under 2.5; total 3 → loss
+    [InlineData(Side.Less, 2.5, 1, 2, BetOutcome.Lost)]
+    public void Should_GradeTotalBet(
+        Side side, double threshold, int s1, int s2, BetOutcome expected)
+    {
+        var bet = new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Total, side,
+            new OddsValue((decimal)threshold), new OddsRate(1.85m));
+        var result = new EventResult(EventId, s1, s2,
+            DeriveWinner(s1, s2), DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);
+
+        BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet, result).Should().Be(expected);
+    }
+
+    // ── Period-scope guard ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnNull_When_BetScopeIsPeriod()
+    {
+        var bet = new Bet(new PeriodScope(1), BetType.Win, Side.Side1,
+            value: null, new OddsRate(2.10m));
+        var result = MakeResult(Side.Side1);
+
+        BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(bet, result).Should().BeNull(
+            "period scope cannot be graded from full-time score alone");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_Throw_When_BetOrResultIsNull()
+    {
+        ((Action)(() => BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(null!, MakeResult(Side.Side1))))
+            .Should().Throw<ArgumentNullException>();
+        ((Action)(() => BetOutcomeResolver.Resolve(MakeBet(BetType.Win, Side.Side1), null!)))
+            .Should().Throw<ArgumentNullException>();
+    }
+
+    // ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    private static Bet MakeBet(BetType type, Side side) =>
+        new(MatchScope.Instance, type, side, value: null, new OddsRate(2.00m));
+
+    private static EventResult MakeResult(Side winner, int s1 = 1, int s2 = 0) =>
+        new(EventId, s1, s2, winner, DateTimeOffset.UtcNow);
+
+    private static Side DeriveWinner(int s1, int s2) =>
+        s1 == s2 ? Side.Draw : (s1 > s2 ? Side.Side1 : Side.Side2);
+}

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/Betting/KellyCalculatorTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.Betting;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.Betting;
+
+public sealed class KellyCalculatorTests
+{
+    // ── SuggestStake: edge handling ───────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnZeroStake_When_NoPositiveEdge()
+    {
+        // p·o = 0.50 × 1.90 = 0.95 < 1 → negative edge.
+        var stake = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(
+            winProbability: 0.50m, decimalOdds: 1.90m, bankroll: 1000m);
+
+        stake.Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnZeroStake_When_ExactlyBreakeven()
+    {
+        // p·o = 0.50 × 2.00 = 1 → zero edge.
+        var stake = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(
+            winProbability: 0.50m, decimalOdds: 2.00m, bankroll: 1000m);
+
+        stake.Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_SizeQuarterKellyStake_When_PositiveEdge()
+    {
+        // full = (0.55×2.10 − 1)/(2.10 − 1) = 0.155/1.10 = 0.140909…
+        // quarter = 0.0352272… × 1000 = 35.2272… → truncated to 35.22.
+        var stake = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(
+            winProbability: 0.55m, decimalOdds: 2.10m, bankroll: 1000m, fraction: 0.25m);
+
+        stake.Should().Be(35.22m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_UseFullKelly_When_FractionIsOne()
+    {
+        // full = (0.60×2.00 − 1)/(2.00 − 1) = 0.20 → 0.20 × 1000 = 200.
+        var stake = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(
+            winProbability: 0.60m, decimalOdds: 2.00m, bankroll: 1000m, fraction: 1.0m);
+
+        stake.Should().Be(200m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ScaleStake_Proportionally_WithBankroll()
+    {
+        var small = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(0.60m, 2.00m, bankroll: 500m, fraction: 1.0m);
+        var large = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(0.60m, 2.00m, bankroll: 1000m, fraction: 1.0m);
+
+        small.Should().Be(100m);
+        large.Should().Be(200m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_NeverExceedComputedFigure_When_Truncating()
+    {
+        // Raw quarter-Kelly stake is 35.2272…; the suggestion must floor, not round up.
+        var stake = KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(0.55m, 2.10m, bankroll: 1000m, fraction: 0.25m);
+
+        stake.Should().BeLessThanOrEqualTo(0.25m * KellyCalculator.FullKellyFraction(0.55m, 2.10m) * 1000m);
+    }
+
+    // ── FullKellyFraction ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void FullKellyFraction_Should_ComputeEdgeFraction()
+    {
+        KellyCalculator.FullKellyFraction(0.55m, 2.10m)
+            .Should().BeApproximately(0.140909m, 0.000001m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void FullKellyFraction_Should_BeNegative_When_NoEdge()
+    {
+        KellyCalculator.FullKellyFraction(0.40m, 2.00m).Should().Be(-0.20m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void FullKellyFraction_Should_BeZero_When_Breakeven()
+    {
+        KellyCalculator.FullKellyFraction(0.50m, 2.00m).Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    // ── Guard clauses ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(0.0)]
+    [InlineData(1.0)]
+    [InlineData(-0.1)]
+    [InlineData(1.1)]
+    public void SuggestStake_Should_Throw_When_ProbabilityOutOfOpenInterval(double probability)
+    {
+        var act = () => KellyCalculator.SuggestStake((decimal)probability, 2.0m, 1000m);
+
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+    }
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(1.0)]
+    [InlineData(0.5)]
+    public void SuggestStake_Should_Throw_When_OddsNotGreaterThanOne(double odds)
+    {
+        var act = () => KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(0.55m, (decimal)odds, 1000m);
+
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void SuggestStake_Should_Throw_When_BankrollNegative()
+    {
+        var act = () => KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(0.55m, 2.10m, bankroll: -1m);
+
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+    }
+
+    [Theory]
+    [InlineData(0.0)]
+    [InlineData(-0.25)]
+    [InlineData(1.5)]
+    public void SuggestStake_Should_Throw_When_FractionOutOfRange(double fraction)
+    {
+        var act = () => KellyCalculator.SuggestStake(0.55m, 2.10m, 1000m, (decimal)fraction);
+
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>();
+    }
+}

tests/Marathon.Domain.Tests/Entities/PlacedBetTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+using FluentAssertions;
+using Marathon.Domain.Entities;
+using Marathon.Domain.Enums;
+using Marathon.Domain.ValueObjects;
+
+namespace Marathon.Domain.Tests.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Invariants and derived-property tests for <see cref="PlacedBet"/>.
+/// </summary>
+public sealed class PlacedBetTests
+{
+    private static readonly TimeSpan MoscowOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(3);
+    private static readonly DateTimeOffset MoscowMoment =
+        new(2026, 5, 16, 12, 0, 0, MoscowOffset);
+
+    private static PlacedBet Make(BetOutcome outcome, decimal rate = 2.10m, decimal stake = 100m) =>
+        new(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: new EventId("12345678"),
+            Selection: new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1,
+                value: null, new OddsRate(rate)),
+            Stake: stake,
+            PlacedAt: MoscowMoment,
+            Outcome: outcome,
+            Notes: null);
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ComputeWonReturn_As_StakeTimesRate()
+    {
+        var bet = Make(BetOutcome.Won, rate: 2.10m, stake: 100m);
+
+        bet.GrossReturn.Should().Be(210m);
+        bet.NetProfit.Should().Be(110m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ComputeLossReturn_As_Zero()
+    {
+        var bet = Make(BetOutcome.Lost, stake: 50m);
+
+        bet.GrossReturn.Should().Be(0m);
+        bet.NetProfit.Should().Be(-50m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnStake_When_Outcome_IsVoid()
+    {
+        var bet = Make(BetOutcome.Void, stake: 75m);
+
+        bet.GrossReturn.Should().Be(75m);
+        bet.NetProfit.Should().Be(0m);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_ReturnNullProfit_When_OutcomeIsPending()
+    {
+        var bet = Make(BetOutcome.Pending);
+
+        bet.GrossReturn.Should().BeNull();
+        bet.NetProfit.Should().BeNull();
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void WithOutcome_Should_ReturnNewInstance_With_GradedOutcome()
+    {
+        var pending = Make(BetOutcome.Pending);
+        var graded = pending.WithOutcome(BetOutcome.Won);
+
+        graded.Should().NotBeSameAs(pending);
+        graded.Outcome.Should().Be(BetOutcome.Won);
+        graded.Id.Should().Be(pending.Id);
+        graded.Stake.Should().Be(pending.Stake);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_Throw_When_StakeIsZeroOrNegative()
+    {
+        var act = () => new PlacedBet(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: new EventId("11111111"),
+            Selection: new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m)),
+            Stake: 0m,
+            PlacedAt: MoscowMoment,
+            Outcome: BetOutcome.Pending,
+            Notes: null);
+
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentOutOfRangeException>().WithMessage("*Stake*");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_Throw_When_PlacedAt_IsNotMoscowOffset()
+    {
+        var act = () => new PlacedBet(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: new EventId("11111111"),
+            Selection: new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m)),
+            Stake: 100m,
+            PlacedAt: DateTimeOffset.UtcNow, // UTC offset, not Moscow
+            Outcome: BetOutcome.Pending,
+            Notes: null);
+
+        act.Should().Throw<ArgumentException>().WithMessage("*Moscow*");
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Should_NormaliseWhitespace_Notes_To_Null()
+    {
+        var bet = new PlacedBet(
+            Id: Guid.NewGuid(),
+            EventId: new EventId("11111111"),
+            Selection: new Bet(MatchScope.Instance, BetType.Win, Side.Side1, null, new OddsRate(2m)),
+            Stake: 100m,
+            PlacedAt: MoscowMoment,
+            Outcome: BetOutcome.Pending,
+            Notes: "   ");
+
+        bet.Notes.Should().BeNull();
+    }
+}